Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

so much bickering about wind speeds in the other thread...doesn't everyone know max winds in any hurricane are likely to be extremely localized

monster of a storm regardless....something that will be in the news for days

Dear lord it's bad in there. People claiming this was a sub 920mb cat 2? Can't make this sh$% up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You should have known better honestly . Never try to portray cockiness and confidence in hurricanes. Ever 

I'm confident because my logic is always sound. No problem with being wrong, though... that's how anyone learns.

I gave credit where it was due with respect to Michael.

[#NoPoles]

Anyone heard from Rooster? I forget where he lives in FL. I hope he is ok. Surprised he never posted.

[Whineminster]

7 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Anyone heard from Rooster? I forget where he lives in FL. I hope he is ok. Surprised he never posted.

i think he's near Orlando area. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

i think he's near Orlando area. 

No posts on FB as of 6:00 this morning.  Maybe no internet?  I know he has a big generator. 

He is pretty far from the area that was crushed   

[Ginx snewx]

Cat 5 damage and pressure, like Andrew postanalysis will confirm. Seen enough for me

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cat 5 damage and pressure, like Andrew postanalysis will confirm. Seen enough for me

The hype was warranted.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cat 5 damage and pressure, like Andrew postanalysis will confirm. Seen enough for me

Maybe.  Michael's 919 is actually 3 mb lower than Andrew's lowest, but I wonder if any 160+ mph was measured like Andrew at Coral Gables.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe.  Michael's 919 is actually 3 mb lower than Andrew's lowest, but I wonder if any 160+ mph was measured like Andrew at Coral Gables.

I hope PAM saved the obs on the battery back up and that the anemometer didn't just fail altogether. 

[tamarack]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I hope PAM saved the obs on the battery back up and that the anemometer didn't just fail altogether. 

Weren't they on the west side eyewall?  Might be better (meaning, faster) from a place in the east.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Weren't they on the west side eyewall?  Might be better (meaning, faster) from a place in the east.

PAM (Tyndall AFB) was more in the N or NE eyewall. So it was offshore wind, but should be pretty solidly in a bad part of the eyewall.

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

PAM (Tyndall AFB) was more in the N or NE eyewall. So it was offshore wind, but should be pretty solidly in a bad part of the eyewall.

Right.  I think the AFB is located east of town.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I hope PAM saved the obs on the battery back up and that the anemometer didn't just fail altogether. 

When are we going to have anenometers built to withstand up to 200mph winds?  It's frustrating having instruments fail during our most extreme events, the ones that need to be recorded the most!

It was sunny here this morning and then it got really windy and overcast and now we're having hard tropical downpours! Can't see a thing outside.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The hype was warranted.

What becomes the most apparent with Michael, is our lack of skill in forecasting tropical system intensity.  On Saturday the official forecast was for a minimal hurricane coming into the panhandle...wow how this just exploded continually right up to the end.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What becomes the most apparent with Michael, is our lack of skill in forecasting tropical system intensity.  On Saturday the official forecast was for a minimal hurricane coming into the panhandle...wow how this just exploded continually right up to the end.   

Usually the cat 5 out in the open waters generate mass hysteria and us nerds marvel at the spectacle....but then it weakens as it gets closer to LF, and public and some hobbyist ‘meh’ it. This was a worst case scenario...public somewhat brushed it off initially, no big deal, then the seriousness escalated as it approached. It maxed out at the worst time. 

[OceanStWx]

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

When are we going to have anenometers built to withstand up to 200mph winds?  It's frustrating having instruments fail during our most extreme events, the ones that need to be recorded the most!

It was sunny here this morning and then it got really windy and overcast and now we're having hard tropical downpours! Can't see a thing outside.

The Vaisala anemometer is tested to 175 knots for failure, but really can only accurately read up to 125 knots, but flying debris is likely to damage it before then.

[WinterWolf]

Very True.  But it was brushed off because it was forecast to be a minimal Cat 1 over the Weekend.  Then the transformation started to begin Monday afternoon and overnight....and by Tuesday he was off to the races and the seriousness started to set in, as it should have.

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What becomes the most apparent with Michael, is our lack of skill in forecasting tropical system intensity.  On Saturday the official forecast was for a minimal hurricane coming into the panhandle...wow how this just exploded continually right up to the end.   

A huge part of the problem is the forecast is treated as the only number than mattered. There were signs starting the week that Michael had a larger than normal chance to rapidly intensify. 

Taking a probabilistic approach the forecast wasn't as bad. This is a situation where the reasonable worse case scenario (typically the 90th percentile) was the true outcome. It the major reason why the EM community prepares (or should prepare) for that level and not the most likely forecast.

[dan11295]

Couple other things into play here. One is there is little historical precedent for a storm that close to that strong landfalling in that general area, plus the general history for northern gulf storms to weaken before landfall. I don't think even 2 days ago anyone seriously thought Michael was going to make landfall while instensifying at that strength. I mean only 2 landfalling storms in the US with lower pressure were Labor day and Camille and ony 3 with stronger winds were Labor day, Camille and Andrew.

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

A huge part of the problem is the forecast is treated as the only number than mattered. There were signs starting the week that Michael had a larger than normal chance to rapidly intensify. 

