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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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it's subtle  but I thought the 5h was a nice improvement on the 18z in that the hp/northern stream was pushing further south and lowering heights in front of the storm much better.  You can really see it starting at 90 hours on tt.    If that were to continue, the eventual result would be a further east and south solution.

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So let's just go ahead and shine some light on the 800lb gorilla in the corner of the room.

Cause we're all thinking it....

it's 8am Saturday morning, sleet starts pinging on the windows....an hour later rain drops mix in....by 10am we have a steady driving rain with 30mph winds and 37 degrees.  Meanwhile Marion, points north are under a blizzard warning.   

Face your fears gentlemen....face your fears.

 

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51 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The Super Bowl storm may have been one of the worst "north trends" inside 60 hours I had ever seen. Lima,Findlay ete ete all went from 12-18 inches to almost nothing in hours. This is more of a "cutter" than that one but the example remains.

This storm is a real stinker for I-70 in many respects. For snowstorm, it needs to be weak and wimpy 4 inch CMH special. If it develops into a 12+ inch beast, it is rain. Then you have current trends, which is in the middle of that.........I-70 ice storm. Probably the best to be beast or a wimp. Don't middle around.

edit: I am waiting for JB to declare victory soon and say he was just off on the locations........that is the one downside to the pattern change we knew was coming. JB flubbed up in style pretty bad.

A little off topic here-- which year's Super Bowl snow? 2018? 2017? 2016?

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

So let's just go ahead and shine some light on the 800lb gorilla in the corner of the room.

Cause we're all thinking it....

it's 8am Saturday morning, sleet starts pinging on the windows....an hour later rain drops mix in....by 10am we have a steady driving rain with 30mph winds and 37 degrees.  Meanwhile Marion, points north are under a blizzard warning.   

Face your fears gentlemen....face your fears.

 

I was already there yesterday afternoon.  This is all too common for us.

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53 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The Super Bowl storm may have been one of the worst "north trends" inside 60 hours I had ever seen. Lima,Findlay ete ete all went from 12-18 inches to almost nothing in hours. This is more of a "cutter" than that one but the example remains.

This storm is a real stinker for I-70 in many respects. For snowstorm, it needs to be weak and wimpy 4 inch CMH special. If it develops into a 12+ inch beast, it is rain. Then you have current trends, which is in the middle of that.........I-70 ice storm. Probably the best to be beast or a wimp. Don't middle around.

edit: I am waiting for JB to declare victory soon and say he was just off on the locations........that is the one downside to the pattern change we knew was coming. JB flubbed up in style pretty bad.

I think the best screwjob analog for this storm would be February 13,2007.  VERY similar set up.  In that situation we were suppose to get a foot of snow but it quickly changed to a sleet fest.  Indiana, (Hoosier), got himself a full blown blizzard.    I've been looking at those maps.   The set up is similar but the main difference I found was the ridge axis out west was more broad and further west.   There was more room for that storm to deepen and gain latitude....not by much, but it didn't take much.

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^^ Dammit I really do not want ice. But I guess it could be worse: from the Sierra Nevada...

 

Quote
Wednesday Night
Snow. Low around 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 95 to 105 mph, with gusts as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
Quote
Thursday
Snow. High near 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind around 85 mph, with gusts as high as 130 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible.

 

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1 minute ago, buckeye said:

I realize I'm extrapolating an 84 hr nam...but for no other reason then it being a perfect example of what would not only save us but might even go too much in the opposite direction.  PV pressing down hard.   A subtle version of that trend is what we need.

Perhaps it and the Ukie are sniffing out something? Not that I think that Mexican low is correct!

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