the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, mempho said: There may be some dry air in the upper levels but that will mix out some when this gets caught in Michael's circulation. For a long time now, things have felt more reminiscent of August or early September than of October. Our dewpoints (and overnight lows) have been way, way above normal (consistently +10 to +15) for weeks now and that's been a southeast phenomenon. That's not to say dry air entrainment won't occur (it does that in August, too, ala Katrina) but I would expect that dry air punch to be like you'd expect from an August hurricane rather than an October one. Also consider that the shallow shelf waters are going to not provide much in the way of cooling the way they typically would. Obviously, this thing will have to undergo RI for any of that mean much, though. If it does rapidly strengthen, then the rapid forward motion isn't likely to allow much time for either to do its work, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Cat 5 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomewhereFL Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 #breakingnews Jim Cantore, Chris Warren and Mike Bettes will broadcast from Apalachicola, with Jen Carfagno, Chris Bruin, Alex Wilson and Reynolds Wolf working out of Panama City Beach and Tevin Wooten out of Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 nobody or model is even considering it, but really hope this thing doesn't make a hard right and affect us here in the Tampa area, nobody is even batting an eye at it much less preparing for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Doubt there is any chance of a direct hit there, but some rather high tides likely on Wednesday and perhaps tropical storm conditions briefly. Think the range of plausible landfalls is Mobile Bay to about Cedar Key, my guess being Panama City almost directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Let’s not forget the serious of a situation that will be the RED TIDE AND ALGE. That will be pushed into the coast this this monster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I’m still feeling okay about my call for a relative sleeper at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 I’m still feeling okay about my call for a relative sleeper at landfall. It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, Windspeed said: It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow. Well, if I were there I’d have to prepare for a serious outcome. Since I am in Vegas instead, my bet is still for a lower end hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Take a shot every time someone mentions cat 4, opal, or charlie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: I’m still feeling okay about my call for a relative sleeper at landfall. it's looking great now that i trashed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I survived Sandy. While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary. If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: I survived Sandy. While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary. If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride. If you thought Sandy was bad try becoming a 2100 survivor. That would be a dope calling card/bragging right. Assuming we are all born in 2050 or 2075. Just a hypothetical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 whats going to happen in 2100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said: it's looking great now that i trashed it Relaxing shear and a loop current eddy. Your going to eat that in 12 hours when this is 130. It will weaken on approach but I like a 120 landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said: I survived Sandy. While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary. If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride. Sandy was a glorified nor’easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Reading that mess makes me want to kick puppies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 27 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: whats going to happen in 2100? I was mocking the obsession with 2100. You are on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 Josh is at Panama City Beach: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 3 hours ago, SandySurvivor said: I survived Sandy. While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary. If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride. Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. Sandy had record IKE regardless of moon phase and all that jazz. Please don’t downplay a true legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SandySurvivor Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. This is still up for debate amongst some of those I know in the meteorology field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Sandy, again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 I love AVN. Oh how I have missed thee. Also, thanks WxWatcher007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: I love AVN. someday we'll tell our grandkids about the old AVN prior to when the commies at NOAA changed the color palate to make storms look more intense for AGW propaganda purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, fourseasons said: This is Michael. Not Sandy. rule number 1: it's always sandy rule number 2: no being mean to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Watching the eye close off is like watching a dog chase it's tail. You keep getting dizzier and it never gets any closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 If this hits as a high end CAT 4 Tallahassee will lose the entire power grid. 95% power outage and it will be weeks to a month for some to get it restored. I cannot overstate how poorly situated the power grid is relative to large trees that will bend better than Stormy Daniels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Heyooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 Take a shot every time I mention mid level shear and you will end up with alcohol poisoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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