wxeyeNH Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 This says it all. I have never seen a perfect clear eye making US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 It strengthened some more on the new update- 155 mph and 5 miles NW of Mexico Beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Damn, 3rd strongest land-falling hurricane in terms of mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Flying under the radar until the past 36 hours, Michael takes his seat at the table of all timers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Flying under the radar until the past 36 hours, Michael takes his seat at the table of all timers. Knabb said there is a 50/50 chance it will be upgraded to Cat 5 post analysis just like Andrew was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Flying under the radar until the past 36 hours, Michael takes his seat at the table of all timers. 917 and 174 mph after LF holy frig that’s insane .from HH Jerry might b the most impressive Meteorological phenomenon I have ever witnessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 917 and 174 mph after LF holy frig that’s insane .from HH Jerry might b the most impressive Meteorological phenomenon I have ever witnessed All timer for sure. And with all the data at our fingertips now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 The hurricane of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 917 and 174 mph after LF holy frig that’s insane .from HH Jerry might b the most impressive Meteorological phenomenon I have ever witnessed What a beast! Hope everyone down there is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: All timer for sure. And with all the data at our fingertips now. In your opinion how long would it have kept strengthening had it been over water, before an ERC occurred? 6 hours? 12 hours? It still strengthened over the marshy land at the water's edge but if it had still been over water it might have strengthened significantly more before the next ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Unbelievable. I may use this as an avatar someday lol. It almost looks like a reverse stadium effect because we are looking at it from the opposite perspective (top down instead of bottom up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 155.4 mph ... nope, not a Cat 5 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 good ole fashioned under-estimated deepening event... Like the days of lore ..Reminds me of the 1990 through 2005 era where if a TC was bound to 'cane status, it seemed mandatory that NHC estimate it's max a solid category below reality - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 47 minutes ago, weathafella said: Flying under the radar until the past 36 hours, Michael takes his seat at the table of all timers. He and Camille are brother and sister lol....only separated by 49 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 We are under a FFW now for 3-6 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: In your opinion how long would it have kept strengthening had it been over water, before an ERC occurred? 6 hours? 12 hours? It still strengthened over the marshy land at the water's edge but if it had still been over water it might have strengthened significantly more before the next ERC. Really tough to say. If we were any good at predicting those, we'd be much better at intensity forecasts. It's possible the last bit of strengthening was due to the eye consolidating mesovotices or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On land 2 hours and the eye looks just fine. Unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Really tough to say. If we were any good at predicting those, we'd be much better at intensity forecasts. It's possible the last bit of strengthening was due to the eye consolidating mesovotices or something along those lines. I remember that was written about Andrew in its post analysis too and upgrade to Cat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We are under a FFW now for 3-6 inches of rain Wow that changed from nothing of consequence, to quite a lot of rain all of a sudden??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember that was written about Andrew in its post analysis too and upgrade to Cat 5 It was a wave number 5 and that gradually reduced to 2 or 3 near landfall, so it was consolidating. It ended up pretty darn symmteric at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It was a wave number 5 and that gradually reduced to 2 or 3 near landfall, so it was consolidating. It ended up pretty darn symmteric at landfall. It also looked like the eye was contracting at landfall, though that could also be friction with land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Really afraid for those north of I 10now, lots of low income houses and super high winds still going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Final call. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/10/hurricane-michael-poised-for-mid-week.html My worst tropical effort ever, intensity wise. Great call, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Never understand why folks always try to weaken and downplay these Beasts. This never had a shot to weaken Actually, the opposite is the case. This system is in the vast minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Actually, the opposite is the case. This system is in the vast minority. This will probably/hopefully be upgraded to Cat 5 like Andrew was.....this is like a snowstorm being predicted to drop a foot of snow, dropping 3 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 8 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would not be shocked if Ray's 110 mph landfall forecast verifies. I would also not be shocked at 145mph readings. This has been rather unpredicateble as far as intensity. One this will def happen is a beastly surge. Opal II indeed. I knew I was in big trouble as soon as I woke up. Its okay....I have a better idea of what to look for with regard to requisite antecedent conditions to sustain such strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ray and I were discussing this the other night... Personally, over the decades of experience I've had, the statistic bearing out a tendency for weakening as these GOM storms approach the coast, I mainatain, appeals to be more of a geo-morphological coincidence based upon intensity timing/schemes with the geography of that region more so than anything else. In simple terms, it's "where" they bomb that is paramount - Storms tend to move over the so -called "loop current" but... just the shape of the GOM is such that a storm's get free and clear of disruptive influence in that triangulum where Camille, and Micheal, Opal... Katrina all passed through, and at that time they enter the most favorable total kinematic support of deepening... That's "in the means" ... That just means that odds are, they have already achieved their greatest intensity the day before they approach the coast. Purely a numbers game... But it doesn't inherently limit a storms ability to go berserk closer to land-fall either. Yea, this event def. lends credence to this....the less than pristine atmosphere over the GOM retarded development enough to prevent an ERC before LF. That said, I def. do think there is something to continental dry air/mid level interaction providing some impetus for weakening. I think its a combo of both theories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 so much bickering about wind speeds in the other thread...doesn't everyone know max winds in any hurricane are likely to be extremely localized monster of a storm regardless....something that will be in the news for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: so much bickering about wind speeds in the other thread...doesn't everyone know max winds in any hurricane are likely to be extremely localized monster of a storm regardless....something that will be in the news for days Yeah. It is rather annoying. Unless the eyeball passes over multiple ASOS, what would you expect. Beefy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Actually, the opposite is the case. This system is in the vast minority. You should have known better honestly . Never try to portray cockiness and confidence in hurricanes. Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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