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Michael Banter Thread

Windspeed

By Windspeed,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Keelala

Keelala

Posted
Posted

Good. Let's have some actual banter with actual facts, shall we?

My mom is visiting and I took her into town today so I wasn't able to watch this unfold as I would have liked. Lady working at an art gallery totally let me peek over her shoulder while she was looking at pictures of the damage. Looks pretty hellish in FL right now. I know there was some warning but it seems like this one snuck up on them... unlike Florence which we were watching for weeks. Lost of people didn't evacuate and the death toll is gonna climb over the next few days. Really need to stop rebuilding coastal communities.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

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Meh, I like the community that posts here. I also enjoy the discussions more. The ****show was extreme, yes, but not typical of most landfall threads here. Mods volunteer their time so I'm not going to criticize, but I do wish the meteorological thread had went into Storm Mode last night when it became clear that we were going to have a major landfall.

 

Having said that, I enjoy not having to type a bloody damn disclaimer every time I want to analyze development, modeling or a forecast, or be careful about my opinion if is not in line with an official agency.

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the ghost of leroy

the ghost of leroy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Meh, I like the community that posts here. I also enjoy the discussions more. The ****show was extreme, yes, but not typical of most landfall threads here. Mods volunteer their time so I'm not going to criticize, but I do wish the meteorological thread had went into Storm Mode last night when it became clear that we were going to have a major landfall.

 

Having said that, I enjoy not having to type a bloody damn disclaimer every time I want to analyze development, modeling or a forecast, or be careful about my sharing my opinion it is not in line with an official agency.

I just hate that they have 139 pinned threads above the useful threads. The disclaimer is what it is. 

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Meh, I like the community that posts here. I also enjoy the discussions more. The ****show was extreme, yes, but not typical of most landfall threads here. Mods volunteer their time so I'm not going to criticize, but I do wish the meteorological thread had went into Storm Mode last night when it became clear that we were going to have a major landfall.

 

Having said that, I enjoy not having to type a bloody damn disclaimer every time I want to analyze development, modeling or a forecast, or be careful about my sharing my opinion it is not in line with an official agency.

Yeah I agree, I know some hate overmoderation, which I understand but there is a definite need for a few more mods to help out especially after the last 2 hurricanes.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I agree, I know some hate overmoderation, which I understand but there is a definite need for a few more mods to help out especially after the last 2 hurricanes.

I did some clean up during Florence. Got some flack for my effort. Since I'm not being paid, this time I just watched. It turned into what I expected. Kind of funny once you decide not to care about it.  I'd estimate it has been a cat 1 thread at best.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jburns said:

I did some clean up during Florence. Got some flack for my effort. Since I'm not being paid, this time I just watched. It turned into what I expected. Kind of funny once you decide not to care about it.  I'd estimate it has been a cat 1 thread at best.

Whoever is giving mods flack needs to stop, because they are going to continue to lose red taggers who don't have patience for nonsense. It is a crock that someone is complaining about mods doing what needs to be done.

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jburns

jburns

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Whoever is giving mods flack needs to stop, because they are going to continue to lose red taggers who don't have patience for nonsense. It is a crock that someone is complaining about mods doing what needs to be done.

It goes with the territory. Doesn't bother me. I just decided to sit and enjoy the spectacle for once.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

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I've just thought it was always weird to have to remind everyone that you aren't an official source of information on a weather forum. I mean, I get it if you are making videos or posting media like Levi Cowan or Jeff Masters on your weather blog, regardless if you are a professional. But if a person uses a poster's forecast opinion on a weather forum over an official agency to make life or property decisions, regardless if the poster is a professional, well... what the hell are you doing? Weather forums are for professionals, enthusiasts and amateurs to discuss weather and science-related matters. But policing and forcing that is annoying and counterintuitive.

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the ghost of leroy

the ghost of leroy

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Whoever is giving mods flack needs to stop, because they are going to continue to lose red taggers who don't have patience for nonsense. It is a crock that someone is complaining about mods doing what needs to be done.

I gave him flack because he banned me for roasting NYC weenies who everyone later agreed were awful. 

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jburns

jburns

Posted
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6 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I gave him flack because he banned me for roasting NYC weenies who everyone later agreed were awful. 

Since you brought it up, you still owe me the public apology you agreed to when I let you back.  You remember. You ran to Randy and it was part of the negotiated settlement when he told me whatever I wanted to do he would be ok with it.  If you can't bring yourself to honor the agreement that's fine. Just be careful to not give me another chance. :)

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Posted

This discussion about the real wind speeds (on land) is pointless because (a) instruments failed before those might have been recorded at some locations, and (b) we have yet to see any documented evidence of actual wind speeds near Mexico Beach. There may be none available. 

Sometimes an assertion can be true for unexpected reasons too. If there's a 12-15 foot storm surge with waves added, the maximum winds will be dislocated higher by at least 12-15 feet. Look at the readings from any ocean buoy in a passing eyewall situation. They rarely get anywhere near the dropsonde measured wind speeds within 50 feet of the mean sea surface, partly because of the low exposure altitudes and partly because of the wave environment. It's hard to get a 145 mph wind between two 30' waves. 

This was no cat-2 but a sustained cat-3 will do considerable damage, a lot of the outcome depends on duration rather than peak gusts. I was living near a tornado path about thirty years ago and watched very brief gusts hit trees near my home that seemed to be EF-2 (like the tornado itself) but they only lasted a few seconds and the trees were not destroyed as they would have been if the gusts had continued for 2-3 minutes. 

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mempho

mempho

Posted
Posted
Meh, I like the community that posts here. I also enjoy the discussions more. The ****show was extreme, yes, but not typical of most landfall threads here. Mods volunteer their time so I'm not going to criticize, but I do wish the meteorological thread had went into Storm Mode last night when it became clear that we were going to have a major landfall.
 
Having said that, I enjoy not having to type a bloody damn disclaimer every time I want to analyze development, modeling or a forecast, or be careful about my opinion if is not in line with an official agency.
Screw it- I enjoy the free speech - trolls notwithstanding.


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Posted

Near the time of landfall there was a 35 mb pressure difference between the two reporting buoys at Panama City and Panama Beach, located maybe 10 miles apart. 

Tyndall AFB was reporting 924 mb when the station went off-line (with northeast winds gusting to 119 knots). If the usual ratio of RFQ to back side prevailed, Mexico Beach or some location a bit closer to Panama City possibly would have been 1.3 to 1.5 times that with the same pressure. (1.3 x 120 = 156 knots, about 175 mph right?). But I suspect the ratio may have been more like 1.1 in this storm due to unequal radar signatures indicating squallier conditions on the normally weaker side, so perhaps 132 knots instead. I don't think we will ever know except from secondary evidence and that will include damage that might have been partially due to wind and partially due to storm surge. In any case, the 918 mb pressure tells most of the story. 

Also that 119 knots may not have been the peak wind gust at Tyndall, although it occurred quite close to the maximum radar wind potential just as the eyewall was coming on shore. 

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the ghost of leroy

the ghost of leroy

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, jburns said:

Since you brought it up, you still owe me the public apology you agreed to when I let you back.  You remember. You ran to Randy and it was part of the negotiated settlement when he told me whatever I wanted to do he would be ok with it.  If you can't bring yourself to honor the agreement that's fine. Just be careful to not give me another chance. :)

I never agreed to a public apology and you can still diaf. :)

And I have the reciepts to prove it.

 

 

 

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