vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: AMEN.... I'll give it to them with a ribbon. Misery = icestorm power outtages with brutal cold incoming. Not sure if the TT maps are screwy but the 12zGEM actually improved with the snowfall for us from 00z. Agreed, slight improvement. At this stage that's a win. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, JayPSU said: The good news is very VERY rarely do those icestorm model solutions ever verify in our area. And the GEM is actually nice. The temps just absolutely crash while heavy qpf is still around and we get a nice thumping. Yea, it looks to be really ripping when the cold air comes crashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 the problem right now is this storm needs to get further east into the TN valley before it starts making the ne movement. That warm air rushes in about the time the crawl north from w.TN into KY begins. I guess that means we need to root for a quicker northern stream or a slower southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Is there any way we can end up with just a cold rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 models were better, one worse so far for 12z. The good news I guess is that the GFS has been crap and all over the place so far. On to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I haven't really been keeping score, which one at this range is better - the op GFS or FV3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: 2 models were better, one worse so far for 12z. On to the Euro. good to see you posting again The ukie looks awesome, 1003 low in n. GA getting ready to head north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Is there any way we can end up with just a cold rain ? Yes. Ohioans are very good at getting a low to drive right into a polar high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: good to see you posting again The ukie looks awesome, 1103 low in n. GA getting ready to head north Thanks, can’t say I’ll be here a lot, but the pattern is interesting to say the least...finally. Tons of storminess and potential record cold... I’ll at least be around until it gets boring again. So that would be 3 good runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: good to see you posting again The ukie looks awesome, 1103 low in n. GA getting ready to head north Too suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Too suppressed? I'd love to see a 132 hr frame, hard to tell. Looking at the 5h it would definitely do some northward climbing before heading ots. Of course I'm now disecting the ukie... enough of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: Thanks, can’t say I’ll be here a lot, but the pattern is interesting to say the least...finally. Tons of storminess and potential record cold... I’ll at least be around until it gets boring again. So that would be 3 good runs. Always enjoy your analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 looks like the fv3 goes to the nw trend side. I can't tell how good the backside stuff is but definitely starts out warmer than the gfs and further nw than the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: looks like the fv3 goes to the nw trend side. I can't tell how good the backside stuff is but definitely starts out warmer than the gfs and further nw than the 6z Why do I have a feeling 'backside snow' will be the most popular phrase in the thread this weekend? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, buckeye said: looks like the fv3 goes to the nw trend side. I can't tell how good the backside stuff is but definitely starts out warmer than the gfs and further nw than the 6z Not surprising with the gfs doing the same. But it doesn't appear the gfs actually went nw with the low. Just stronger allowing more waa to work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Why do I have a feeling 'backside snow' will be the most popular phrase in the thread this weekend? lol I was thinking the other day that it's been forever since we had a rain changing to snow 'storm'. I know it seems like it never happens but back in the day they seemed much more frequent. And I'm not talking about 1" of rain followed by 1" of snow, I'm talking about a changeover that results in a winter storm warning. It's been a long time since we've seen that but we have seen them. I remember one in January '94 (or '95 lol...terrible with years), that went from rain to snow and counties to the north like Delaware and Union went to blizzard warnings.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 fwiw, the gefs matches the OP pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Fv3 is actually south of the 0z run at 96hrs. I Can't see past that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Fv3 is actually south of the 0z run at 96hrs. I Can't see past that yet. I have it on stormvista, trust me it ends up further into southeast OH. btw, the ukie is actually a whiff at 132...goes out to sea off the southern MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 scratch that on the fv3, it wasn't storm vista it was a link that I took from another thread. Actually looks pretty good. well ok actually. Looks like it favors the north west side of the i-71 corridor. It's also way less expansive with the snow shield in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: scratch that on the fv3, it wasn't storm vista it was a link that I took from another thread. Actually looks pretty good. Understatement lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The GEFS at noon is nearly identical in Central Kentucky in its progression and ends up b- lining it for West Virginia. This part is definitely north of earlier runs which had it sinking ESE somewhat. Most likely this just means the ensemble members with a suppressed look are vanishing. Still if that ensemble run happens we should be in pretty good shape....at least if that would end up the actual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 anyone else noticing a trend for a more sw to ne trajectory of the snow shield vs. w to e? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: anyone else noticing a trend for a more sw to ne trajectory of the snow shield vs. w to e? I hate seeing the bowling ball look fade away. Won't end well around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: I hate seeing the bowling ball look fade away. Won't end well around here. then again, f we can get a further south track to start this and turn up the apps instead of sending it through northern KY....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: anyone else noticing a trend for a more sw to ne trajectory of the snow shield vs. w to e? Yes....I think the noon sniffings by the models want to ramp (phase) the storm up....but at this point it hits the 5.7 billion dollar border steel fence we quickly erected south of the Ohio River....and is diverted away from Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: then again, f we can get a further south track to start this and turn up the apps instead of sending it through northern KY....... Further east yes. I'm all for an Apps runner, but Dec 2004 has scarred me for life. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Further east yes. I'm all for an Apps runner, but Dec 2004 has scarred me for life. lol oh god, that's right....you guys were in the pure rain part of that. That was crazy.... Dilly must have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: oh god, that's right....you guys were in the pure rain part of that. That was crazy.... Dilly must have been Epic ice storm. Hard rain in the upper 20s for hours. Power was out for days in below zero temps. God awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Our overall issue right now is the storm is trying to run between the departing high and the incoming high. It's like our bananna high is too soft in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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