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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Huge bust potential just in Franklin county alone.  Imagine having to make a forecast.

Idk, depends on if you're basing your forecast on the location of the low or the strength of the low overpowering the high. We all know WAA is a killer around here but not usually in a setup like this. For example... on the GEM the low makes it from central KY to Wheeling yet stays snow further southeast than the GFS who's low was further south and never really comes close to Wheeling. That alone makes little sense to me. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can explain it.

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Just now, dilly84 said:

Idk, depends on if you're basing your forecast on the location of the low or the strength of the low overpowering the high. We all know WAA is a killer around here but not usually in a setup like this. For example... on the GEM the low makes it from central KY to Wheeling yet stays snow further southeast than the GFS who's low was further south and never really comes close to Wheeling. That alone makes little sense to me. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can explain it.

Agree...i'm running through these maps drooling over the low tracks and yet we're struggling precip issues. The gfs is the most confounding.  This isn't back in december, when we had great tracks but no cold air.   We have plenty of cold, both antecedent and fresh coming in..:arrowhead:I

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Just now, buckeye said:

Agree...i'm running through these maps drooling over the low tracks and yet we're struggling precip issues. The gfs is the most confounding.  This isn't back in december, when we had great tracks but no cold air.   We have plenty of cold, both antecedent and fresh coming in..:arrowhead:I

I agree. I think even if the track stays the same the snow line will be closer to the Ohio River 

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Fv3 gonna do the same as the GFS? Low in NW Arkansas at hr 60, but can already see where the rain snow line will set up it appears. I'll guess a line from Cincinnati to Lisbon. I mean I dont wanna look stupid, but I just can't make sense of where some of these models show the low, yet not much snow with em. 

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UK met looks like it’d be a crush job for central/maybe southern OH. Crudely looking at the 24 hour plots it’s in the low 990s over KY and probably gets to near Charleston before transferring to off the Delmarva.  The GFS and CMC did inch towards less phasing this run though the changes weren’t huge.  Euro will be interesting... 

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2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

UK met looks like it’d be a crush job for central/maybe southern OH. Crudely looking at the 24 hour plots it’s in the low 990s over KY and probably gets to near Charleston before transferring to off the Delmarva.  The GFS and CMC did inch towards less phasing this run though the changes weren’t huge.  Euro will be interesting... 

That's the favored track tonight and yet we're tainting like heck on all the models

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2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

UK met looks like it’d be a crush job for central/maybe southern OH. Crudely looking at the 24 hour plots it’s in the low 990s over KY and probably gets to near Charleston before transferring to off the Delmarva.  The GFS and CMC did inch towards less phasing this run though the changes weren’t huge.  Euro will be interesting... 

Hey Jim, read above and explain my question. You're probably one of the most intelligent on this board maybe you can answer. Was the longer post 

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2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

UK met looks like it’d be a crush job for central/maybe southern OH. Crudely looking at the 24 hour plots it’s in the low 990s over KY and probably gets to near Charleston before transferring to off the Delmarva.  The GFS and CMC did inch towards less phasing this run though the changes weren’t huge.  Euro will be interesting... 

Thanks for the insights!

Funny that the UKMET's track isn't a huge difference from the GFS, yet the precip types are worlds apart!

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

That's the favored track tonight and yet we're tainting like heck on all the models

This may be one of those rare setups where it inches a little colder closer in.  The GFS put the "L" over KY, but has a pretty strong little surface circulation up to just NW of Wheeling, so I think that's why it pulls more warm air in.  Canadian is north of the UK's low track and just misses crushing Columbus.  The UK is a little more compact with the low.  The 12z UK was rather snowy, will see if I can spot the 0z snow map floating around anywhere before I go to sleep. 

29 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Idk, depends on if you're basing your forecast on the location of the low or the strength of the low overpowering the high. We all know WAA is a killer around here but not usually in a setup like this. For example... on the GEM the low makes it from central KY to Wheeling yet stays snow further southeast than the GFS who's low was further south and never really comes close to Wheeling. That alone makes little sense to me. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can explain it.

The GFS takes the 850mb low well northwest of its surface low track, a bit NW of Columbus to just south of Erie.  The CMC looks a little bit more stacked.  The 850mb low is a good indicator for how far north mid-level warmth will come and the GFS was a good bit farther NW, despite where it put the surface low.  I ultimately don't like the GFS's surface depication at all, looks like it may be having convective feedback issues and it's known to be horrible with low-level temps.  

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This hobby is like crack.,,wth am I doing up at 1230 waiting for the euro?  I have a breakfast meeting in the morning and I'm gonna have sand bags under my eyes.  And sure enough someone will say, "I hear we're suppose to get a snowstorm".  To which ill reply, "really?  how much they calling for?" 

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