Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm afraid the defo band will set up shop south and east of here. This may end up being a huge bust. I doubt I see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The new HRRR is looking a touch colder for the 3rd run in a row. The only thing that bothers me is that in my experience when the cold comes in, it comes in like a rocket. On this it appears to start coming in at around 6pm but takes several hours to come through. I’m not sure I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 My wife says the naysayers are out on FB, saying ILN dropped the ball. I don't see what they could done as the models were calling for up to a foot or more when I went to bed last night at 11. I'm afraid the next time a storm heads this way people will ignore it. Radio says Jym Ganahl is calling for blizzard conditions later, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The thermals on this are absolutely frustrating to forecast for Franklin county. I am a little concerned that as surface Ts start crashing around 23z, there is still southerly flow near and above 850mb, and this hangs on for at least another 2 hours (until 1z). There could be a narrow SE to NE oriented corridor with an extended period of ZR before 850s finally crash. Checking out soundings between 23z and 1z, there is actually a little warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Dustin said: The thermals on this are absolutely frustrating to forecast for Franklin county. I am a little concerned that as surface Ts start crashing around 23z, there is still southerly flow near and above 850mb, and this hangs on for at least another 2 hours (until 1z). There could be a narrow SE to NE oriented corridor with an extended period of ZR before 850s finally crash. Checking out soundings between 23z and 1z, there is actually a little warm advection. Thanks for checking in, Dustin! It’s nice to have a met weigh in our tough forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm afraid the defo band will set up shop south and east of here. This may end up being a huge bust. I doubt I see a flake. Nah, I'd bet your good for 4 to 6. Think the cutoff is gonna be from an Indy to Muncie line. As Jay said that cold air is going to come in like a rocket, already is on meso analysis, and be a liitle too much too late for me. Your closer to the energy and should get a couple more hours of snow than I will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well it's a mix of zr and ip here now, maybe trying to switch back over. Ip is definitely becoming more relevant. Not really paying much attention to models at this point as obviously, they're useless. Best we can hope for is the models are off on when cold air pushes in and this low starts moving east a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dustin said: The thermals on this are absolutely frustrating to forecast for Franklin county. I am a little concerned that as surface Ts start crashing around 23z, there is still southerly flow near and above 850mb, and this hangs on for at least another 2 hours (until 1z). There could be a narrow SE to NE oriented corridor with an extended period of ZR before 850s finally crash. Checking out soundings between 23z and 1z, there is actually a little warm advection. this storm has been a forecasting nightmare for a lot of mets from what I'm reading. OHweather said it best in his last update, "Fck this storm"...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Nah, I'd bet your good for 4 to 6. Think the cutoff is gonna be from an Indy to Muncie line. As Jay said that cold air is going to come in like a rocket, already is on meso analysis, and be a liitle too much too late for me. Your closer to the energy and should get a couple more hours of snow than I will I hope you are right. It's just frustrating waiting for that first flake to fall. It's 230 pm and still haven't seen a flake or even any sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 30 miles north of me pounding snow 1 1.5 inches an hour. White out conditions. I have had pounding sleet and freezing rain since 7:30am. Trees starting to feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: this storm has been a forecasting nightmare for a lot of mets from what I'm reading. OHweather said it best in his last update, "Fck this storm"...lol The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me. What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning? This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Well it's a mix of zr and ip here now, maybe trying to switch back over. Ip is definitely becoming more relevant. Not really paying much attention to models at this point as obviously, they're useless. Best we can hope for is the models are off on when cold air pushes in and this low starts moving east a bit faster. you're probably done with liquid....that cold air is pressing pretty good from the nw now starting to dry out Michigan and N.IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Dustin said: The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me. What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning? This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession... You guys must absolutely HATE social media....lol...I don't blame you. My first gut punch was when the 00z nam came in much warmer...I had a bad feeling at that point even though the gfs held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Have to believe that the school districts that canceled today's events are ticked - our district sent out a text blast yesterday afternoon canceling all events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: You guys must absolutely HATE social media....lol...I don't blame you. My first gut punch was when the 00z nam came in much warmer...I had a bad feeling at that point even though the gfs held. NAM nailed it. King failed miserably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: NAM nailed it. King failed miserably not yet... we'll know in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm Yep - I was 10, living in the Akron/Cleveland area. I recall them calling off school which I couldn't figure out as it was around 50 and raining. All I recall after that is being off school for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We should probably start taking bets on how busy emergency crews will be when people yelling bust are stranded on ice and snow several hours from now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Temp finally fell to 32. Trees are icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm This what I hold on to when the bigger storms are a little wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm Man that was an awesome storm... heavy rain that changed quickly over to snow with temps plummeting with riduculous winds...at least we have that memory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Crowbar said: Yep - I was 10, living in the Akron/Cleveland area. I recall them calling off school which I couldn't figure out as it was around 50 and raining. All I recall after that is being off school for a week. I was in Columbus. It was drizzling and foggy all day. The sound of the roaring wind woke me up around 4 in the morning, I thought a truck was parked outside reving it's engine, I looked out and you couldn't see across the street....no power and my folks turned on their batter radio and governor Rhodes was making an emergency address. They say once in a lifetime for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 58 minutes ago, Crowbar said: WTVN says that PA Turnpike going to be shut down for commercial vehicles until tomorrow. Latest HRRR drives low right into W PA giving about the eastern 3/4ths plain rain.... talk about a bust if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: Latest HRRR drives low right inot W PA giving about the eastern 3/4ths plain rain.... talk about a bust if that happens This reminds me of the Saturday from I think 2005 - didn't have the ability to work from home so went to the office with a Winter Storm Warning calling for 8-12". Got to the office early, worked for several hours, then looked outside and saw nothing. Logged into the NWS site and saw the WSW was downgraded to a WWA. Went back to my desk for a few hours, looked out again, and still nothing. Went back to NWS site and they removed the WWA. That was a total bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Power outages just to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Per CMH airport winds have switched to North as it was primarily East all day. Would suspect we are getting more in a position with the low where temps start dropping soon. Meso on SPC shows 850’s heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 56 minutes ago, buckeye said: you're probably done with liquid....that cold air is pressing pretty good from the nw now starting to dry out Michigan and N.IN Nope pouring zr again. Trees and powerlines are covered now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Nope pouring zr again. Trees and powerlines are covered now. I should have put the caveat....I meant straight rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: I should have put the caveat....I meant straight rain Even worse.... 18z models show me dryslotting. I may be doa lol. 19z hrrr shows an inch for all of us south of i30 now. This storms is done boys. Time to wrap er up and put it to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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