Michael Banter Thread

[Windspeed]

Talk, it's only talk

Arguments, agreements, advice, answers,

Articulate announcements

It's only talk

 

Talk, it's only talk

Babble, burble, banter, bicker bicker bicker

Brouhaha, boulder dash, ballyhoo

It's only talk

Back talk

 

Talk talk talk, it's only talk

Comments, cliches, commentary, controversy

Chatter, chit-chat, chit-chat, chit-chat,

Conversation, contradiction, criticism

It's only talk

Cheap talk

 

Talk, talk, it's only talk

Debates, discussions

These are words with a D this time

Dialogue, duologue, diatribe,

Dissention, declamation

Double talk, double talk

 

Talk, talk, it's all talk

Too much talk

Small talk

Talk that trash

Expressions, editorials, expugnations, exclamations, enfadulations

It's all talk

Elephant talk, elephant talk, elephant talk

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

Supposed to be in Seaside on Thursday. How many days does it usually take to call off the evacuation?

[Windspeed]

Josh Morgerman stated he would be heading out today to chase Michael per his Twitter feed.

[Hoosier]

Would've been something if this hit at the same time that the new Halloween movie comes out.

[Windspeed]

Supposed to be in Seaside on Thursday. How many days does it usually take to call off the evacuation?

 

That's not looking good for you. Hope you can make arrangements for a later date. Though you would rather be on left side of track than right at this point with an advancing trough, as any shift in future track would likely be east vs west. Hopefully Michael isn't bad for Seaside but if surge/wind is bad it may be next week at the earliest due to inundation of low lying areas and power outages due to downed trees.

[the ghost of leroy]

i'm not getting jebaited by an october NGOM landfall.  yall crazy with this hype.

[EasternLI]

50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would've been something if this hit at the same time that the new Halloween movie comes out.

 

[Akeem the African Dream]

we need some good south florida action

these bull**** NGOM storms are happening far too often.  

[bobbutts]

I don't even live there anymore yet I find myself wishcasting this into Port Charlotte..

[Windspeed]

i'm not getting jebaited by an october NGOM landfall.  yall crazy with this hype.

Who is hyping? The forecast is for a major hurricane. Sure, it may not make landfall as such, but hyping or hyperbole is not the case. Have yet to see any gloom and doom posts. Though if this undergoes RI, those will probably appear like clockwork.

[the ghost of leroy]

1 minute ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

we need some good south florida action

these bull**** NGOM storms are happening far too often.  

on the plus side it's an easier drive for our boy raildawg

[the ghost of leroy]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

 

Who is hyping? The forecast is for a major hurricane. Sure, it may not make landfall as such, but hyping or hyperbole is not the case. Have yet to see any gloom and doom posts. Though if this undergoes RI, those will probably appear like clockwork.

 

ok dude.  yeah, no hyping on this board.  especially not when posting those HWRF plots or jerking it to the sudden pressure drop last night

 

 

[Windspeed]

ok dude.  yeah, no hyping on this board.  especially not when posting those HWRF plots or jerking it to the sudden pressure drop last night

 

Because that's not warranted in a meteorological discussion? Haha, yeah. Models show potential major. Don't post that though, it's hype!

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Windspeed said:

 

Because that's not warranted in a meteorological discussion? Haha, yeah. Models show potential major. Don't post that though, it's hype!

discuss it all you want.  i am sure you'll find weenies to go down that hole with ya. hurricane nate last year had plenty of that.

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

That's not looking good for you. Hope you can make arrangements for a later date. Though you would rather be on left side of track than right at this point with an advancing trough, as any shift in future track would likely be east vs west. Hopefully Michael isn't bad for Seaside but if surge/wind is bad it may be next week at the earliest due to inundation of low lying areas and power outages due to downed trees.

We have travel insurance so the financial impact is limited. I’m driving, so I don’t have to deal with the airlines either.

Really hoping this takes a sharp right turn and hits the Big Bend (weakened to a TS, of course)

[Windspeed]

discuss it all you want.  i am sure you'll find weenies to go down that hole with ya. hurricane nate last year had plenty of that.

 

Nate? Nate was a much different setup. This won't be moving at 25 kts at landfall and Michael actually has good modeling and synoptic support to attain major status. You may very well hit the target that Michael is more dud than stud at landfall, as it may be weakening, but to just criticize folks for reacting to actual data on a meteorological forum is essentially trolling. Why don't you post something akin to actual weather reasoning than just being insulting?

[the ghost of leroy]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Nate? Nate was a much different setup. This won't be moving at 25 kts at landfall and Michael actually has good modeling and synoptic support to attain major status. You may very well hit the target that Michael is more dud than stud at landfall, as it may be weakening, but to just criticize folks for reacting to actual data on a meteorological forum is essentially trolling. Why don't you post something akine to actual weather reasoning than just being insulting?

 

omg get over it. it's a banter thread and doing the "climo beats your models" thing has been my schtick for over a decade.

i wasn't even talking about you, but a hit dog hollers.  jeez.

