buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Idk. Look north to me. Quite a few have most of Ohio with rain You must be looking at the wrong one. Gefs and it's members are the best run we've seen wrt this cluster storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: You must be looking at the wrong one. Gefs and it's members are the best run we've seen wrt this cluster storm yet. Yea I was. Was looking at day 4 type. Mean looks like operational. Many have it well north of i70 though. Idk tonight's runs were a mess, and I agree with you its nonsense to have had the consensus we've had for days for any consensus to fall apart 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro perfect track for us central Ohio crew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If the models weren't in mayhem mode that Euro run would be epic for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Still cautiously optimistic for changes, if it flipped this big one way, it could again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Still cautiously optimistic for changes, if it flipped this big one way, it could again Exactly. Which is why I'm only excited with a small 'e'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The Euro can’t get much better for the Cincinnati, Dayton, and Central Ohio folks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 06z FV3 ticks south a bit. A good sign if this model's bias is amped lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looks like to me a lot of models shifted South and put us in the sweet spot as of now.... still three days out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 43 minutes ago, Steve said: Looks like to me a lot of models shifted South and put us in the sweet spot as of now.... still three days out!! I'd say we're in the sweet and sour spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Any word on DeepThunder 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This kind of reminds me of the storm last January 12th where the models really blew up the storm and drilled northern Ohio, but a progressive northern stream caused it to trend weaker/less phased 3-4 days out and central and southern Ohio got a moderate storm. Different setup here for sure, but same kind of result with negative northern stream influence due to the polar vortex preventing a good phase and wound up solution. Given the great thermal gradient/jet/abundant moisture I could still see an 8-12” swath even with a less amped solution...given the trend I-70 is definitely in play for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, buckeye said: Any word on DeepThunder 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That's the midnight run, I haven't seen the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Always a good sign when OHweather pops in with commentary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, OHweather said: This kind of reminds me of the storm last January 12th where the models really blew up the storm and drilled northern Ohio, but a progressive northern stream caused it to trend weaker/less phased 3-4 days out and central and southern Ohio got a moderate storm. Different setup here for sure, but same kind of result with negative northern stream influence due to the polar vortex preventing a good phase and wound up solution. Given the great thermal gradient/jet/abundant moisture I could still see an 8-12” swath even with a less amped solution...given the trend I-70 is definitely in play for that. Miss your insights, glad to see you here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yikes. That looks icy for a lot of us. I would rather have the 3 inches of rain and flash freeze.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, hoosierwx said: Yikes. That looks icy for a lot of us. I would rather have the 3 inches of rain and flash freeze. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Yea, it ain't pretty. I'm not familiar enough with the model to be worried or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 IBM 'outlier run'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 NAM still digging down into Mexico. Maybe it won't be a bad thing, should definitely be juicier I'd think lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, dilly84 said: NAM still digging down into Mexico. Maybe it won't be a bad thing, should definitely be juicier I'd think lol. Is it doing multiple waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon looks nice. Real nice thunderstorms across central Ohio all the way past Mansfield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: Icon looks nice. Real nice thunderstorms across central Ohio all the way past Mansfield. It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense. Check out panel 87hr. Have you ever seen a snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head? That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy . Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense. Check out panel 87hr. Have you ever seen a snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head? That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy . Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high. Yea, that's a perfect track for us. The model messes up precip type big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, buckeye said: It's a great run....ignore the precip type...makes no sense. Check out panel 87hr. Have you ever seen a snowstorm with that kind of rain/snow line in the middle of the comma head? That snow line would most likely go from south of Pitt to bloomington IN.....NOT Youngstown to Indy . Especially with the low in south central KY and a pressing arctic high. Most aren't making sense to me though. Perfect track but ptypes messed up on all of em. It takes the low from southern ky to WV, so why it wouldn't be laying down 12" of snow for us I don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: Edit: speaking of KY, here to hoping to not needing any for this storm lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Most aren't making sense to me though. Perfect track but ptypes messed up on all of em. It takes the low from southern ky to WV, so why it wouldn't be laying down 12" of snow for us I don't understand. It would lay down snow. At the point it crosses into WV and gets closer to the OH river, we might mix up here, but that track as depicted with all other features on the map is a raging snowstorm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 on storm vista it's like 2'+ along i-70. <no.weenie>I'm guessing the algorithm is screwy on TT <no.weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I wonder if the snowpack already in place will benefit us ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Thursday system is a tad weaker and a tick south on GFS, could spell a bit stronger weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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