mempho Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Local (cough) emergency meeting came out with line “Folks, this is only 1 mile an hour away from being a Category 4 storm. So I can’t stress enough how serious this is that you evacuate now.” Over and over. I’ve been following Michael here while my DH was glued to the weather channel and they throw around words like “catastrophic” and yes I KNOW any Hurricane is not just some simple event. This is why things go so horribly wrong. We don’t own a home directly ON the beach or the Gulf. Nowhere near a storm surge impact zone like we were in Opal. Left for that one, which was about the same amount as hysteria as this one if not more. Stayed for Ivan. Wind, rain, missed the tornado, power went out but because of our location we get the power back on first thankfully. So we evacuated this morning along with no one else. Opal was a traffic jam. What gets me is he is from Tornado alley in his hometown. They come out of nowhere any time, any day. And he’d rather live here than ride out a hurricane that you know is coming and you’re prepared for. The TV and the weather channel is just all wrong in my opinion. If it’s so dangerous, why are they here? Why are they staying? Why are they still alive after all this time? I know where they are staying and what that place looked like after Opal came through. I hope they’re on an upper floor. You didn't actually "get" Ivan unless you were on Perdido Key. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 10 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: I’m still feeling okay about my call for a relative sleeper at landfall. Still feeling ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 Still feeling ok? Not to overly defend, but NE GOM landfalls tend to be more bark than bite. We all have doubts just from recent history. The fact is that major hurricanes do make landfall there. They are perhaps just more rare due to typical atmospheric environmental conditions. Michael has not yet made landfall and given the presence of strong SW flow, we could still see core degradation before landfall. But this is the crux of it all. Inevitably, whether it is Michael or a future TC, we would have seen a major make landfall in the panhandle again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 already some storm surge issues near Tampa. I know some friends in new Port Richey and near Clearwater that are dealing with flooded roads and have seen some other pictures from down in South Tampa of some flooded roads as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Not to overly defend, but NE GOM landfalls tend to be more bark than bite. We all have doubts just from recent history. The fact is that major hurricanes do make landfall there. They are perhaps just more rare due to typical atmospheric environmental conditions. Michael has not yet made landfall and given the presence of strong SW flow, we could still see core degradation before landfall. But this is the crux of it all. Inevitably, whether it is Michael or a future TC, we would have seen a major make landfall in the panhandle again. Yea lately they have been more bark than bite but models have been doing a pretty good job with intensifcation with this one, especially the HWRF and EURO. Both models have has sub 940 mb storms for multiple runs here and there the past few days and that seems likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yea lately they have been more bark than bite but models have been doing a pretty good job with intensifcation with this one, especially the HWRF and EURO. Both models have has sub 940 mb storms for multiple runs here and there the past few days and that seems likely now. Thats crazy Sandy was at 940 when it made landfall on the Jersey Shore. I said earlier no way this storm was going to be as bad as that one but I might have to eat my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 There are other damn storms that have existed besides Sandy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: There are other damn storms that have existed besides Sandy... I'm just speaking from experience and I think it's interesting from the science end about how we are almost at the 940mb benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 take the bickering to the main thread. this is a chill zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 just got caught up because i was playing some slay the spire... of course stewart went cat 4 landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 If I were OCD, I'd be pissed at how The (phony) Weather Channel illustrates storm surge with a typical suburban house theoretically sitting at 0' elevation, which exists exactly nowhere. No wave action battering it as the surge rises, but cute fishes calmly swimming below. I mean I get that they are oversimplifying for the Idiocracy lowest common denominator, but still. Is Reynolds Wolf even capable of shame? (Not my favorite channel...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, Stebo said: There are other damn storms that have existed besides Sandy... You just don't know how to appreciate a meteorological gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 You just don't know how to appreciate a meteorological gem. But I have a side and refuse to see, much less believe with regards to anything other than what supports my close-minded agenda that I support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: You just don't know how to appreciate a meteorological gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: It was my favorite hurricane ever in Indiana. Lake Michigan wave action was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It was my favorite hurricane ever in Indiana. Lake Michigan wave action was awesome. I am kind of impartial to Opel, 4+ inches of rain and winds over 40. Ike is also good too but the best passed to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: I am kind of impartial to Opel, 4+ inches of rain and winds over 40. Ike is also good too but the best passed to the south. Yeah I definitely would've gone with Ike if I had been in the better wind area. That was such a freak occurrence for the Ohio Valley. The lack of precip on the eastern side actually helped to realize those 75-85 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Yeah I definitely would've gone with Ike if I had been in the better wind area. That was such a freak occurrence for the Ohio Valley. The lack of precip on the eastern side actually helped to realize those 75-85 mph gusts. Yeah a blind windstorm, probably one of the most unusual occurrences ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yeah a blind windstorm, probably one of the most unusual occurrences ever. The 1900 Galveston hurricane did something similar but farther north. I've read old stories about significant tree damage and some minor structural damage around here (and through the Lakes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: The 1900 Galveston hurricane did something similar but farther north. I've read old stories about significant tree damage and some minor structural damage around here (and through the Lakes). Yeah and both hit Galveston too. Many similarities to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: You all in yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: You all in yet? 80%??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Still plenty of time for an epic collapse. The shear has to stay perfectly oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 80%???Be careful, there is still plenty of time for it to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Be careful, there is still plenty of time for it to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Alil humor Folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Man I hate Jim cantore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 He’s the billy joel of wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 Upper level divergence is a hell of a drug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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