Michael Banter Thread

[LSC97wxnut]

1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said:

FYI there were 4 chasers who rode out the storm there and experienced a similar situation as Bret did. One of them lost their vehicle as well. 

Ah, OK.  Sorry for making an assumption.  

It just looked like where debris from the ocean front and sand ended up, there was a little bit of elevation just northeast of 98 in that area.

[Hurricane Agnes]

29 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Not to bring up Brett Adair again, but it looks like if he would have turned off 98 and been on one of the residential streets that ran parallel just inland, he might not have been caught up in the surge?

It doesn't look like the surge penetrated to far inland where he was vs. further north. 

The location of the house had been posted in here in an earlier post that I found and they didn't even really make it out of Port St. Joe, which was where they were before they started to head back towards Mexico Beach.  I zoomed the Google Street View map out some so you can see where they bailed in relation to the water (the house with the purple roof) -  https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9184855,-85.3841086,162a,35y,44.94h,45t/data=!3m1!1e3

 

[NycStormChaser]

16 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Ah, OK.  Sorry for making an assumption.  

It just looked like where debris from the ocean front and sand ended up, there was a little bit of elevation just northeast of 98 in that area.

Oops, I wrote my post wrong again. Still tired. I meant to say that 4 other chasers were in the same location as Bret. 

[The Iceman]

25 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Not to bring up Brett Adair again, but it looks like if he would have turned off 98 and been on one of the residential streets that ran parallel just inland, he might not have been caught up in the surge?

It doesn't look like the surge penetrated to far inland where he was vs. further north. 

I'm not a "professional storm chaser" like Brett and his team, but it also looks like if they had bothered to pull up google maps for 2 minutes prior to chasing a cat 4 hurricane, they would have noticed that area was a low lying island with one main road that would no doubt see a major surge on close miss let alone a direct hit. But maybe that is just expecting too much from these "professionals". 

[Jenkins]

15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

While I agree somewhat, I was referring to point st. Joe not port. Point is that tiny little barrier island. Not all barrier islands are equal and that one looks especially bad. It’s basically just a sand bar. There was one area of Rhode Island that was similar and completely destroyed during the hurricane of 38. It was not rebuilt even back then.

My hometown, Westerly RI. 

[NycStormChaser]

7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm not a "professional storm chaser" like Brett and his team, but it also looks like if they had bothered to pull up google maps for 2 minutes prior to chasing a cat 4 hurricane, they would have noticed that area was a low lying island with one main road that would no doubt see a major surge on close miss let alone a direct hit. But maybe that is just expecting too much from these "professionals". 

They knew the risk. They just underestimated the surge. 

[The Iceman]

Just now, NycStormChaser said:

They knew the risk. They just underestimated the surge. 

How do "professionals" underestimate the surge of a cat 4 hurricane in the gulf? It's not like they were inland near a bay and the bay rose higher than expected, this was right along an unprotected shoreline prior to a cat 4. Underestimating the surge in that location is like standing on the rim of a volcano before it erupts...

[Hurricane Agnes]

22 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm not a "professional storm chaser" like Brett and his team, but it also looks like if they had bothered to pull up google maps for 2 minutes prior to chasing a cat 4 hurricane, they would have noticed that area was a low lying island with one main road that would no doubt see a major surge on close miss let alone a direct hit. But maybe that is just expecting too much from these "professionals". 

They knew where they were because they had scouted the area before and noted in their banter that there was really no place in Mexico Beach to ride it out - no good elevation, no parking garage, etc.  Which is why they went on further down 98 to Port St. Joe and had planned to hunker down in/near a hospital there.  But then their "boss" (at LSM) called them (and you could hear the audio exchange in the background as it happened if you watched it live), and told them to head back to Mexico Beach (in fact insisted)... and they protested, mentioning that there was surge due to come in there... But the guy on the other end of the phone was claiming "there is no surge" or something to that effect, and like 5 minutes later, the surge started.  None of that audio exchange appears on the video they eventually posted, where they only include audio when they were about to bail... and they left out the earlier part when they were leaving Port St. Joe and got back on the road headed towards Mexico Beach.  But anyone who watched them live as it happened, heard the exchange.

One of the reasons why I like watching Brett and his partner (Stephen?) is that their conversations are downright hilarious. They are not as show-boaty as Jeff P. but their quips and asides of other drivers out on the road or places they drive past, are a riot. I know many of the other chasers are pretty quiet or broadcast without sound at all.

[NycStormChaser]

6 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

How do "professionals" underestimate the surge of a cat 4 hurricane in the gulf? It's not like they were inland near a bay and the bay rose higher than expected, this was right along an unprotected shoreline prior to a cat 4. Underestimating the surge in that location is like standing on the rim of a volcano before it erupts...

