Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I have to agree with Ryan. The intensity forecast were atrocious. And it’s perfectly OK to admit that. I saw some tweets today from Marshall shepherd, which acted like it was fine to ignore the intensity forecast. Fact of the matter is, those intensity forecasts can mean the difference between life and death decisions.  Florence is another example. Although we were told to ignore the intensity, and focus on rain and surge, the intensity forecasts are also bad.  We have a lot of work to do, in this area. 

This was my point exactly!

Intensity forecast sucked big time...but did you see how some came right to the defense of the NWS/NHC.  Making it look like the intensity forecast was just fine, cuz Monday afternoon they started to say maybe a major cane was possible. I realize this is a very tough area of forecasting...but sometime you have to just admit poor performance, and where things need improvement. 

 

But my thoughts are like yours ...Lots of work to do on this for sure. 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

5

 

The pics on Josh Morgerman's Twitter are unreal.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I definitely have a different take. I thought the intensity forecasts were flat out bad. Not sure they could have done anything different but I certainly did not expect the 3rd most powerful US landfall on record - even 24 hours out!

There's not much they could have done differently though. We suck at intensity forecasting. 

Thankfully this struck a sparsely populated area - but forecast busts with intensity matter and they certainly have the ability to kill. How many people who expected a 4 in NC from Florence and got a cat 1 won't listen next time? 

This is a phenomenal point. I get the fact that at times intensity ratings can be a bit misleading (especially when talking about storm surge/flood potential) but you can't be telling the public to ignore the intensity with one storm and then not ignore it for another storm. There needs to be consistency otherwise the public just gets confused.

Also, when saying to ignore intensity one time and not another could also just be an act to cover up an incorrect forecast. For example, with Florence...many were screaming cat 3/4 for landfall but then when it was obvious that wasn't going to happen those cried...well don't focus on the intensity focus on the other aspects. It was pretty clear Florence wouldn't hit as a major but what was clear was the degree of rainfall that would occur. That should have been harped from the get-go.

[Hoth]

One of the rare occasions when the actual storm was deeper than the GFS projected.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The NHC did very well IMO. I think you can argue that the environment (shear, mid level rh) was still something that could have negatively impacted the rate of intensification for Michael, but it just blasted through all of that with an inertially stable core. 

It’s funny cuz you say that the shear environment was something that could have negatively impacted Michael.  And Ginxy says the shear environment was “favorable” for intensification of Michael.  

 

I dont know know which one it is...but Ginxy’s idea seems to be the one that was correct...cuz Michael became about as strong as he could practically be.

 

Or if The shear environment was truly hostile...why didn’t it do its dirty work to Michael, like it does to every other Hurricane??  

 

Very interesting to say the least. 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

 

Thankfully this struck a sparsely populated area - but forecast busts with intensity matter and they certainly have the ability to kill. How many people who expected a 4 in NC from Florence and got a cat 1 won't listen next time? 

 

Last 2 storms...  People expected a Cat 4 in NC and got a Cat 1.  People in the Panhandle expected a Cat 1 and got a Cat 4. 

 I agree intensity forecasts stink compared to track forecasts.   The NHC discussions seemed to play catchup time and time again with this storm.  I wonder if it had another 6 hours before landfall how low the pressure would have gone?  Lots of discussion about mid level shear.  Dry air in Gulf.  Shallow water.  Storms almost always lose intensity as they approach the extreme N Gulf waters.  Nothing mattered with Mike.  Eye was even clear 15 miles inland.  

It was an amazing storm and luckily it hit in a low populated area all and all although East Panama City had huge amounts of damage along with Mexico Beach. Would have been worse if eye came ashore at Panama Beach and the city was in NE quad.  

[BRSno]

Wow, looks like a massive tornado ripped through the entire area. Extremely devastating. 

[WinterWolf]

Personally I think it had a lot to do with the timing of its intensity cycle...which was as perfectly timed as can be, with regard to where it bombed/was bombing On its journey to the coastline.  

 

Most seem to bomb much farther out...and then undergo ERC’s as they approach, which weakens the system some for a while...Michael never had a chance to have that happen to him...cuz he was bombing so close to the coast. 

 

The perfect storm so to speak in that regard...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s funny cuz you say that the shear environment was something that could have negatively impacted Michigan hael.  And Ginxy says the shear environment was “favorable” for intensification of Michael.  

