Svrwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Changed to snow in Greenville Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Dustin said: The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me. What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning? This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession... I'm going to take an armchair guess and it was something that concerned me all week I don't think the globals were handling the convection down south and the heat content being pumped up from the gulf very well. that's why we would see a run with 6 inches then a run with 15 then a run with 6. Like Buckeye when I saw that NAM run it really perked my ears. It is the NAM, but it usually sniffs out the WAA pretty well. On top of that the globals never got their shit together on where and when any phasing would occur, a lot of that due to not handling the heat pump from the south well in the first place. Plus no full sampling of the SW until less than 24 hours out really didn't help either. I never fully bought into this storm as soon as I saw it go from progressive to a late cutter. I did expect a little more than what I've gotten and definitely didn't expect the amount of ice here over 1/4 inch. It's not over by any means and I think points to my east should do fairly well as the evening progresses. Just my weenie thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snow had finally arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 As was said f#$k this storm lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Good to see the snow line moving south now. Bradford and Greenville are both roughly west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses. I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: Good to see the snow line moving south now. Bradford and Greenville are both roughly west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses. I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5. Radar is back to showing me as snow, still zr. Nice coating of ice though. Lost 3hrs on ice, yet if the switch is coming wonder why the short term models aren't showing much accums, such as hrrr only showing an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: Good to see the snow line moving south now. Bradford and Greenville are both roughly west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses. I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5. thats seems way too fast I'm thinking much later like 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: thats seems way too fast I'm thinking much later like 9. Agreed. The line is taking its good ol time sagging southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, osubrett2 said: Agreed. The line is taking its good ol time sagging southeast. yea, it's going to be painstaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Getting some sleet here so good sign. Friend in West Mansfield, Union County has heavy snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The HRRR and RAP are looking like disasters. By the time we go to snow, we get dry slotted. Here’s hoping they’re wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Noticeable change in the temperature in Cincinnati. Still rain but you can feel the temp difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Getting some sleet here so good sign. Friend in West Mansfield, Union County has heavy snow now. that is good. so I'm looping the HRRR runs on snowfall. As i've looped the last several runs, (even though the latest looks bad), it's slowly morphing into what the euro snowfall map looks like. It's not there yet, but will be interesting to see if continues towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowx467 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just went from Easton (37 degrees) to 23/750 (33 degrees) no sign of mixing Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Plumes spitting out 8 inches for Muncie . IWX still somewhat confident on some heavy snows tonight.... Storm total amounts will vary quite a bit across the area. Areas across southern Lower Michigan received around 6 inches of snow last night with the leading mid level warm advection/fgen band last night, and added several additional inches today. Another area of max storm totals will likely orient along and southeast of a line from roughly southeast of a line from Wauseon, OH to Fort Wayne, IN to Marion, IN. Depending on band evolution cannot discount possibility of some reports over 10 inches for the extreme southeast across northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio along and south of Route 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowx467 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just went from Easton (37 degrees) to 23/750 (33 degrees) no sign of mixing Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TapatalkJust as I send that some ice mixing in at 23/750Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 ILN still going with 6-8".... ...trying to keep optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I like that the ice reports are already pretty close to Columbus. BTW, I didn't mean 5 earlier, I meant 6. So maybe before then, but hopefully certainly well before 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, JayPSU said: The HRRR and RAP are looking like disasters. By the time we go to snow, we get dry slotted. Here’s hoping they’re wrong. HRRR is showing the deform band break up with holes at times which is what kills the accums....We need that sucker to be dumping with no breaks if we are gonna reach even the low end of projections. Still far enough out in HRRR-time not to be too worried ...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: I like that the ice reports are already pretty close to Columbus. BTW, I didn't mean 5 earlier, I meant 6. So maybe before then, but hopefully certainly well before 9. yea wish we had a Dublin poster checking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Sleeting now in Lewis Center.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Can confirm its raining now in Canton even. Models WAYYYYY underdone the cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Upstairs with the kids and hear the sleet hitting the window. Was out about 30-45 min ago and it was plain old rain at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: yea wish we had a Dublin poster checking in I am next to the zoo & a stone’s throw from Dublin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: jbcmh, you are probably more right than me. Newest HRRR says snow arrives to Frankling county pretty quickly as in like 6ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: jbcmh, you are probably more right than me. Newest HRRR says snow arrives to Frankling county pretty quickly as in like 6ish But it also obliterates the deform band. We get maybe an inch. Time to throw in the towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snowing here along the OH/IN border west of Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, JayPSU said: But it also obliterates the deform band. We get maybe an inch. Time to throw in the towel? I'm not throwing it in until everything is passed us. I can't imagine the HRRR or any model is going to handle the details of the deform band perfectly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, JayPSU said: But it also obliterates the deform band. We get maybe an inch. Time to throw in the towel? probably best at this point to turn off the models and start looking at actual obs and radar. Speaking of which, we have a lot of steady precip coming in from the southwest, will be interesting to see what it ends up being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: probably best at this point to turn off the models and start looking at actual obs and radar. Speaking of which, we have a lot of steady precip coming in from the southwest, will be interesting to see what it ends up being Agree - not putting much stock in models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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