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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It would lay down snow.   At the point it crosses into WV and gets closer to the OH river, we might mix up here, but that track as depicted with all other features on the map is a raging snowstorm for us.

GFS same scenario. Great track. Ptypes screwed up. Has the low go from TN to eastern Kentucky but shows zr and rain for i70 south. Guess we're throwing out the ptype maps

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Anyone know why the NAM has been consistently showing all snow for the weak Thursday system, while every other model has been showing a messy mix? Is it just because the NAM sucks and is wrong? Or could the NAM be picking up the cold air better? And if so, might that have any implications for the weekend storm? So many questions... 

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essentially, if we want a gfs with more cold we need to root for the system to slow down a bit to allow the northern branch to get out front.   The more they line up, the more likely some phasing occurs.  That's what the gem is doing, it's phasing a bit down in the central plains which  causes it to climb further north before it gets shoved east by the high. 

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2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

It just updated. Low goes from Central ky to around Athens. Just need 25 miles SE and we're golden with the gem

if you look at the panel at 90 hrs on tt you can see the low in Athens but you can also see it reforming on the TN//NC border....that takes over as the primary on the next frame and continues northeast up the apps.     That's a probably a good sign that this might actually trend further south.

still lots to work out.  I originally thought we'd have answers after today's 12z runs....  scratch that.  We have another 24 hours before we have a general idea of what's going to happen.

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

if you look at the panel at 90 hrs on tt you can see the low in Athens but you can also see it reforming on the TN//NC border....that takes over as the primary on the next frame and continues northeast up the apps.     That's a probably a good sign that this might actually trend further south.

still lots to work out.  I originally thought we'd have answers after today's 12z runs....  scratch that.  We have another 24 hours before we have a general idea of what's going to happen.

I said tomorrow's 12z runs SHOULD start to have the general track. However, today's runs have been great if you're in the i70 corridor.

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TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Snow is expected on Thursday morning, mixing with rain in the afternoon. will generally be up to an inch, with isolated amounts of up to an inch and a half.

A strong winter storm will bring the potential for mixed precipitation to the area.  Current forecasts of this mixed precipitation favors the potential for significant snow and sleet along and north of the I-70 corridor, with less snow and sleet, but significant freezing rain south of the I-70 corridor but north of the Ohio River.

An Arctic airmass will bring gusty winds Saturday night with bitterly cold subzero wind chills possible Sunday night into Monday.
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ukie looks good but really wish I had a panel between 72 and 96hr.     At 72 its a 1003 low in eastern OK, at 96 it's a 999 low in southern WV.   Looks great but the models have been doing that funky move with the low getting dangerously close to OH and then reforming south and east.   An 84 hr panel would shed some lght on that.

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Yea I just saw an animation.   What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south?

As well as the ptype issues considering most models has the low from tn/ky to wv while redeveloping. Can't say I've seen that too often 

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yea I just saw an animation.   What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south?

I think the PV and high pressure put a cap on its northernmost potential which is why it redevelops, but the 12z GFS and CMC phase it early enough to start cutting before it runs into the wall to its north.  I’m not quite sure if central Ohio can get away with an early phase and stay all snow and get over a foot...northern Ohio can.  I think you want to root for a weaker/later phase which would cut down on max potential but prevent that cut before it redevelops.  I still think there’s enough juice for 8-12” even with a sloppy phase that keeps the low farther south.  Curious to see what the Euro does in a little bit for sure. 

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