weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't like using the spaghetti models all that much. There are a few members I like to look at, but they seem too jumpy for my liking. I like the globals and ensembles, but only after trying to analyze the overall environment myself first. I agree that rain is the biggest potential deal here, and with parts of CT experiencing flash flooding recently, a big and quick rainmaker could be a mess. Yeah. Rain is the thing to really watch. If I were along the coast, I'd be preparing for a major. It's too simplistic to say (as some will) "Michael rapidly intensified under marginal conditions, therefore it's going to explode in the Gulf". I was making this point in another thread yesterday...we have to watch for how shear impacts Michael in the Gulf. We've had storms this season where the globals missed very subtle pockets of shear that had significant impacts on the inner core of storms. We could see that here too. Not only would shear keep Michael's intensification, which seems to have leveled off at the moment, in check, it would also potentially allow dry air intrusions to disrupt the core. We've seen situations before where a system is organized enough where it is effectively able to keep lurking dry air at bay. The thing about this scenario is that you don't yet have a fully "mature" cyclone with a strong and well established core/outflow structure. That, and the usual trough interaction/interaction with the northern Gulf Coast are all potential inhibiting factors. That said, I'm not sure you completely disregard the guidance which shows continued significant deepening. Should this become a very strong and well organized system as it moves north I think that favors a major landfall. Intensity forecasting (as you know) is awfully difficult. Excellent post! Very well stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Legit possibility if it phases with the trough Metfan did write this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Excellent post! Very well stated I'll take the under on LF intensity...regardless of how intensely it peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take the under on LF intensity...regardless of how intensely it peaks. You can already envision the classic northern GoM landfall with half an eyewall and even less of a CDO sloshing ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: You can already envision the classic northern GoM landfall with half an eyewall and even less of a CDO sloshing ashore. Why ...? completely random imagination here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Why ...? completely random imagination here - It's tradition. You think of the Gulf as the deep tropics and expect a tidy landfall, but the stretch from NOLA to Panama City is poleward of 30N, which means ET influences are often well underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's tradition. You think of the Gulf as the deep tropics and expect a tidy landfall, but the stretch from NOLA to Panama City is poleward of 30N, which means ET influences are often well underway. Mm... it's more an artifact of intensification timing... When TC's pass over the heat content, provided the deeper layer mechanics support strengthening, they'll tend to do so rapidly (whether that means official "RI" or not, notwithstanding...). Extra tropical transition is not that common to those latitudes and the phase diagrams for land falling storms don't really reflect that taking place. Then, nearing the coast they are entering replacement issues and so forth - in other words, it's more a geophysical coincidence based on that region's physicality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... it's more an artifact of intensification timing... When TC's pass over the heat content, provided the deeper layer mechanics support strengthening, they'll tend to do so rapidly (whether that means official "RI" or not, notwithstanding...). Extra tropical transition is not that common to those latitudes and the phase diagrams for land falling storms don't really reflect that taking place. Then, nearing the coast they are entering replacement issues and so forth - in other words, it's more a geophysical coincidence based on that region's physicality. Okay. Wait and see. I will bump this. Trough interaction with a late season n GOM cane? Open-shut imo. Not saying it won't be a formidable storm....but if it peaks at say, 130mph....it will come in at like 100mph. Its not just ERC dependent....which it will undoubtedly encounter, as well. I can see the 4 hour debates now on the exact cause of weakening....as everyone will find a way to save face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay. Wait and see. I will bump this. Trough interaction with a late season n GOM cane? Open-shut imo. Not saying it won't be a formidable storm....but if it peaks at say, 130mph....it will come in at like 100mph. Its not just ERC dependent....which it will undoubtedly encounter, as well. I can see the 4 hour debates now on the exact cause of weakening....as everyone will find a way to save face. Yeah I don't believe so... the trough that is presently approaching (~) west Texas, never really interacts ...most of it's speed momentum/height falls bipasses ...leaving the flow flat with no height falls interacting with this thing.. What it is doing is contacting and moving along with the westerlies, ...once it has cleared moving inland and continues to do so over land... Ironically, the Euro does flirt with transition as it races then between CC and Bermuda somewhere. "Saving face" is beside the point for me... I happen to have read papers about hurricanes depending near the loop in the Gulf and it's not a huge theoretical leap to see how normal timing of intensity profiles within