It's easy to criticse from the sidelines but no body knows what happened before hand or what they were thinking. I for one am grateful they are okay and have no intention of talking negatively about them. To each their own though 

[Hurricane Agnes]

11 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

It's easy to criticse from the sidelines but no body knows what happened before hand or what they were thinking.

There were a whole pile of people (well a couple hundred or so, me included) watching them and listening to them and they were very much talking about their predicament.  But what I didn't realize until later is that they actually "work for" someone else (now?). I always thought Brett was sortof "in charge" of the operation because he has his name/email listed for media outlets to reference.  But apparently he has a "higher up" (Live Storms Media) now that has more formally monetized his activity and I suppose, handles selling the footage... And that is who they were on the phone with just before this all happened.  I'll tell you that they were both whining in the car about going back... I recall him saying something like "Hey, he really wants us to do it..." or something to that effect, like it was pretty much an "order".  So although they probably had a choice to put their foot down and stay where they were, they decided to try it anyway and see how far they could get.

[NycStormChaser]

7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

There were a whole pile of people (well a couple hundred or so, me included) watching them and listening to them and they were very much talking about their predicament.  But what I didn't realize until later is that they actually "work for" someone else (now?). I always thought Brett was sortof "in charge" of the operation because he has his name/email listed for media outlets to reference.  But apparently he has a "higher up" (Live Storms Media) now that has more formally monetized his activity and I suppose, handles selling the footage... And that is who they were on the phone with just before this all happened.  I'll tell you that they were both whining in the car about going back... I recall him saying something like "Hey, he really wants us to do it..." or something to that effect, like it was pretty much an "order".  So although they probably had a choice to put their foot down and stay where they were, they decided to try it anyway and see how far they could get.

I am aware of that. But no one listening to the livestream have been in his shoes at that moment. I'm out of this discussion. 

[sojitodd]

29 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

There were a whole pile of people (well a couple hundred or so, me included) watching them and listening to them and they were very much talking about their predicament.  But what I didn't realize until later is that they actually "work for" someone else (now?). I always thought Brett was sortof "in charge" of the operation because he has his name/email listed for media outlets to reference.  But apparently he has a "higher up" (Live Storms Media) now that has more formally monetized his activity and I suppose, handles selling the footage... And that is who they were on the phone with just before this all happened.  I'll tell you that they were both whining in the car about going back... I recall him saying something like "Hey, he really wants us to do it..." or something to that effect, like it was pretty much an "order".  So although they probably had a choice to put their foot down and stay where they were, they decided to try it anyway and see how far they could get.

I was watching and I clearly remember the part where the guy was saying "there is no surge" and all. I could not believe it. And you could hear them responding in disbelief to that comment. Brett even said he was worried about the surge-and he was right to be worried. They were being pushed by that guy they were talking to. That guy is the one I am most pissed off about. How could he say something like that and then here comes a huge storm surge just minutes later. 

 

They should never have gone anywhere from which they had no plan of escape or place of refuge staked out in case they were trapped.  That was just a poor choice and poor choices were made all around it seems and it is just good that none of these chasers lost their lives. Will it take a hurricane chaser equivalent of Tim Samaras for people to wake up?

[Hurricane Agnes]

28 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

I am aware of that. But no one listening to the livestream have been in his shoes at that moment. I'm out of this discussion. 

Oh I am not complaining about the decisions those guys made.  They are there, they know their vehicles and what they can and can't do, they know what they have done many times before (although obviously every storm is different and every geographic area is different).  I truly appreciate you guys who do it!  Hell, a whole pile of folks watched Randy and Forky and other crazies chase a Lake Effect blizzard up at the Tug Hill plateau a bunch of years ago and live blog it so... 

[Hurricane Agnes]

11 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

I was watching and I clearly remember the part where the guy was saying "there is no surge" and all. I could not believe it. And you could hear them responding in disbelief to that comment. Brett even said he was worried about the surge-and he was right to be worried. They were being pushed by that guy they were talking to. That guy is the one I am most pissed off about. How could he say something like that and then here comes a huge storm surge just minutes later. 

 

They should never have gone anywhere where from which they had no plan of escape or place of refuge staked out in case they were trapped.  That was just a poor choice and poor choices were made all around it seems and it is just good that none of these chasers lost their lives. Will it take a hurricane chaser equivalent of Tim Samaras for people to wake up?

This is exactly right. 

I don't know if his business arrangement is now as a "salary" or is just a "commission" or what, but it seems that given their remarks, they probably would have stayed where they were or not ventured too far away from a "safe" (relatively) spot so they could get back in time... unless they had to go for some "payment for services". So they had to make a decision on the spot.

