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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

You must be looking at the wrong one.  Gefs and it's members are the best run we've seen wrt this cluster storm yet.

Yea I was. Was looking at day 4 type. Mean looks like operational. Many have it well north of i70 though. Idk tonight's runs were a mess, and I agree with you its nonsense to have had the consensus we've had for days for any consensus to fall apart 4 days out. 

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This kind of reminds me of the storm last January 12th where the models really blew up the storm and drilled northern Ohio, but a progressive northern stream caused it to trend weaker/less phased 3-4 days out and central and southern Ohio got a moderate storm.  Different setup here for sure, but same kind of result with negative northern stream influence due to the polar vortex preventing a good phase and wound up solution.  

Given the great thermal gradient/jet/abundant moisture I could still see an 8-12” swath even with a less amped solution...given the trend I-70 is definitely in play for that. 

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5 minutes ago, OHweather said:

This kind of reminds me of the storm last January 12th where the models really blew up the storm and drilled northern Ohio, but a progressive northern stream caused it to trend weaker/less phased 3-4 days out and central and southern Ohio got a moderate storm.  Different setup here for sure, but same kind of result with negative northern stream influence due to the polar vortex preventing a good phase and wound up solution.  

Given the great thermal gradient/jet/abundant moisture I could still see an 8-12” swath even with a less amped solution...given the trend I-70 is definitely in play for that. 

Miss your insights, glad to see you here!

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1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

Icon looks nice. Real nice thunderstorms across central Ohio all the way past Mansfield.

It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense.   Check out panel 87hr.  Have you ever seen a  snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head?    That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy :rolleyes:.    Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high.   

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense.   Check out panel 87hr.  Have you ever seen a  snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head?    That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy :rolleyes:.    Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high.   

Yea, that's a perfect track for us. The model messes up precip type big time.

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14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense.   Check out panel 87hr.  Have you ever seen a  snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head?    That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy :rolleyes:.    Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high.   

Most aren't making sense to me though. Perfect track but ptypes messed up on all of em. It takes the low from southern ky to WV, so why it wouldn't be laying down 12" of snow for us I don't understand.

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Just now, dilly84 said:

Most aren't making sense to me though. Perfect track but ptypes messed up on all of em. It takes the low from southern ky to WV, so why it wouldn't be laying down 12" of snow for us I don't understand.

It would lay down snow.   At the point it crosses into WV and gets closer to the OH river, we might mix up here, but that track as depicted with all other features on the map is a raging snowstorm for us.

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