 

I dont know know which one it is...but Ginxy’s idea seems to be the one that was correct...cuz Michael became about as strong as he could practically be.

 

Or if The shear environment was truly hostile...why didn’t it do its dirty work to Michael, like it does to every other Hurricane??  

 

Very interesting to say the least. 

Jordan, Jackson, Phelps, Vick....the list goes on. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s funny cuz you say that the shear environment was something that could have negatively impacted Michael.  And Ginxy says the shear environment was “favorable” for intensification of Michael.  

 

I dont know know which one it is...but Ginxy’s idea seems to be the one that was correct...cuz Michael became about as strong as he could practically be.

 

Or if The shear environment was truly hostile...why didn’t it do its dirty work to Michael, like it does to every other Hurricane??  

 

Very interesting to say the least. 

We've seen a few storms intensify rapidly under the influence of shear the last few years. Matthew went cat 5 in the Caribbean while facing significant shear, and everyone thought Joaquin would amount to nothing a few years back. We ragged on Jimmy for claiming it would go cat 5, and then it actually came within a hair's breadth. These things just do weird counterintuitive stuff sometimes. I actually was getting flashbacks to Harvey yesterday morning as Michael's eye tightened up and warmed on final approach. Staggering stuff.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Watching some footage from Mexico Beach area.  Jeezus they got destroyed.   Slabs

 

[ROOSTA]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Watching some footage from Mexico Beach area.  Jeezus they got destroyed.   Slabs

 

The damage is reminisce of Andrew. Drove through Homestead on 1A down to the Keys (chasing tail) a year after landfall, an area of about 4-5miles just stripped of not only trees, palms but structures gone. Scary sh*t. Being now in the game and brushed the past few years has me second guessing wanting to experience a Major!    

[Typhoon Tip]

These municipal offices do the best job they can with the resources that are provided to them…

 I'm sure that there's been a bit of a talent drain in a lot of these offices. 

 It's too bad… The writing was on the wall. I mentioned in that ought people not to lower their guard based on some historical precedent for systems weakening as they approach coast… I cited reasons why that was the case at the time. When I woke up to a category 4 the other day it was more frustrating than anything else. 

[Amped]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 I have to agree with Ryan. The intensity forecast were atrocious. And it’s perfectly OK to admit that. I saw some tweets today from Marshall shepherd, which acted like it was fine to ignore the intensity forecast. Fact of the matter is, those intensity forecasts can mean the difference between life and death decisions.  Florence is another example. Although we were told to ignore the intensity, and focus on rain and surge, the intensity forecasts are also bad.  We have a lot of work to do, in this area.  

Agreed even 12 hrs before landfall is enough time for a 940mb storm to strengthen or weaken 20mb, and there are ones that have done both.  Makes it hard to be a forecaster.

[Tom12309]

The comment about "expect a 4, get a 1 and expect a 1, get a 4 (+?)" is spot on as far as the public goes.  I think most people go hurricane=wind and if the wind forecast isn't nailed each and every time they say the usual "must be a nice job where you can be wrong all the time"... to which the only appropriate reply is, in my opinion, "you know how complex a fluid dynamic system you're dealing with, dumbass?" but I digress so the nut is how do you, outside of the people that have seen a few and intuitively sense what's coming, get the message across that it might look good or bad but it could get a lot worse so be ready?

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, Tom12309 said:

The comment about "expect a 4, get a 1 and expect a 1, get a 4 (+?)" is spot on as far as the public goes.  I think most people go hurricane=wind and if the wind forecast isn't nailed each and every time they say the usual "must be a nice job where you can be wrong all the time"... to which the only appropriate reply is, in my opinion, "you know how complex a fluid dynamic system you're dealing with, dumbass?" but I digress so the nut is how do you, outside of the people that have seen a few and intuitively sense what's coming, get the message across that it might look good or bad but it could get a lot worse so be ready?

