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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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4 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

18z GFS has the low move through southern KY and reforms in VA, still the same precip issues here. Normally a perfect track for us.

 

The initial low goes all the way up to southern Indiana, which surges warm air in our area and we literally get no snow.  Awful run.

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4 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

 

The initial low goes all the way up to southern Indiana, which surges warm air in our area and we literally get no snow.  Awful run.

Usually that track is perfect. Never gets further than that and goes east through southern ky. Should be perfect but isn't. I'm sticking with ptype issues from the models. Makes little sense to have cold air rushing in with a low in southeast ky and still raining.gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.thumb.png.41b217378c0272204c9d22993302d2d8.png

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Just now, buckeye said:

I wouldn't sweat the gfs. Looks like it's having issues where to put a surface low at he 72-78.   Could actually be on its way to a ukie type solution.

Man I hope you're right ..getting tired of getting screwed every which way.. it's time for us to finally get one.!!! If we don't finally get a big one this year this might be my last year making this thread.. because the older I get the more stressed  out it makes me!!:fever:

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I wouldn't sweat the gfs. Looks like it's having issues where to put a surface low at he 72-78.   Could actually be on its way to a ukie type solution.

Yea, the fact that previous runs had the low riding up into PA and now show a sharp right turn indicates the model may be in the middle of course correcting. I'm not sweating the thermals.

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1 minute ago, Steve said:

Man I hope you're right ..getting tired of getting screwed every which way.. it's time for us to finally get one.!!! If we don't finally get a big one this year this might be my last year making this thread.. because the older I get the more stressed  out it makes me!!:fever:

Steve, I'd rather have the Euro/UKMET on our side than the GFS/GEM. Heck, even the NAM is colder for us.

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55 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Icon similar to 12z takes low to KY then redevelops in VA. Same ptype issues though  where it brings thunderstorms which buckeye and I was talking about earlier not thinking that's correct. 

It's actually below freezing at the surface.  ICON doesn't plot mixed precip for some reason.

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Just now, Jackstraw said:

That GFS run was like Snowfreak cranked the magnet to 11 then blew the power grid releasing the low to jump back east lol.

Yea, an odd run. I think the main takeaway is the trend away from the low moving up into PA and that hard right turn. It's like the GFS has seen the latest Euro runs and is having second thoughts. lol

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I think it's the timeframe when the low goes from n. ARK to southern IN that it gets screwy.  Then suddenly it's over s. WV.  Maybe that's posdible maybe this does go further NW, but there's no way that solution verifies.

Agreed. I think it will bodes well for future runs.

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So the 18z euro still looks really good. A little further north than the 12z but still would not have mixing issues in central Ohio.   This tells me the 00z run should be pretty good.

I have a stormvista subscription and I've been following the 06 and 18z euro runs.  They've been pretty good indicators of how the next run is going to trend.  For instance yesterday's 18z had the sudden southeast shift that occurred at 00z, and today's 06z still showed,the southeast solution.  Both times successfully predicting the next trend.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

So the 18z euro still looks really good. A little further north than the 12z but still would not have mixing issues in central Ohio.   This tells me the 00z run should be pretty good.

I have a stormvista subscription and I've been following the 06 and 18z euro runs.  They've been pretty good indicators of how the next run is going to trend.  For instance yesterday's 18z had the sudden southeast shift that occurred at 00z, and today's 06z still showed,the southeast solution.  Both times successfully predicting the next trend.

Eventually one of the two model camps is going to cave. I think that goofy 18z GFS run speaks for itself.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

So the 18z euro still looks really good. A little further north than the 12z but still would not have mixing issues in central Ohio.   This tells me the 00z run should be pretty good.

I have a stormvista subscription and I've been following the 06 and 18z euro runs.  They've been pretty good indicators of how the next run is going to trend.  For instance yesterday's 18z had the sudden southeast shift that occurred at 00z, and today's 06z still showed,the southeast solution.  Both times successfully predicting the next trend.

Ptype maps still showed mixing issues. And I'll be honest, it kind of worries me that many are showing it. While I like the position of the low, the fact they're showing mixing issues tells me they know something I dont.

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3 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Ptype maps still showed mixing issues. And I'll be honest, it kind of worries me that many are showing it. While I like the position of the low, the fact they're showing mixing issues tells me they know something I dont.

We're not going to mix beyond maybe some nuisance embedded sleet if a low travels from ARK to WV with a fresh Arctic high pushing.  I don't care what the soundings say. 

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

So the 18z euro still looks really good. A little further north than the 12z but still would not have mixing issues in central Ohio.   This tells me the 00z run should be pretty good.

I have a stormvista subscription and I've been following the 06 and 18z euro runs.  They've been pretty good indicators of how the next run is going to trend.  For instance yesterday's 18z had the sudden southeast shift that occurred at 00z, and today's 06z still showed,the southeast solution.  Both times successfully predicting the next trend.

I had no idea there was a 6z & 18z euro run. When did this start?

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