 

[Windspeed]

omg get over it. it's a banter thread and doing the "climo beats your models" thing has been my schtick for over a decade.
i wasn't even talking about you, but a hit dog hollers.  jeez.
 

Calling out your crap is also what the banter thread is for..

[the ghost of leroy]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

 

Calling out your crap is also what the banter thread is for..

 

 

i dont understand why you have such a hard on for me when essentially all i said was that the major hype is likely to be wrong.

you're a good poster and should be able to recognize that my track record on this stuff is better than just about everyone here. 

trust me, i'd love to wrong and watch a cat 4 plow into the redneck riviera. but this is gonna be a sleeper ass cat 1...i think...

 

[Windspeed]

 

i dont understand why you have such a hard on for me when essentially all i said was that the major hype is likely to be wrong.

you're a good poster and should be able to recognize that my track record on this stuff is better than just about everyone here. 

trust me, i'd love to wrong and watch a cat 4 plow into the redneck riviera. but this is gonna be a sleeper ass cat 1...i think...

 

 

Yeah, I do not want a Cat 3, much less 4. But keep in mind, just because it's a banter thread doesn't mean you get to trash people without getting any flack yourself. This certainly isn't personal, however, so fair enough. This is hardly a heated disagreement and I'm not stopping you.

 

[the ghost of leroy]

I’m totally gonna trash people at some point, but I haven’t yet. Once again, you read my post and got in your own feelings about it. 

[mappy]

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

i'm not getting jebaited by an october NGOM landfall.  yall crazy with this hype.

What do you think it peaks at?  Say if it gets to cat 3, I have a hard time believing it would weaken 2 categories by the time it makes landfall.  Maybe if it were moving slower but it looks to have relatively steady speed.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Hoosier said:

What do you think it peaks at?  Say if it gets to cat 3, I have a hard time believing it would weaken 2 categories by the time it makes landfall.  Maybe if it were moving slower but it looks to have relatively steady speed.

You can read my call in the more exclusive tropical thread at ampol. 

[Windspeed]

There’s little doubt the euro will likely be too slow on what it had for it’s forward motion of the hurricane.  The question is are the models too fast with the inbound trof/front from the MS valley.  I’m inclined to think they are so I still lean with something west of the NHC track after landfall

It's still early and time for shifts in models, but I have to give props to SnowGoose69. He has been sticking with a further west track vs the previously slower and further east modeling by the ECMWF. But that shift west and increase in forward speed by the 12z ECMWF was an eyeopener.

[mempho]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

What do you think it peaks at?  Say if it gets to cat 3, I have a hard time believing it would weaken 2 categories by the time it makes landfall.  Maybe if it were moving slower but it looks to have relatively steady speed.

I live in the southeast and, if people are thinking this is going to be weakened by dry air entrainment from off land, I think they'll be disappointed.  There is no dry air in the southeast just like there hasn't been since May.  It's all still one big swamp here- and I'll say that's the difference between now and say- Hurricane Lili.  Now, I heard there may be some dry air over the Yucatan but this thing isn't going to be gagging on dry air from the north this time.  

[the ghost of leroy]

23 minutes ago, mempho said:

I live in the southeast and, if people are thinking this is going to be weakened by dry air entrainment from off land, I think they'll be disappointed.  There is no dry air in the southeast just like there hasn't been since May.  It's all still one big swamp here- and I'll say that's the difference between now and say- Hurricane Lili.  Now, I heard there may be some dry air over the Yucatan but this thing isn't going to be gagging on dry air from the north this time.  

Yeah. No dry air

 

[mempho]

Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Yeah. No dry air

 

What's the scale on that map?  Dewpoint is 68 at Memphis right now, 68 at JAN, and it's 70 in Albany, GA.  That's not exactly a huge differential.  

[the ghost of leroy]

There’s more to the equation than dewpoints, this shows water vapor higher up in the atmosphere. Don’t know about the scale, though. NASA’s fancy GOES page doesn’t have one 

 

[mempho]

7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

There’s more to the equation than dewpoints, this shows water vapor higher up in the atmosphere. Don’t know about the scale, though. NASA’s fancy GOES page doesn’t have one 

 

Thanks!  There may be some dry air in the upper levels but that should mix out some when this gets caught in Michael's circulation.  For a long time now, things have felt more reminiscent of August or early September than of October.  Our dewpoints (and overnight lows) have been way, way above normal (consistently +10 to +15) for weeks now and that's been a southeast phenomenon.  That's not to say dry air entrainment won't occur (it does that in August, too, ala Katrina) but I would expect that dry air punch to be like you'd expect from an August hurricane rather than an October one.

Also consider that the shallow shelf waters are going to not provide much in the way of cooling the way they typically would.  Obviously, this thing will have to undergo RI for any of that mean much, though.  If it does rapidly strengthen, then the rapid forward motion isn't likely to allow much time for either to do its work, though.