BullCityWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Lookout said: thought this tweet by ryan was noteworthy Yeah, it seems like most of if not all of south georgia is a pecan farm. this cant be good for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I work for a trucking company and we run produce primarily (corn, squash zucchini, eggplant, cabbage etc.) Just starting to ramp up down there again for us. This is absolutely the worst possible time, and it's going to hurt a lot of us in the industry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Someone fact check... But is Michael's center a little east of the 8am forecast track? Looks like it on the 1-min MESO IR loop on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 926.8mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 MICHAEL RECON DATA Dropsonde just measured incredible wind speeds aloft in the eye wall. 176 MPH around 1000 feet, 181 mph around 3000 feet. https://t.co/qSkYAcjkRJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 167mph vector around the eye. Could be a Catagory 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Yeah, it seems like most of if not all of south georgia is a pecan farm. this cant be good for that. yeah and what sticks out in my mind is how rare it is to have winds like this there...god knows how long it's been so there are going to be a lot of old trees coming down, never mind the rest. 35 minutes ago, southernskimmer said: I work for a trucking company and we run produce primarily (corn, squash zucchini, eggplant, cabbage etc.) Just starting to ramp up down there again for us. This is absolutely the worst possible time, and it's going to hurt a lot of us in the industry. sorry to hear...that sucks. 2 minutes ago, Regan said: 926.8mb insane. now close to andrew territory. 12z hrrr is showing some interesting high gusts of 55 to 60 knots over the upstate/western nc, That would be something else if it verifies. Shows 45 to 50 knots here. (and brings whats left of the eyewall through here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, Hvward said: 167mph vector around the eye. Could be a Catagory 5. Whats the beam height? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 For Florence I saw a link to a power outage forecast for NC/SC. Anyone know where that link is for the entire SE? The power outages from this is going to be catastrophic over such a large rural area, not to mention some rather large cities like PC, ATL, Columbia, Wilmington, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: yeah and what sticks out in my mind is how rare it is to have winds like this there...god knows how long it's been so there are going to be a lot of old trees coming down, never mind the rest. sorry to hear...that sucks. insane. now close to andrew territory. 12z hrrr is showing some interesting high gusts of 55 to 60 knots over the upstate/western nc, That would be something else if it verifies. Shows 45 to 50 knots here. (and brings whats left of the eyewall through here. So when I wonder will we all be warned. We are only being lead to think 15-30 maybe 45mph here in central Nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 The NAM and GFS models seem to be tracking Michael on the very western edge of the NHC forecast cone with the heaviest axes of precipitation over the western portions of NC. New NAM is rolling now. (Yes, I know the NAM is not the preferred hurricane model.) It's just an interesting observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Beam height is about 8k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: yeah and what sticks out in my mind is how rare it is to have winds like this there...god knows how long it's been so there are going to be a lot of old trees coming down, never mind the rest. sorry to hear...that sucks. insane. now close to andrew territory. 12z hrrr is showing some interesting high gusts of 55 to 60 knots over the upstate/western nc, That would be something else if it verifies. Shows 45 to 50 knots here. (and brings whats left of the eyewall through here. This really shows the western side ramping up as dry cool air works into the storm this is why the models all have the winds beefing up over SC/NC....it may be overdone some but that is wind speed in knts and show 70-80 mph winds on the west side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 This is a insane run of the HRRR which actually did really well with the winds in Matthew which was a similar transitioning system over NC.....but if you take the run till the last frame it has formed a incredible band on the west side and has 70-80 knt winds ( obviously overdone right????) in that band and drags it from CLT to RDU and I am sure as the runs get further out in time it will keep this all the way to the coast, but even if you knock 10-15 knts off those numbers it still 50-70 mph.....I wonder how much if any merit the local NWS offices will give this especially since almost all the other models have 50-80mph winds over central and eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This really shows the western side ramping up as dry cool air works into the storm this is why the models all have the winds beefing up over SC/NC....it may be overdone some but that is wind speed in knts and show 70-80 mph winds on the west side.... Well, that seals it. Gonna get the storm box out of storage...I hope we don’t see those winds. Already have trees right on top of mY house that scare me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Michael is only four MB weaker than Andrew when he came on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 9:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 Location: 29.3°N 86.1°W Moving: NNE at 13 mph Min pressure: 931 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Michael is only four MB weaker than Andrew when he came on shore. Yeah if the winds catch up to the pressure then there will be probably a 40-50 mile wide area that just gets flattened......also with the pressure falls and tightening up Mike will hold those higher winds farther inland, this is a ramping up beast raging ashore versus a former beast falling apart.....it will take time for the center to unravel unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This is a insane run of the HRRR which actually did really well with the winds in Matthew which was a similar transitioning system over NC.....but if you take the run till the last frame it has formed a incredible band on the west side and has 70-80 knt winds ( obviously overdone right????) in that band and drags it