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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

These are the types of model days where I hate following weather. I mean what do you do with this cluster of a mess. It's quite comical really.

Nam in Mexico

Gfs weak

Icon extreme north.... see what gem, fv3, ukie and euro bring. Any takers on one showing a cutter?

The brightside - GFS has the heaviest axis of snow over us. :arrowhead:

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Just now, buckeye said:

Not buying the gem taking the low from Oklahoma to just south of cincy and then back south east to southern WV. I bet tomorrow it's weaker and it's Oklahoma, TN, WV....and a decent hit for us. 

Well to this point I'm putting no stock into any of tonight's runs. They're all different. Unless UKIE and Euro come in and match the GFS or something I'm not buying any of them. If I had to guess I'd say the Thursday system is messing with the solutions past that.

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

Not buying the gem taking the low from Oklahoma to just south of cincy and then back south east to southern WV. I bet tomorrow it's weaker and it's Oklahoma, TN, WV....and a decent hit for us. 

Yea, that path made no sense.

Interesting to see what the FV3 shows.

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I'm beginning to doubt this will be a huge storm for anyone in the forum.  6-10 might be the high mark wherever that happens.   I've followed weather for many years and the one thing all big dogs have in common is they are usually sniffed out within 5 days and models begin to hone in details.  Models don't lose the threat or jump it around or find five different ways to make it snow in the same place.  Big dogs aren't complicated.  This is a cluster 4 days out...the two most consistent models have totally different solutions. 

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