Much of this line of thinking comes from the way most people's brain's process things, particularly with regard to occurrences that are not necessarily set in stone and that they are unable to truly quantify.  People take whatever info they hear on the radio, or see on websites, twitter feeds, and the t.v., and that worst (or best) case scenario becomes instantly ingrained within their conscious. The weather/ news outlets are partially to blame as well.  I think that the producers and those behind the scenes know how easily the public can get hooked on an event, especially if the extreme outcome is laid out there.  When Michael was making landfall I was at the gym, and within a 90 minute span the storm went from cat 4 to cat 3...but, all that CNN was noting was that the storm made landfall "Near Cat 5". This headline went on for a few hours after that.  The whole, "Near Cat 5" was almost all they were focused on.  They WANTED so badly to keep using that has the headline.  Just say Category 4.  

On the other hand there are reasonable minded people who are able to take the data and logically sort through what is given, and knowing that forecasting is not an exact science not become so biased towards one outcome or another.  

 

[WinterWolf]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I've always had a lot of respect for the job you do for us in CT.

I think you alluded to what my general point was. Given the information the NHC had, they did the best they could and did well to point out as soon as they could that a major hurricane impact was possible. The larger issue--accurate intensity forecasting at range when analyzing the overall environment and guidance is certainly a major issue. We've seen the NHC have to play catch up twice this year with the two highest stakes systems, Florence and Michael. 

The communication piece is still very difficult as well, as you know in your experience trying to forecast other types of wx. You're right, intensity busts matter and can kill, both in the immediate (people don't leave because it's not bad enough) and long term (people don't leave because they don't believe it will be bad enough). I'm not sure how you effectively address that with the current tools available, even though we've seen a lot of progress in recent decades. We just have to get better. 

When I worked in the Senate, I staffed a Commerce Committee hearing on hurricane forecasting with Dr. Knabb as the witness. It seemed that the supplemental funding in the wake of Sandy, and the partnerships between NOAA offices and academia has allowed the ball to be moved forward scientifically, and there was more interest in using unmanned aircraft to provide more sampling in real time to NHC forecasters. In the communications space, focusing less on category and more on impacts has probably had mixed success, while I think the key points in the discussion are great. 

That's a lot of words, but I wonder if that'd help? Perhaps more probabilistic forecasting explicitly introduced into the advisories and discussions?  

Yeah, I don't think any good forecaster would want to ignore the intensity forecast. It missed the mark at the end of the day. It's an opportunity to study what went wrong and learn how to be better. We certainly have a lot of work to do in this area. 

Well, the shear environment was favorable overall. From what I understand, there was a ribbon of shear just to the north and west which impacted it for a while, but it wasn't enough to slow intensification or cause weakening. Once you had the turn toward the NE the orientation of the winds was such to improve outflow and the rest was history.

My point before landfall was given the shear in the vicinity and mid-level RH, there was potential for under-modeled shear or ingestion of dry air to harm the core. I was really torn. I thought it could go either way. I don't think anyone anticipated 155mph/919mb from a disorganized low that came from a CAG though. 

Part of the thing that has always fascinated me with tropical is how sensitive systems seem to be to environmental conditions. It is extraordinarily difficult to predict intensity and very difficult to figure out track especially at D4 and D5. Just look at some of the systems we've had this season. There's always something to learn and always an opportunity to be humbled. 

Unfortunately, learning and humility can come at the expense of lives and property. 

This is a good post in answering my question WxWatcher007..... I agree that this situation shows us there is much to learn.  

 

Yes, nobody expected a 919mb Behemoth on their hands from what it started out as....reminds me of that saying:  From Tiny Acorns, Come Big Oaks.    Michael was a "Big Oak" that came from small humble beginnings.

[Cold Miser]

What was the approximate diameter of the eye just before the storm made landfall?

[#NoPoles]

2.63 inches per my station 

[Ginx snewx]

Just heard chatter of 160 sustained with 917 . That would be incredible once verified 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just heard chatter of 160 sustained with 917 . That would be incredible once verified 

Nope.  Cat 2...because...data

[Hoth]

9 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nope.  Cat 2...because...data

Maybe SENC meant Mach 2? 

[Ginx snewx]

9 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nope.  Cat 2...because...data

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Yeah. I watched that last night on the big screen. Absolutely terrifying.  And EF3 tornado that lasts 45 minutes

I never ever want to witness anything close.   Was just watching a story about an animal shelter that was hit but was unscathed due to its building design (big concrete dome).  Heart wrenching 

[Hoth]

You guys seen the chase video in the Michael banter thread with the guys that get themselves pinned down on Mexico Beach as the surge comes in? Scary as hell. Think the truck was floating away at the end.