a day of an RI simply parlays favorably to TCs not happening to be at their greatest intensity the next day as they approach land. Charlie never weakend ...course it was on the Gulf/interior side of Florida...still, that one passed near the loop and bombed as it was coming ashore because it was geographically closer to that region where pulsed stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I don't believe so... the trough that is presently approaching (~) west Texas, never really interacts ...it bipasses ...leaving the flow flat with no height falls interacting with this thing.. What it is doing is contacting and moving along with the westerlies, ...once it has cleared moving inland and continues to do so over land... Ironically, the Euro does flirt with transition as it races then between CC and Bermuda somewhere. "Saving face" is beside the point for me... I happen to have read papers about hurricanes depending near the loop in the Gulf and it's not a huge theoretical leap to see how normal timing of intensity profiles within a day of an RI simply parlays favorably to TCs not happening to be at their greatest intensity the next day as they approach land. Charlie never weekend ...course it was on the Gulf/interior side of Florida...still, that one passed near the loop and bombed as it was coming ashore because it was geographically closer to that region where pulsed stronger. I don't mean anyone specifically....just the general banter. This is what I mean...yes, this is true, which is why I said that people will debate for pages the precise cause of weakening. Regardless of whether or not its modeled or not, there will be some vestige of dry air and/or shear that will augment weakening induced by natural, internal processes. Just my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 check out that beastly loop current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't mean anyone specifically....just the general banter. This is what I mean...yes, this is true, which is why I said that people will debate for pages the precise cause of weakening. Regardless of whether or not its modeled or not, there will be some vestige of dry air and/or shear that will augment weakening induced by natural, internal processes. Just my take. Agreed... and my only horse in that race is that I'd rather folks don't figure for less intensity, automatically, like we do everywhere else in our entitled attitudes about reality in western cultures (haha).. .but doing so, merely because more seem to behave that way than don't - I guess... It's a Darwin award to lower one's guard but we know that. I tell you... I recall the day after Charlie ... I think it was Charlie... did that slight right jog on the west side of Florida as it was deepening into Cat 4 territory, and these idiots at a club diner were ticked off at the weather service because the storm didn't hit all of 20 or 30 miles further up the coast - ... it was mind boggling, the temerity of these aholes. I mean seriously ..it was like, "the weather never get's it right" in a frothy anger. So the roof peels off while they were elbows deep in egg yokes and toast and I'm like ....what the F were you doing out at a diner on that day at all - ... man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You've had some good intensity forecasts for recent tropical systems. I'm still torn. Yesterday I thought the ceiling was low end cat 2 but that was before we saw the organization that took place yesterday. I'm definitely wary of the amount of dry air lurking and the potential for shear impacting the organization as it approaches the coast, and I like to look at what limits potential rather than what favors it in a forecast, but I also think an organized core here could make this more resilient to less favorable environmental conditions, especially with accelerating forward speed. If I had to guess right now...I'd probably go higher than you but not dramatically. I know entirely Rays theory on gulf systems but think this one breaks the mold. I don’t see dry air as an issue. This has been the summer of extraordinary PWATs. Could be a major 955- 960 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Agreed... and my only horse in that race is that I'd rather folks don't figure for less intensity, automatically, like we do everywhere else in our entitled attitudes about reality in western cultures (haha).. .but doing so, merely because more seem to behave that way than don't - I guess... It's a Darwin award to lower one's guard but we know that. I tell you... I recall the day after Charlie ... I think it was Charlie... did that slight right jog on the west side of Florida as it was deepening into Cat 4 territory, and these idiots at a club diner were ticked off at the weather service because the storm didn't hit all of 20 or 30 miles further up the coast - ... it was mind boggling, the temerity of these aholes. I mean seriously ..it was like, "the weather never get's it right" in a frothy anger. So the roof peels off while they were elbows deep in egg yokes and toast and I'm like ....what the F were you doing out at a diner on that day at all - ... man. Maybe you and Steve will be right...anyway, I expect a solid cat 2 landfall...which is nothing to take lightly. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/10/hurricane-michael-poised-for-mid-week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I know entirely Rays theory on gulf systems but think this one breaks the mold. I don’t see dry air as an issue. This has been the summer of extraordinary PWATs. Could be a major 955- 960 ish 955-960 is totally reasonable. Very possible, but I hedge a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I know entirely Rays theory on gulf systems but think this one breaks the mold. I don’t see dry air as an issue. This has been the summer of extraordinary PWATs. Could be a major 955- 960 ish IDK...looking at mlvl water imagery there seems to be some decent dry air present in the Gulf and also across the SE US. You would think as a tighter circulation would try and organize it would ingest this. Not saying this won't spike up as new convection tries developing but I think if it would rapidly intensify it would just as rapidly weaken. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northamerica-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I was really close to calling for a peak of 140mph, but deleted and went with 125mph (100mph LF). Its a such a short window for RI, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was just going to respond. There's no doubt that Michael will be moisture laden, but looking at the GOES mid level imagery there's a fair amount of dry air in the areas you've highlighted. Hurricanes are monsters and one of the most destructive forces in nature, but at their core, they're really fragile systems. In terms of steering they're leaves meandering in a river, and in terms of intensity they're high end but really delicate engines. You don't need much to disrupt things. Particularly when it comes to dry air. There's already a small window for intensification. Any decent level of ingestion would likely halt intensification if not induce some level of weakening. I disagree that a tighter circulation would necessarily ingest the dry air, but I think it's a lot more likely if you get shear that kind of forces ingestion. Solid point. Speaking of shear it's still "unfavorable". Question though regarding shear. I have no clue what to look at in terms of on forecast models for wind shear. All I've done is just look at the link I attached but that's just a current snap shot and doesn't indicate how things will evolve over time. What would you look at on models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: A met can answer this much better than I can, but there are a couple of tools you can use on that site, including shear tendency and mid shear. On the guidance, particularly the GFS, I like to look at 200-850mb wind shear, and the potential vorticity products to see if PV streamers are in the area, which are not helpful in the development of TCs. I'm just learning that piece this year. One thing to be careful of though with the shear products is sometimes the outflow of storms will present itself as shear. Things are obviously under-measured too. If anyone else could add or set me straight if I've erred that'd be great. This is very helpful...thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 6 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Spinups a small threat in your hood? Always in the RFQ. EF0's spin-up/down with little or no warning GRL2 comes in mighty handy. Now with power guaranteed through-out storm duration. Can't wait till the day comes I'm sitting outside taking a dip and watching TV with 1200W of speakers blasting across the hood. Neighbors are going to love it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That seems like a good call, given how devastating the storm surge was. I've only started doing tropical chases. A lot of learning and a lot of work. Safety and not getting in the way of locals/first responders has been paramount. Would like to chase this one too but two this season is enough. It's a long drive (flying is too expensive at this point) and I don't want to be in an area where surge is a big vulnerability. Being a bit further inland may have worked. Would have been close enough to get good wind but far enough from surge. Fresh water flooding would be minimized too due to forward speed. Oh well. I could hook you up with my brother in Thomasville, GA. Straight shot down through Tallahassee to Appalachee Bay. Only a couple of hours to St. George Island. The Lowe’s that he works at is already out of generators and water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Lucky we see even any rains here. Best dynamics look to get shot well W of us and then the center of circulation shoots offshore well S of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Lucky we see even any rains here. Best dynamics look to get shot well W of us and then the center of circulation shoots offshore well S of us. It’s a non event with the main low except for a few rogue surfers off block island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Backdoor with +RA up here on the NAM and GFS. Can't wait for my 49F tropical downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 GEFS trended north a bit at 12z. Would make rain a issue if the northern half ended up being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GEFS trended north a bit at 12z. Would make rain a issue if the northern half ended up being right Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Rays gulf meh storms at LF might take a beating here. Mikey actually tightens ju#t before LF 940 to 950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Rays gulf meh storms at LF might take a beating here. Mikey actually tightens ju#t before LF 940 to 950 Yes sir...he may be a strengthening Cane coming ashore this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Rays gulf meh storms at LF might take a beating here. Mikey actually tightens ju#t before LF 940 to 950 I mean northward moving TCs in the GoM tend to weaken prior to landfall, but not always (e.g. Camille). Most of the dry air is east of Michael, not north, so it's hard to say whether the favored trend repeats itself here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 It's certainly undergoing strengthening at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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