[AU74]

48 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

It's easy to criticse from the sidelines but no body knows what happened before hand or what they were thinking. I for one am grateful they are okay and have no intention of talking negatively about them. To each their own though 

Where else should people comment from, under several feet of surge?

[Chinook]

On 10/10/2018 at 9:23 PM, Amped said:

Yes a 975 low hit the coast with a microscopic 919 contour south of LA. I think this settles the debate, it was a Category 1.

That's hilarious. Thanks.

[SharonA]

14 hours ago, snowman21 said:

 Consider the cloud height indicator by itself can use more than 5A when the heater and blower are active. Most of the instruments have heaters that run nearly continuously in cold weather, so power consumption can add up fast. Plus there are various components and peripherals (computers and communication devices) inside the equipment cabinet which is about the size of a server rack. The whole system is pretty power hungry, more so than a major household appliance, when everything is maxed out.

Interesting information.  I hadn't realized it was that power-intensive.  TILSN.  Thanks!

 

 

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:

It's easy to criticse from the sidelines but no body knows what happened before hand or what they were thinking. I for one am grateful they are okay and have no intention of talking negatively about them. To each their own though 

They really need to be publicly shamed and criticized to prevent others from doing the same thing. Because if all everyone takes from this is hugs and smiles and "well just thank god they're okay", the next major storm to hit the US we'll have chasers trying to ride out a cat 4 on a barrier island in order to get the best shot since nothing physically nor legally happened to them miraculously due to their complete ignorance of basic chaser safety. 

[Roger Smith]

That "no surge" guy must have read comments somewhere on the internet that Panama City would be spared a storm surge, and thought that would apply as far south as Mexico Beach but in all probability the storm surge was something like 3' around Panama City, 10' just a little south of Tyndall and appeared to be 12-15 feet at least in Mexico Beach. There would have been a horrendous result if Michael had been even five miles to the left of its actual path, ten to fifteen would have been worst case scenario (for metro Panama City). 

That's the only good thing we can say about this strongest of all cat-2 hurricanes.

 

[Roger Smith]

A footnote, the 2000 Michael was no dud either, it became a cat-2 hurricane just before hitting isolated villages on the south coast of Newfoundland and it did some damage there, I don't recall all the details but if that same storm had hit Long Island then this would have had a different name than Michael. 

[Windspeed]

That "no surge" guy must have read comments somewhere on the internet that Panama City would be spared a storm surge, and thought that would apply as far south as Mexico Beach but in all probability the storm surge was something like 3' around Panama City, 10' just a little south of Tyndall and appeared to be 12-15 feet at least in Mexico Beach. There would have been a horrendous result if Michael had been even five miles to the left of its actual path, ten to fifteen would have been worst case scenario (for metro Panama City). 

That's the only good thing we can say about this strongest of all cat-2 hurricanes.

We almost always have a worse scenario with every bad landfall. Michael is no exception. Actually, perhaps 8-10 miles further west would have been the death knell. It would have put PC in the worst of the eastern eyewall and PCB in the worst if the western eyewall and maximized destruction for the most infrastructure damage and people in harms way. Fortunately that did not occur, but no less downplays the catastrophe for the region.

[Roger Smith]

Going to post this in the main thread too, cannot comment on the accuracy but very interesting:

 

(from twitter, this didn't post quite the way it looks on my reply screen)

 

[ct_yankee]

3 hours ago, sojitodd said:

They should never have gone anywhere from which they had no plan of escape or place of refuge staked out in case they were trapped.  That was just a poor choice and poor choices were made all around it seems and it is just good that none of these chasers lost their lives. Will it take a hurricane chaser equivalent of Tim Samaras for people to wake up?

 

Except Tim's death and the various other stormchaser casualties haven't really changed the way people chase. When you chase a tornado, death is a possibility, every serious chaser knows this and always has known it. It's an inherently hazardous undertaking, not unlike, say, mountain climbing or sky diving. Someday a hurricane is probably going to kill a chaser, who can doubt it? But they take the risk knowingly, and if that's what they want to do, who are we to say it's wrong? We can debate ethics all day long, but it's never going to stop people from chasing, any more than Tim Samaras's death did. Any death is a tragedy, of course, but I know of no one who quit tornado chasing after El Reno.

 

 

Disclosure, FWIW: I do enjoy chasing storms myself. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Hurricane and land-based severe convective weather/tornado chasing are rather different animals.

