ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Recon found a pressure of 937mb.. strongest october hurricane ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Recon found a pressure of 937mb.. strongest october hurricane ever? Wilma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Recon found a pressure of 937mb.. strongest october hurricane ever? Make that 931. Jebus. Thing is bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 931 holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Camille redux...further east!! What a Monster..and strengthening still.... saturday they were talking a minimal cat 1 perhaps....amazing how these intensity forecasts are just so difficult to forecast 3 -4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/09/shades-opal-heres-how-hurricane-michael-compares-devastating-storm/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d7bc0d92e645 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Camille redux...further east!! What a Monster..and strengthening still.... saturday they were talking a minimal cat 1 perhaps....amazing how these intensity forecasts are just so difficult to forecast 3 -4 days out. Not even close....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not even close....lol. I don’t agree Jerry at all, this is a beast 144 mph on velociity scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I don’t agree Jerry at all, this is a beast 144 mph on velociity scan Camille came ashore with 190 mph winds..just sayin. Opal is the near perfect match. Let’s hope winter follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Camille came ashore with 190 mph winds..just sayin. Opal is the near perfect match. Let’s hope winter follows suit. 190 mph gusts estimated by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Those were gusts Jerry...this will have gusts of 180 most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Pressure down again..winds up again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 You can tell some of the people reporting on the weather channel are nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I would not be shocked if Ray's 110 mph landfall forecast verifies. I would also not be shocked at 145mph readings. This has been rather unpredicateble as far as intensity. One this will def happen is a beastly surge. Opal II indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Lightning picking up around the center also looking even better this will be a 5 soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lightning picking up around the center also looking even better this will be a 5 soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I am relatively familiar with area of projected landfall being originally from SW Georgia and travelling down to the area to visit the beaches quite a bit over the years. In terms of impact on population centers, there aren't many better places that this could hit. The area is called the Forgotten Coast for a reason. East of Panama City and around the Big Bend is relatively undeveloped compared with the areas farther from Panama City west to the AL line. There aren't any of the large, ocean-front towers that you see in that area. Between the coast and I-10 there are hundreds of thousands of acres of national and state forest land and miles and miles of pine forest. This isn't meant to minimize the strength of this storm or the impact it will have on the people who do live in the area but all things considered, it would be worse if it were to landfall further west. Further inland in the Tallahassee area is a bit of a different story but there obviously isn't a surge worry. I would imagine their main worry will be wind damage to the large trees and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 That's a palpable macabre in here where people "want" this to be a category 5 ordeal - Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lightning picking up around the center also looking even better this will be a 5 soon!! The 1 min imagery is showing that intense convection has wrapped back around to the northern eyewall, making the core very symmetric now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Maybe it’ll be a cat 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe it’ll be a cat 6? Seriously though, there are no hints of weakening at the moment and probably a fair chance at attaining Category 5 before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Metfan is still hoping it magically phases with the trough after LF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Seriously though, there are no hints of weakening at the moment and probably a fair chance at attaining Category 5 before landfall. What’s the tide situation like? The storm surge I would think is going to be catastrophic in places. Aren’t some of those places like below sea-level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's a palpable macabre in here where people "want" this to be a category 5 ordeal - Interesting You know the drill. Weenies want "interesting" weather events...as long as it doesn't hit their house. I am hoping it impacts the lesser populated areas and that it weakens some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: What’s the tide situation like? The storm surge I would think is going to be catastrophic in places. Aren’t some of those places like below sea-level? Tide will be incoming at landfall, so overall we're lucky that water levels are low this morning/early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's a palpable macabre in here where people "want" this to be a category 5 ordeal - Interesting Really Tip?? We go through this with every powerful storm....It's the Wonder/amazement of the Meteorology of the whole thing that people like us get caught up in(nobody is wishing it to kill and wreak havoc...but it's gonna do just that whether it's a high end Cat 4 as it is now, or a 5). I mean is there really a need to even state things like that anymore. This is a weather board...people love extreme weather...especially people into the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You know the drill. Weenies want "interesting" weather events...as long as it doesn't hit their house. I am hoping it impacts the lesser populated areas and that it weakens some... I think the chances of this weakening in the next 5-6 hours before landfall, are very low. He's on an uptick as he's approaching the coast....it's full steam ahead with this one now it looks like. The amazing part is...nobody saw a High end Cat 4 coming back on Saturday....just mind boggling that everything has come together like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Tide will be incoming at landfall, so overall we're lucky that water levels are low this morning/early afternoon. Well that’s one piece of good news I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think the chances of this weakening in the next 5-6 hours before landfall, are very low. He's on an uptick as he's approaching the coast....it's full steam ahead with this one now it looks like. The amazing part is...nobody saw a High end Cat 4 coming back on Saturday....just mind boggling that everything has come together like this. That's the thing, these GoM TCs can both quickly strengthen and weaken. Definitive forecasts are a tough call there. I know there were a few people that maybe weren't forecasting Cat 4, but at least entertained the possibility. I tweeted on Monday that I thought landfall (then projected at 105 knots) was probably more likely to be + or - 15 knots. It looks like +15 was even too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's the thing, these GoM TCs can both quickly strengthen and weaken. Definitive forecasts are a tough call there. I know there were a few people that maybe weren't forecasting Cat 4, but at least entertained the possibility. I tweeted on Monday that I thought landfall (then projected at 105 knots) was probably more likely to be + or - 15 knots. It looks like +15 was even too conservative. What’s the reasons why there are so many uncertainties with intensities within the GoM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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