frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Very possible. There will be some wicked video from this storm. Daytime landfalls are awesome for documenting. I havn't looked,where are you in this mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: It is never too late... Ask Florence Look at the radar loop posted by LithiaWx... It is already turning Still appears due north to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, frazdaddy said: I havn't looked,where are you in this mess? Ah safe and sound well north. Thank you. I had planned on going down to south GA but this has gotten out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Ah safe and sound well north. Thank you. I had planned on going down to south GA but this has gotten out of hand. Yeah, Scotts post got my attention. I'm off for the next two days and was briefly entertaining the thought of a road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: It is never too late... Ask Florence Look at the radar loop posted by LithiaWx... It is already turning Completely different storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Yeah, Scotts post got my attention. I'm off for the next two days and was briefly entertaining the thought of a road trip. Michael has gone beast mode. It’s truly amazing to me that we still lack the ability to predict hurricane intensity even a day or two out. I looked back at the previous forecasts of a low end cat 1 hitting. My have we come a long way from that in such a short amount of time. I guess the lesson we can learn is never underestimate the fuel that GOM bathwater can provide to a storm. Michael had some things going against it like shear and asymmetrical lopsided presentation and he has just continued a steady March towards where he is now. Just amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Well that escalated quickly. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Michael has gone beast mode. It’s truly amazing to me that we still lack the ability to predict hurricane intensity even a day or two out. I looked back at the previous forecasts of a low end cat 1 hitting. My have we come a long way from that in such a short amount of time. I guess the lesson we can learn is never underestimate the fuel that GOM bathwater can provide to a storm. Michael had some things going against it like shear and asymmetrical lopsided presentation and he has just continued a steady March towards where he is now. Just amazing. We might just see history made here. I watched recon most of the night. Those guys are hero's in my book. They got the crap beat out of them last night and just kept going back in. There's a reason they stayed at it. I think we are about to witness the reason. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 NAM 3k showing good west side enhancement as the storm goes extra tropical, it drags that band of heavier wind all the way offshore......its probably overdone a bit but not by much.......should see more aggressive wind forecast for NC as all models have anywhere from 50-80 mph winds widespread over the eastern half of the state.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Michael has gone beast mode. It’s truly amazing to me that we still lack the ability to predict hurricane intensity even a day or two out. I looked back at the previous forecasts of a low end cat 1 hitting. My have we come a long way from that in such a short amount of time. I guess the lesson we can learn is never underestimate the fuel that GOM bathwater can provide to a storm. Michael had some things going against it like shear and asymmetrical lopsided presentation and he has just continued a steady March towards where he is now. Just amazing. It makes me wonder how many Cat4/5 there have really been over the last 7-8 decades, back before we had good sat images and aircraft there could have been dozens or hundreds of storms who true peak in strength is not known. In the end this unfortunately looks like Michael's name is going to end up on that short list of monsters that have hit, Andrew, Camille, Hugo, etc.... Euro still has it kicking ass in GA this could be a massive hit for places that might not be expecting it... Euro also shows widespread gust into the 60-70 range well into NC again the power outages will reach into the millions if this Euro run is right.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Not off to a good start here from this pre storm rain. Tropical downpours here this morning led to a lot of accidents on US 221. A good 8 mile chunk of the road in the county is shutdown due to multiple accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 If it continues northeastward like that in the following few hours we could be looking at bridge closures in Charleston. Wouldn't surprise me if the big one in Savannah is shut down for a while as well. SCE&G or whoever serves the area between here and Columbia will be very busy later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: No doubt at some widespread TS winds inland. I was just referring to that 10-20 miles wide area that will contain the hurricane force winds far inland. I remember opal was fierce but I distinctly remember ending up in what was left of the eye wall. It was horrible even here in west Atlanta. Anyone who gets in there with Michael is going to really feel the wrath even well inland. IMO Opal made for a long night in Asheville. I have family in Raleigh so hoping it doesn't get too bad there but hate to see what it is going to do to the Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: If it continues northeastward like that in the following few hours we could be looking