40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 7:20 PM, Ginx snewx said: Rays gulf meh storms at LF might take a beating here. Mikey actually tightens ju#t before LF 940 to 950 Expand I don't forecast model runs, which usually are biased intense at LF in the northern GOM, I forecast actual LF intensity. 100mph could be conservative...I'll make a final call later, hopefully after Sox clinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 7:55 PM, OceanStWx said: It's certainly undergoing strengthening at the moment. Expand Yea. Probably be 120mph at 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 8:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea. Probably be 120mph at 5PM. Expand I already know the answer to that one. NHC is doing their internal conference call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Beast mode at LF. Possibly low end cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I don’t think that area of FL has ever taken a direct hit from a 3+ cane. Rare anyways. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 8:46 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t think that area of FL has ever taken a direct hit from a 3+ cane. Expand If we go since about 1940, I count 3 (Dennis 2005, Opal 1995, Eloise 1975) from Pensacola through the Big Bend region. If you are just talking Apalachicola or east to the Big Bend then there are none in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 7:55 PM, OceanStWx said: I mean northward moving TCs in the GoM tend to weaken prior to landfall, but not always (e.g. Camille). Most of the dry air is east of Michael, not north, so it's hard to say whether the favored trend repeats itself here. Expand Beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ginx snewx said: Beast Expand My feeling all along was this was an either or. Either it was going to weaken like Ray thinks, or it was going to blow past Cat 3. Satellite presentation doesn’t rule the latter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 11:46 PM, OceanStWx said: My feeling all along was this was an either or. Either it was going to weaken like Ray thinks, or it was going to blow past Cat 3. Satellite presentation doesn’t rule the latter out. Expand Surge wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Mikey getting that look now. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 12:41 AM, WxWatcher007 said: There was a pretty significant extrapolated pressure drop in between passes. Just a little over an hour. This is amazing to watch. Expand Beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 We 4 inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 The eye on IR loop over at UWisc CIMS reminds me of that scene in War ofThe Worlds when that tripod first came up from the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 This might flirt briefly with a 5. I thought even a 2 was unlikely three days ago. Much learnings I need to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 1:20 AM, Damage In Tolland said: We 4 inland Expand Cranky thinks it's a cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 2:37 AM, CT Rain said: Cranky thinks it's a cat 1. Expand Hes an idiot.. I saw that on twitter.. HWRF brings on boat load of rain up here.. other models not on board YET!! But still a couple days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 2:37 AM, CT Rain said: Cranky thinks it's a cat 1. Expand That eye is clearing out and warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 2:49 AM, OceanStWx said: That eye is clearing out and warming up. Expand I mean his posts are so absurd normally. That one really was the worst in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 2:50 AM, CT Rain said: I mean his posts are so absurd normally. That one really was the worst in a while. Expand Intensity forecasts suck to begin with, it feels like even more so in the GoM. I don’t feel comfortable making any definitive statements there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 2:26 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: This might flirt briefly with a 5. I thought even a 2 was unlikely three days ago. Much learnings I need to do... Expand I’ve become so intrigued with tropical intensity the last few months. I mean I know next to nothing but from the little I know (or guess I thought I knew) I thought it wouldn’t get this strong b/c if the dry air around and strong shear. Obviously that meant nothing. So I guess my questions to investigate would be; when does shear matter and when does dry air matter? Im just so curious as to what processes led to the incredible RI we’ve seen this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 2:57 AM, weatherwiz said: I’ve become so intrigued with tropical intensity the last few months. I mean I know next to nothing but from the little I know (or guess I thought I knew) I thought it wouldn’t get this strong b/c if the dry air around and strong shear. Obviously that meant nothing. So I guess my questions to investigate would be; when does shear matter and when does dry air matter? Im just so curious as to what processes led to the incredible RI we’ve seen this evening Expand They both matter. Dry air typically more mid levels, since updrafts would evaportively cool, downdraft, and choke off new development. But sometimes TC outflow can present as shear on model forecasts, so it’s not always cut and dry. Florence has this problem during its first RI. Shear looked unfavorable, but when you subtracted Florence out of the flow, shear was low. Almost like storm relative flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 3:10 AM, OceanStWx said: They both matter. Dry air typically more mid levels, since updrafts would evaportively cool, downdraft, and choke off new development. But sometimes TC outflow can present as shear on model forecasts, so it’s not always cut and dry. Florence has this problem during its first RI. Shear looked unfavorable, but when you subtracted Florence out of the flow, shear was low. Almost like storm relative flow. Expand This makes so much sense. I think WxWatcher007 mentioned similar about outflow from TC showing up as shear. So how would you go about doing that if you were to look at models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 3:20 AM, weatherwiz said: This makes so much sense. I think WxWatcher007 mentioned similar about outflow from TC showing up as shear. So how would you go about doing that if you were to look at models? Expand It’s not easy. I’m not aware of any model forecast you can look at. Sometimes you can find a simulation on wx twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Only a matter of time before the US got hit with a cane on the uptick. The last several threats have weakened before landfall, some surprisingly so. Perhaps Mike bucks that trend. Have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Final call. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/10/hurricane-michael-poised-for-mid-week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Ray this is going to be a lot stronger than 110 mph at landfall- more like 130 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 3:26 AM, OceanStWx said: It’s not easy. I’m not aware of any model forecast you can look at. Sometimes you can find a simulation on wx twitter. Expand gotcha. Thank you. 140 mph Just stunned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 On 10/10/2018 at 6:04 AM, LibertyBell said: Ray this is going to be a lot stronger than 110 mph at landfall- more like 130 mph Expand I give that a big ''Glad we don't live there'' scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Never understand why folks always try to weaken and downplay these Beasts. This never had a shot to weaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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