from CLT to RDU and I am sure as the runs get further out in time it will keep this all the way to the coast, but even if you knock 10-15 knts off those numbers it still 50-70 mph.....I wonder how much if any merit the local NWS offices will give this especially since almost all the other models have 50-80mph winds over central and eastern NC Zero so far. Still being told 15, 20-30s. Maybe 45. Nothing more than Flo. I’m wondering this myself. If not people could be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Michael is only four MB weaker than Andrew when he came on shore. The eye really clearing out and expanding now and i bet this makes a run at cat 5. We've seen the MB go from 943 to 931 in just the last couple hours. I really hate it for those people who stayed behind thinking this would be low end cat 3. This is a nightmare scenario thats been discussed before. A storm that RI as it hits land and goes from bad to holy hell bad just prior to landfall preventing evacs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This really shows the western side ramping up as dry cool air works into the storm this is why the models all have the winds beefing up over SC/NC....it may be overdone some but that is wind speed in knts and show 70-80 mph winds on the west side.... i know it's in knots and in general it shows 55 to 60 knots over western nc, not seeing any 70 knot gusts until it reaches eastern nc. Hard to believe it's not a bit over done though but Regardless, certainly an interesting development. 3km nam also shows 50 plus mph gusts in the upstate. Also of note, hrrr and 3km nam are showing 40 to 45 knot gusts getting close to atlanta too. Nothing earth shattering but probably a bit higher than expected there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Our local office is calling for 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph / potential for 58-73 just to cover all bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 The NAM and GFS models seem to be tracking Michael on the very western edge of the NHC forecast cone with the heaviest axes of precipitation over the western portions of NC. New NAM is rolling now. (Yes, I know the NAM is not the preferred hurricane model.) It's just an interesting observation. Getting concerned about this as well. That moisture will just funnel to WNC. This is looking more and more like Opal on steroids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, bigshaq00 said: from central NC should i worry about this, haven't been paying attention to the models at all You should have been watching since Day 1... 75% of us on this forum are about to be smacked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I think we’d best be ready for up to 40mph and 80mph in central and eastern NC. Based on TV and then on runs. I guess they have to wait and see what happens to him once he gets inland some and see how he behaves. Doesn’t give us up here a lot of time at that point to prep. I’m telling you most people aren’t taking this seriously because the tv isn’t. People are laughing at this right now. Flo wasn’t a biggie for them and they think is nothing because it’s in the gulf as opposed to on our coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, Lookout said: i know it's in knots and in general it shows 55 to 60 knots over western nc, not seeing any 70 knot gusts until it reaches eastern nc. Hard to believe it's not a bit over done though but Regardless, certainly an interesting development. 3km nam also shows 50 plus mph gusts in the upstate. Also of note, hrrr and 3km nam are showing 40 to 45 knot gusts getting close to atlanta too. Nothing earth shattering but probably a bit higher than expected there. That’s scary, because our highest gust in Florence was only 31 mph, and only got an inch of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Calm down folks. I don't want to underplay this for anyone in NC given the remaining damage from Flo, but generally speaking, a few inches of rain (localized, short term flooding) and some thunderstorm type gusts (localized damage where the gust occurred) usually don't cause mass notifications from the TV mets. You get the usual alerts (which are already out from the NWS) and some updates on the half hours. Power outages across the state are the most likely outcome here. Beyond that, I say let's take a step back from the doom and gloom here in NC. Leave that for the immediate coastline and 50-75 miles inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Calm down folks. I don't want to underplay this for anyone in NC given the remaining damage from Flo, but generally speaking, a few inches of rain (localized, short term flooding) and some thunderstorm type gusts (localized damage where the gust occurred) usually don't cause mass notifications from the TV mets. You get the usual alerts (which are already out from the NWS) and some updates on the half hours. Power outages across the state are the most likely outcome here. Beyond that, I say let's take a step back from the doom and gloom here in NC. Leave that for the immediate coastline and 50-75 miles inland. This is different than most storms for two reasons. The forward speed once inland and the fact that the worst of this storm could be on the NW side versus the typical east side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: This is different than most storms for two reasons. The forward speed once inland and the fact that the worst of this storm could be on the NW side versus the typical east side. Agreed and understand. However, across central NC we usually see 25-35mph gusts from significant tropical systems that pass thru. So we get, 35-50 this time, big deal. It's still thunderstorm type activity which can lead to downed trees and power lines. That's really my point. The mets aren't going to freak out over conditions that could come from a spring frontal passage, a summer storm, or a decaying tropical system. Regardless, be prepared! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Agreed and understand. However, across central NC we usually see 25-35mph gusts from significant tropical systems that pass thru. So we get, 35-50 this time, big deal. It's still thunderstorm type activity which can lead to downed trees and power lines. That's really my point. The mets aren't going to freak out over conditions that could come from a spring frontal passage, a summer storm, or a decaying tropical system. Regardless, be prepared! Spot on. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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