Taking a probabilistic approach the forecast wasn't as bad. This is a situation where the reasonable worse case scenario (typically the 90th percentile) was the true outcome. It the major reason why the EM community prepares (or should prepare) for that level and not the most likely forecast.

For the General public for the most part....it is the only number that matters.  If Michael had a larger than normal chance to Rapidly Intensify...Perhaps the NHC should have put in a caveat that, hey this is our official forecast, BUT we are seeing signs that this could explode into something much more significant.  I realize that this was the worst case scenario, and most times this doesn't ever come close to happening.  But it just shows that forecasting the intensity of these tropical systems is in its infancy....or at least so it seems??? 

  

[Ginx snewx]

 

 

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What becomes the most apparent with Michael, is our lack of skill in forecasting tropical system intensity.  On Saturday the official forecast was for a minimal hurricane coming into the panhandle...wow how this just exploded continually right up to the end.   

Things I looked at to have higher than normal confidence. High PWATs, favorable shear environment, excelllent outflow parameters and persistent modeling tightening of core prior to LF. I stuck with my gut too. More and more damage pics coming in , cat 5 

[OceanStWx]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

For the General public for the most part....it is the only number that matters.  If Michael had a larger than normal chance to Rapidly Intensify...Perhaps the NHC should have put in a caveat that, hey this is our official forecast, BUT we are seeing signs that this could explode into something much more significant.  I realize that this was the worst case scenario, and most times this doesn't ever come close to happening.  But it just shows that forecasting the intensity of these tropical systems is in its infancy....or at least so it seems??? 

  

The first major increase was very early Monday morning and then by the 11 AM Monday discussion (48 hours lead time)

Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that
direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a
little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Now that Michael has developed an
inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the
next 24 to 36 hours.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and
DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during
the next 24 hours.  The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24
hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status.

[OceanStWx]

So while that is a short amount of time to take care of all hurricane prep, it is at least a full day before conditions would start to deteriorate.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

For the General public for the most part....it is the only number that matters.  If Michael had a larger than normal chance to Rapidly Intensify...Perhaps the NHC should have put in a caveat that, hey this is our official forecast, BUT we are seeing signs that this could explode into something much more significant.  I realize that this was the worst case scenario, and most times this doesn't ever come close to happening.  But it just shows that forecasting the intensity of these tropical systems is in its infancy....or at least so it seems??? 

  

The NHC had been warning that Michael would make landfall as a major hurricane by late Monday. Its discussion Monday night also highlighted unusual behavior in the face of sheer.

If the general public were expecting anything less than a major hurricane at landfall, the general public wasn’t paying adequate attention to the NHC. The NHC had been forecasting a major hurricane to make landfall more than 36 hours in advance, which is quite good given intensity forecasting challenges.

Any complacency likely would have had more to do with skewed expectations based on the high-visibility weakening of Florence, memories of Opal's rapid weakening ahead of landfall, overconfidence due to the lack of recent major hurricanes making landfall on the Florida Panhandle, and expectations that the storm would shift course.

Here are some highlights from select NHC discussions:

Monday (10/8) 4 am CDT NHC discussion:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several passes through the system during the past few hours, and somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt. This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours...

This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall.

Monday (10/8) 4 pm CDT NHC discussion: Forecast 100 kts near landfall -- about 44 hours before landfall

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was in the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the hurricane was deepening.  The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on the final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the northeastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of land.  The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued deepening that was observed…

Although the statistical guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening…

Monday (10/8) 10 pm CDT NHC discussion: Notice that something unusual appeared to be taking place

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft this evening indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen...despite westerly vertical shear of about 20 kt, which is most unusual…

Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field, making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by 36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of 28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of the year.

Tuesday (10/9) 10 pm CDT NHC discussion: Category 4 landfall: about 14 hours prior to landfall

Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs...

 

[Ginx snewx]

5

 

[Ginx snewx]

5

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

[wxeyeNH]

I have often wondered what it would be like to be in a perfectly cleared out eye of a hurricane.  A few videos are starting to show up on Utube.  Just saw this new one.  The transition to calm sunny skies to violent 100mph+ winds must be very sharp.  In this clip watch towards the end as the eyewall sweeps in. 

 

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The NHC did very well IMO. I think you can argue that the environment (shear, mid level rh) was still something that could have negatively impacted the rate of intensification for Michael, but it just blasted through all of that with an inertially stable core. 

I definitely have a different take. I thought the intensity forecasts were flat out bad. Not sure they could have done anything different but I certainly did not expect the 3rd most powerful US landfall on record - even 24 hours out!

There's not much they could have done differently though. We suck at intensity forecasting. 

Thankfully this struck a sparsely populated area - but forecast busts with intensity matter and they certainly have the ability to kill. How many people who expected a 4 in NC from Florence and got a cat 1 won't listen next time? 

[CoastalWx]

 I have to agree with Ryan. The intensity forecast were atrocious. And it’s perfectly OK to admit that. I saw some tweets today from Marshall shepherd, which acted like it was fine to ignore the intensity forecast. Fact of the matter is, those intensity forecasts can mean the difference between life and death decisions.  Florence is another example. Although we were told to ignore the intensity, and focus on rain and surge, the intensity forecasts are also bad.  We have a lot of work to do, in this area.