dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, buckeye said: It would lay down snow. At the point it crosses into WV and gets closer to the OH river, we might mix up here, but that track as depicted with all other features on the map is a raging snowstorm for us. GFS same scenario. Great track. Ptypes screwed up. Has the low go from TN to eastern Kentucky but shows zr and rain for i70 south. Guess we're throwing out the ptype maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yea, I don't know what to make of it. Perfect tracks with mixed precip instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: GFS same scenario. Great track. Ptypes screwed up. Has the low go from TN to eastern Kentucky but shows zr and rain for i70 south. Guess we're throwing out the ptype maps I'll take my chances with a track like that. Pretty close to identical to the 6z too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Anyone know why the NAM has been consistently showing all snow for the weak Thursday system, while every other model has been showing a messy mix? Is it just because the NAM sucks and is wrong? Or could the NAM be picking up the cold air better? And if so, might that have any implications for the weekend storm? So many questions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 gem still too far north, but trended south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: gem still too far north, but trended south What site are you using that models update so fast. Using tidbits to hr 66 looks like it may be another perfect track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: What site are you using that models update so fast storm vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: storm vista It just updated. Low goes from Central ky to around Athens. Just need 25 miles SE and we're golden with the gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 essentially, if we want a gfs with more cold we need to root for the system to slow down a bit to allow the northern branch to get out front. The more they line up, the more likely some phasing occurs. That's what the gem is doing, it's phasing a bit down in the central plains which causes it to climb further north before it gets shoved east by the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If the GEM followed the same track as the GFS we would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: It just updated. Low goes from Central ky to around Athens. Just need 25 miles SE and we're golden with the gem if you look at the panel at 90 hrs on tt you can see the low in Athens but you can also see it reforming on the TN//NC border....that takes over as the primary on the next frame and continues northeast up the apps. That's a probably a good sign that this might actually trend further south. still lots to work out. I originally thought we'd have answers after today's 12z runs.... scratch that. We have another 24 hours before we have a general idea of what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: if you look at the panel at 90 hrs on tt you can see the low in Athens but you can also see it reforming on the TN//NC border....that takes over as the primary on the next frame and continues northeast up the apps. That's a probably a good sign that this might actually trend further south. still lots to work out. I originally thought we'd have answers after today's 12z runs.... scratch that. We have another 24 hours before we have a general idea of what's going to happen. I said tomorrow's 12z runs SHOULD start to have the general track. However, today's runs have been great if you're in the i70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Dudes! Jym Ganahl is in the house! Edit, nope not him, a fan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, HighTechEE said: Dudes! Jym Ganahl is in the house! Edit, nope not him, a fan... lol.... I just asked the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ...someone should invite him over here. How awesome would it be to have a veteran Columbus met doing analysis for Central Ohio on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, dilly84 said: I said tomorrow's 12z runs SHOULD start to have the general track. However, today's runs have been great if you're in the i70 corridor. they were ok, but we still need a little less amping... but we're damn close and hopefully things don't go the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS does it all over again next Tuesday....an almost IDENTICAL situation except it would be warmer for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Snow is expected on Thursday morning, mixing with rain in the afternoon. will generally be up to an inch, with isolated amounts of up to an inch and a half. A strong winter storm will bring the potential for mixed precipitation to the area. Current forecasts of this mixed precipitation favors the potential for significant snow and sleet along and north of the I-70 corridor, with less snow and sleet, but significant freezing rain south of the I-70 corridor but north of the Ohio River. An Arctic airmass will bring gusty winds Saturday night with bitterly cold subzero wind chills possible Sunday night into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ukie looks good but really wish I had a panel between 72 and 96hr. At 72 its a 1003 low in eastern OK, at 96 it's a 999 low in southern WV. Looks great but the models have been doing that funky move with the low getting dangerously close to OH and then reforming south and east. An 84 hr panel would shed some lght on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z UK takes the primary to just east of Charleston...not sure on temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 How does the Ukie handle sleet on the snow map? Is it listed as snow accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 FV3 puts the hammer down fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, OHweather said: 12z UK takes the primary to just east of Charleston...not sure on temp profiles. Yea I just saw an animation. What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 IWX and CLE just tweeted they dont think there will be a clear idea on track until tomorrow's runs, the sampling is going on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: Yea I just saw an animation. What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south? As well as the ptype issues considering most models has the low from tn/ky to wv while redeveloping. Can't say I've seen that too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: Yea I just saw an animation. What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south? I think the PV and high pressure put a cap on its northernmost potential which is why it redevelops, but the 12z GFS and CMC phase it early enough to start cutting before it runs into the wall to its north. I’m not quite sure if central Ohio can get away with an early phase and stay all snow and get over a foot...northern Ohio can. I think you want to root for a weaker/later phase which would cut down on max potential but prevent that cut before it redevelops. I still think there’s enough juice for 8-12” even with a sloppy phase that keeps the low farther south. Curious to see what the Euro does in a little bit for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GEFS is reassuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GEFS is reassuring looked a tad nw, but small enough to be noise from a couple overly-amped members. In fact there's a couple of members that take the low into northeast OH. Take those out and it's probably a tad se of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 so far what I see on the euro, out 72, it'll hold serve if not end up further southeast than 00z.... still early but that's the early look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 won't be any mixing issues anywhere near i-70....should be a good hit, possibly a bit drier though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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