vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 2:11 PM, osubrett2 said: NAM's initial thump "crushes" I-70. Edit: "crushes" being relative for our lack of big storms haha Expand You ain't kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The deform band merely passes through W-E instead of pivoting NE as the trough stays positively titled. But with the colder trends, not sure it's totally needed to get moderate/large accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 2:18 PM, osubrett2 said: The deform band merely passes through W-E instead of pivoting NE as the trough stays positively titled. But with the colder trends, not sure it's totally needed to get moderate/large accumulations. Expand Where do you see ice being an issue? ILN doesn't seem too concerned about it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z NAM's ice, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 And the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 2:20 PM, vespasian70 said: Where do you see ice being an issue? ILN doesn't seem too concerned about it for now. Expand Yeah, I'm not seeing an obvious/large area of ice. 850s are the same temp, if not colder, than surface temps for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 2:29 PM, osubrett2 said: Yeah, I'm not seeing an obvious/large area of ice. 850s are the same temp, if not colder, than surface temps for most of the area. Expand Thanks! That's great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3k has a little more ice just south of I-70 as 850s are warmer and some patches briefly warm above freezing. Overall snowmap is extremely similar to the 12k, amounts just slightly less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 1:51 PM, vespasian70 said: Awfully quiet in here considering we are under a Watch. Perhaps burnout? lol 12z NAM rolling out ... Expand Sleeping. Stayed up til 445 to watch the 6z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 2:53 PM, dilly84 said: Sleeping. Stayed up til 445 to watch the 6z lol Expand Yea, I'm glad the storm is almost here, I don't know if I can do this rollercoaster ride much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 2:58 PM, vespasian70 said: Yea, I'm glad the storm is almost here, I don't know if I can do this rollercoaster ride much longer. Expand Whatd that ukmet snow map look like 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy02 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:15 PM, dilly84 said: Whatd that ukmet snow map look like 0z? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:15 PM, dilly84 said: Whatd that ukmet snow map look like 0z? Expand Cincy best me too it. Probably a best case scenario for me and Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:22 PM, vespasian70 said: Cincy best me too it. Probably a best case scenario for me and Steve. Expand Not for I lol. Gives me 4-5. But makes no sense. Qpf maps showed me with .6-.8 qpf assuming at minimum 10:1 itd be 6-8".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Is channel 4 in Columbus even relative anymore... calling for 1-3!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:33 PM, Steve said: Is channel 4 in Columbus even relative anymore... calling for 1-3!! Expand Seriously?! I long for the Jym Ganahl days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:33 PM, Steve said: Is channel 4 in Columbus even relative anymore... calling for 1-3!! Expand I saw that this morning too. Ben last night at 7:00 said 7-10 and this morning was a dramatic drop. Bob’s animated map this morning showed Columbus in all snow too with some rain south so nothing added up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It's that David mazza I was telling buckeye about. He said on video that no where in Ohio would see more than 8" and thatd be in nw ohio and any model that showed more was wrong. Guy is a moron. On 1/18/2019 at 3:33 PM, Steve said: Is channel 4 in Columbus even relative anymore... calling for 1-3!! Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:35 PM, weatherzen said: Seriously?! I long for the Jym Ganahl days... Expand He’s on ABC 6 now I think. I don’t watch that channel though as I don’t have a tolerance for their news anchors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:36 PM, NTXYankee said: I saw that this morning too. Ben last night at 7:00 said 7-10 and this morning was a dramatic drop. Bob’s animated map this morning showed Columbus in all snow too with some rain south so nothing added up Expand Fat black (Bob N.) hates snow so he always undercuts amounts. He has a history of doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I70 crew cutting it close but what a run. Temps never go above freezing. This is the closest it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:39 PM, NTXYankee said: He’s on ABC 6 now I think. I don’t watch that channel though as I don’t have a tolerance for their news anchors Expand Yeah, I don't care for 6 either. Saw Ganahl in person over the summer. He's not looking well. Love his enthusiasm for winter weather. He inspired me to build several backyard ice rinks when my kids were younger. I'm afraid the days of backyard ice rinks in central Ohio are long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:45 PM, weatherzen said: Yeah, I don't care for 6 either. Saw Ganahl in person over the summer. He's not looking well. Love his enthusiasm for winter weather. He inspired me to build several backyard ice rinks when my kids were younger. I'm afraid the days of backyard ice rinks in central Ohio are long gone. Expand Oh gosh I remember him talking about that during his weather segments. I left CMH and lived in DFW for 6 years. I came back and every weather personality switched stations except Mike Davis it seemed like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Eric Elwell is Columbus' best local met. A snow weenie too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS is 1 or 2 mb stronger than the NAM, brings in warmer 850s for freezing rain along I-70 and south. Snow totals still look good for I-70 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On the 12Z GFS, where it stays all snow, it’s over a foot of snow. Unfortunately that line is from Delaware County on north. Just needs a very small adjustment and we’re golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:49 PM, vespasian70 said: Eric Elwell is Columbus' best local met. A snow weenie too. Expand What station is he on? He used to be on that ONN station which is no more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Elwell just left WHIO-TV here in Dayton, about a month ago. Back to Columbus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 3:49 PM, vespasian70 said: Eric Elwell is Columbus' best local met. A snow weenie too. Expand I miss Chris... F**K cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 things definitely look better than they did 24hrs ago, but damn, I'm still not confident at all on a total snow event for CMH area. Confidence boosted that we'll have a lot more frozen than wet, but per usual we are so damn close to the line it's insane. Looping through these runs, most of them have the 850 line literally lining up along the 40degree lat line which basically cuts through Columbus, for at least a few hours. I don't think freezing rain is a big threat simply because it's hard to get good accretion with 30 degrees and heavy rain. Sleet to some degree or another is definitely in the cards though for probably most of Franklin County. So here's my gut call on this looking back at similar situations and based on years of watching this stuff unfold here. If we can hold this current look or something razor close to it through 00z, then I think odds favor a good surprise vs. a bad one. Typically* on close calls like this, (4th and goal ball on the 1" line), we find away to get it in ugly, whether that may be aided by high precip rates or an underestimated push of cold. Now if models start going nw, (delay of game call), well you know.... *Typically, but I still wear the scars from Feb 13 2007, a very similar set up. cue Hoosier in 3...2...1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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