JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Improvement on the new HRRR. I need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well went from moderate snow that dropped 2" to freezing rain and sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Still think later today into the overnight is going to be good. Maybe no 12” totals, but 6-8” is still plenty reasonable if the deformation sets up where it’s supposed to. The first push was always the most questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Improvement on the new HRRR. I need help. looks like the change back over from rain to sleet to snow is between 9 and 10..... then it's out of here around 3am and manages to dump around 5 or 6 inches, (roughly), in that short time. That would be a hefty dump in short time, not totally unheard of though. of course that's taking the HRRR pretty much at face value.... that'll change again next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Had this first wave come in as heavy steady precip, I'm sure the snow line would have been further south. When it comes in spotty like this it allows things to warm up quicker above us and you get what we have right now... drizzle with occasional pings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z euro is still giv'n CMH love. It kind of matches the timing of the HRRR I described above. Pretty much 7-8" across all of Franklin County in the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: 12z euro is still giv'n CMH love. It kind of matches the timing of the HRRR I described above. Pretty much 7-8" across all of Franklin County in the overnight. Now it’s just time to watch the upper level freezing lines creep south. I suspect they won’t move much until the low moves south and then there will be a rapid switchover. All depends on timing. The earlier the better, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Light freezing rain here now at 29° nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, jbcmh81 said: Now it’s just time to watch the upper level freezing lines creep south. I suspect they won’t move much until the low moves south and then there will be a rapid switchover. All depends on timing. The earlier the better, obviously. Yep timing is everything. But the euro as well as some of the mesos are signaling a short but intense snowstorm tonight. another sleepless night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Yep timing is everything. But the euro as well as some of the mesos are signaling a short but intense snowstorm tonight. another sleepless night.... Of course. Another one where it happens at night!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I also had to laugh at some of the models for next week... warm and mix/rain during storms followed by very cold and dry... over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 My sister lives near the 0.25" freezing rain report. Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This system is over I have a feeling. Radar showing me snow which is obviously not accurate now... newest hrrr has the heaviest band through Mansfield now. Has me in Knox freezing rain through 13hrs. With around a 2hr quickie on the back end. Sometimes I hate tracking storms. Makes me sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: This system is over I have a feeling. Radar showing me snow which is obviously not accurate now... newest hrrr has the heaviest band through Mansfield now. Has me in Knox freezing rain through 13hrs. With around a 2hr quickie on the back end. Sometimes I hate tracking storms. Makes me sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: Good job! You nailed that prediction from last night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, dilly84 said: This system is over I have a feeling. Radar showing me snow which is obviously not accurate now... newest hrrr has the heaviest band through Mansfield now. Has me in Knox freezing rain through 13hrs. With around a 2hr quickie on the back end. Sometimes I hate tracking storms. Makes me sick. The majority of our snow is projected to be from the deform ban that develops as the low rides to the southeast of us. Today would have been icing on the cake had we been able to hold the upper level temps colder. Yes, that failed, but it doesn't mean tonight fails. The HRRR will change every hour...as it's supposed to. You're in a better spot than most of us anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Good job! You nailed that prediction from last night! ....wait....Pondo hasn't announced his transfer to Philly yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Plain rain here in Lewis Center - haven't seen a whiff of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: The majority of our snow is projected to be from the deform ban that develops as the low rides to the southeast of us. Today would have been icing on the cake had we been able to hold the upper level temps colder. Yes, that failed, but it doesn't mean tonight fails. The HRRR will change every hour...as it's supposed to. You're in a better spot than most of us anyways. The issue is, I'm even nearly 40 miles north and it's this here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Crowbar said: Plain rain here in Lewis Center - haven't seen a whiff of snow. I'm at my office in Lewis Center....small world. Moderate rain but it's that kind of rain that when hits the windshield you can tell it's partial ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well I certainly hope people don’t get the impression nothing is going to happen and treat this as a rain storm. Once temperatures plummet the roads will become dangerous. Add this possible deformation band and yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: I'm at my office in Lewis Center....small world. Moderate rain but it's that kind of rain that when hits the windshield you can tell it's partial ice. I'm working from my home office (my real office is at Polaris but decided to work from home). To be fair, I'm just looking out the window - haven't been outside yet although may go out to try to start the snowblower, which crapped out on me last week. Where in LC? I'm up in Orange Twp just to the west of the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: The issue is, I'm even nearly 40 miles north and it's this here as well. I know what you're saying. Models over did the se push of the upper cold today....by quite a bit, (which surprised me too), often the opposite happens. But that shouldn't have a major effect on what happens tonight. Euro has you at 10-11" after the changeover. Hell, cut the euro numbers in half....that's still 5-6 for you and around 4" for us.... plus it'll come in with high winds and heavy rates, my favorite kind of snow. could it fail still?......absolutely, but I sure didn't put all this tracking time into this storm so I can walk away at halftime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Crowbar said: I'm working from my home office (my real office is at Polaris but decided to work from home). To be fair, I'm just looking out the window - haven't been outside yet although may go out to try to start the snowblower, which crapped out on me last week. Where in LC? I'm up in Orange Twp just to the west of the park. office park at 23 and powell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, buckeye said: ....wait....Pondo hasn't announced his transfer to Philly yet... Just called the realtor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You're a stone's throw from my office (maybe a small cannon) - I'm next to the Chase complex. Much better now that they fixed S Old State. My computer says it's 33 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, pondo1000 said: Just called the realtor ...sell out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 WTVN says that PA Turnpike going to be shut down for commercial vehicles until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We could very well end up with more ice and sleet than snow here. the bulk of the defo looks like it could cut to the se Haven't had a flake yet. The only blowing anything we might get are transformers lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Crowbar said: You're a stone's throw from my office (maybe a small cannon) - I'm next to the Chase complex. Much better now that they fixed S Old State. My computer says it's 33 now. it's crazy how many of us live in such close proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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