Tornadoes develop on much shorter timescales and may not always develop, even from a seemingly intense supercell in favorable conditions. With hurricane chasing, you know you're going to have a storm. With tornadoes, they and their parent supercells haven't formed yet when you make your target. You don't have days of modeling their potential tracks, they can take sudden turns (See: El Reno) but more often than not move with the parent supercells.

The objective of tornado chasing usually isn't to put yourself in the core of strongest winds, unless you're in a vehicle like the TIV or Dominator (Again, see: El Reno).

With tornadoes, you don't have to contend with surge, and you usually don't run the risk of being trapped in a disaster area for potentially several days, with blocked roads, no power, and no open gas stations for 50 miles in any direction.

[ct_yankee]

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Hurricane and land-based severe convective weather/tornado chasing are rather different animals.

Tornadoes develop on much shorter timescales and may not always develop, even from a seemingly intense supercell in favorable conditions. With hurricane chasing, you know you're going to have a storm. With tornadoes, they and their parent supercells haven't formed yet when you make your target. You don't have days of modeling their potential tracks, they can take sudden turns (See: El Reno) but more often than not move with the parent supercells.

The objective of tornado chasing usually isn't to put yourself in the core of strongest winds, unless you're in a vehicle like the TIV or Dominator (Again, see: El Reno).

With tornadoes, you don't have to contend with surge, and you usually don't run the risk of being trapped in a disaster area for potentially several days, with blocked roads, no power, and no open gas stations for 50 miles in any direction.

Agreed, absolutely, and that's pretty much why I don't chase hurricanes, not unless they come right to me. But that's just me, others feel differently. For some, hurricanes are their one true passion, and chasing tornadoes might just be something to do during the off-season. I've known chasers like that. And of course some (like Josh, I believe) don't bother with tornadoes at all.

[NycStormChaser]

3 hours ago, ct_yankee said:

Agreed, absolutely, and that's pretty much why I don't chase hurricanes, not unless they come right to me. But that's just me, others feel differently. For some, hurricanes are their one true passion, and chasing tornadoes might just be something to do during the off-season. I've known chasers like that. And of course some (like Josh, I believe) don't bother with tornadoes at all.

Well said. Josh was in the same hotel as me during Michael. He's strictly hurricane and typhoons

[NycStormChaser]

3 hours ago, ct_yankee said:

 

Except Tim's death and the various other stormchaser casualties haven't really changed the way people chase. When you chase a tornado, death is a possibility, every serious chaser knows this and always has known it. It's an inherently hazardous undertaking, not unlike, say, mountain climbing or sky diving. Someday a hurricane is probably going to kill a chaser, who can doubt it? But they take the risk knowingly, and if that's what they want to do, who are we to say it's wrong? We can debate ethics all day long, but it's never going to stop people from chasing, any more than Tim Samaras's death did. Any death is a tragedy, of course, but I know of no one who quit tornado chasing after El Reno.

 

 

Disclosure, FWIW: I do enjoy chasing storms myself. 

Bingo

[Hurricane Agnes]

16 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

That "no surge" guy must have read comments somewhere on the internet that Panama City would be spared a storm surge, and thought that would apply as far south as Mexico Beach but in all probability the storm surge was something like 3' around Panama City, 10' just a little south of Tyndall and appeared to be 12-15 feet at least in Mexico Beach. There would have been a horrendous result if Michael had been even five miles to the left of its actual path, ten to fifteen would have been worst case scenario (for metro Panama City). 

That's the only good thing we can say about this strongest of all cat-2 hurricanes.

 

I found a posting of their "raw" video where the audio was left intact as they left Port St. Joe and just before the more-shown video of them bailing as the surge came in.  The exchange about the "surge" starts at ~4:17 -

 

[Benadrill]

"No surge" man should never give anyone any logistics advice to anyone ever again. I was watching the stream for over an hour before the surge happened. Brett originally left Mexico Beach for Port St. Joe due to it being such low elevation and being concerned about the surge.  Brett's car passenger also told Brett it was a really bad idea to stay in Mexico beach, so they left. Their plan was to go to some sort of Hospital in Port St. Joe because it had a better elevation. When they were on the marina they got a call from "No surge" man who egged Brett on to go back to Mexico beach. And then the call from when he was on speaker phone. From the way Brett talked to him it sounded like he was his boss? He literally had no concern for Bretts safety until it was too late.

Of course personal responsibility comes into play but pressuring someone to risk their life for views is rather abhorrent. I'm sure everyone has a friend they know they could talk them into doing something dumb, but don't. 

[Benadrill]

1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I found a posting of their "raw" video where the audio was left intact as they left Port St. Joe and just before the more-shown video of them bailing as the surge came in.  The exchange about the "surge" starts at ~4:17 -

 

Here is the unedited video