[OSUmetstud]

One of our guys out on the waq south of ns had a nice stinger last night from post-michael. 73g86kt at 60m.

They were in that warm IR area south of the edge of the comma head. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my post storm wrap up, complete with grading:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/10/historic-and-catastrophic-hurricane.html

[Modfan]

So I have been working in the FL Pan Handle (pretty much just east of Tallahasse SW to Panama City. I worked Panama City Saturday and Mexico Beach yesterday; the destruction is just unbelievable and thats putting it mildly. The only comparison I have is Brimfield and Monson after the Tornado but spread over a 100 mile area vs 1 mile wide path. We worked putting temp communications at the DPW yard, the yard is about a block and a half from the Ocean and the water line in the garage was 3 1/2ft! The storm surge combined with the wind just left a landfill of debris blocks north. Just crazy to see!

I have a question for mets, I noticed tree damage north of Mexico Beach towards Blountsville where pine were snapped half way up toward the east and others in same tree line bent like heavy snow or ice damage; is this eye wall damage?

 

The little towns north of the coast like Blountsville are hit hard and locals were seemed to think a lot od damage is from tornadoes. Folks spirits are hard hit but I am seeing a lot neighbors helping neighbor attitudes. Like in Houston with the Cajun Navy they have started the Chainsaw Army to help people clear trees from on their houses and driveways. Anyone with a saw or tarping skills there is a lot of people need. That's all for now, sorry so long.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Modfan said:

So I have been working in the FL Pan Handle (pretty much just east of Tallahasse SW to Panama City. I worked Panama City Saturday and Mexico Beach yesterday; the destruction is just unbelievable and thats putting it mildly. The only comparison I have is Brimfield and Monson after the Tornado but spread over a 100 mile area vs 1 mile wide path. We worked putting temp communications at the DPW yard, the yard is about a block and a half from the Ocean and the water line in the garage was 3 1/2ft! The storm surge combined with the wind just left a landfill of debris blocks north. Just crazy to see!

I have a question for mets, I noticed tree damage north of Mexico Beach towards Blountsville where pine were snapped half way up toward the east and others in same tree line bent like heavy snow or ice damage; is this eye wall damage?

 

The little towns north of the coast like Blountsville are hit hard and locals were seemed to think a lot od damage is from tornadoes. Folks spirits are hard hit but I am seeing a lot neighbors helping neighbor attitudes. Like in Houston with the Cajun Navy they have started the Chainsaw Army to help people clear trees from on their houses and driveways. Anyone with a saw or tarping skills there is a lot of people need. That's all for now, sorry so long.

These are the towns I really worry about.  Most of the coverage focuses on Panama City and Mexico Beach but some of these small towns are so poor to begin with that this will be difficult to come back from.  I wonder if some never rebuild.

[OceanStWx]

9 hours ago, Modfan said:

So I have been working in the FL Pan Handle (pretty much just east of Tallahasse SW to Panama City. I worked Panama City Saturday and Mexico Beach yesterday; the destruction is just unbelievable and thats putting it mildly. The only comparison I have is Brimfield and Monson after the Tornado but spread over a 100 mile area vs 1 mile wide path. We worked putting temp communications at the DPW yard, the yard is about a block and a half from the Ocean and the water line in the garage was 3 1/2ft! The storm surge combined with the wind just left a landfill of debris blocks north. Just crazy to see!

I have a question for mets, I noticed tree damage north of Mexico Beach towards Blountsville where pine were snapped half way up toward the east and others in same tree line bent like heavy snow or ice damage; is this eye wall damage?

 

The little towns north of the coast like Blountsville are hit hard and locals were seemed to think a lot od damage is from tornadoes. Folks spirits are hard hit but I am seeing a lot neighbors helping neighbor attitudes. Like in Houston with the Cajun Navy they have started the Chainsaw Army to help people clear trees from on their houses and driveways. Anyone with a saw or tarping skills there is a lot of people need. That's all for now, sorry so long.

I mean it's nearly impossible to tell if there was tornado damage embedded in there, because that is the core of the damage from the eyewall. I mean the satellite imagery shows it, it's like a 25+ mile wide tornado scar.