at bridge closures in Charleston. Wouldn't surprise me if the big one in Savannah is shut down for a while as well. SCE&G or whoever serves the area between here and Columbia will be very busy later this week. I’m seeing due north movement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m seeing due north movement. Look at the recon eye points... NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m seeing due north movement. I was referring to the model downeastnc posted, I should've quoted him. Looks like the worst of it would pass through my back yard around midday tomorrow and I'm in for a show either way. There are some huge trees on the perimeter of KCHS to watch from a window near my desk, or some 85' pines in adjacent yards if I'm at home. The road from the airport to 526 would likely be impassable if things start to get interesting. edit: I've also been seeing what Orangeburgwx noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I'm thinking they are too quick on the intensity drop... It is going to stay a hurricane longer than they have forecasted imo, stadium effect looks to be starting in the eyewall so we might be on the way to Cat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 This is the most impressive I've seen the satellite imagery. Not good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 19 minutes ago, downeastnc said: NAM 3k showing good west side enhancement as the storm goes extra tropical, it drags that band of heavier wind all the way offshore......its probably overdone a bit but not by much.......should see more aggressive wind forecast for NC as all models have anywhere from 50-80 mph winds widespread over the eastern half of the state.... 3km nam is even a bit worrisome here with the nw eyewall located right over me for a few runs now. Considering how strong it is, It seems a given now, short of a sudden right turn, that i should get some good gusts here. I'm happy to see FFC decided to extend the tropical storm warnings to athens/here. As bad as it will be at the coast, i think the damage across south/central georgia to trees is going to be scary extensive. A lot of folks are going to be without power for quite a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I'm thinking they are too quick on the intensity drop... It is going to stay a hurricane longer than they have forecasted imo, stadium effect looks to be starting in the eyewall so we might be on the way to Cat. 5 If we were going to get a 4th category 5 landfall I'd put it in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Not off to a good start here from this pre storm rain. Tropical downpours here this morning led to a lot of accidents on US 221. A good 8 mile chunk of the road in the county is shutdown due to multiple accidents. Unbelievable that the escarpment is looking to get flooded again; IIRC a little over a week ago the last flooding occurred. I guess the only bright spot is fall sets in after this which should bring some welcome NW winds and allow the escarpment to finally start drying out but between now and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, downeastnc said: It makes me wonder how many Cat4/5 there have really been over the last 7-8 decades, back before we had good sat images and aircraft there could have been dozens or hundreds of storms who true peak in strength is not known. In the end this unfortunately looks like Michael's name is going to end up on that short list of monsters that have hit, Andrew, Camille, Hugo, etc.... Euro still has it kicking ass in GA this could be a massive hit for places that might not be expecting it... Euro also shows widespread gust into the 60-70 range well into NC again the power outages will reach into the millions if this Euro run is right.... This time may be different, but the Euro grossly overestimated the winds over the Piedmont of NC. I think some TS winds are possible, but I wouldn’t take the euro wind forecast at face value. TW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: This time may be different, but the Euro grossly overestimated the winds over the Piedmont of NC. I think some TS winds are possible, but I wouldn’t take the euro wind forecast at face value. TW Its not just EURO. NAM, UK, CMC, even GFS all show 60mph gusts or higher. Not to mention that Michael's current pressure is 15-20mb lower than any of those models. While that will not fully translate up to NC it could very easily be stronger than the models currently have it over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Its not just EURO. NAM, UK, CMC, even GFS all show 60mph gusts or higher. Not to mention that Michael's current pressure is 15-20mb lower than any of those models. While that will not fully translate up to NC it could very easily be stronger than the models currently have it over NC. I'm going to get hammered... Keep in mind I live in the southern CSRA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I'm going to get hammered... Keep in mind I live in the southern CSRA Winds could easily be even higher for you. My wind speeds were for NC. 70-80mph gusts seem possible for you. This is not our traditional hurricane. It is not JUST speed either. The frontal enhancement as well as the intial stages of a change to cold core will make the system more efficient at bringing winds down to the surface. Most models are now really picking up on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 To get the hurricane/winter storm box out of storage again or not....amazingly, didn’t lose power for Flo. Waiting for that turn NE I guess. in Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: If we were going to get a 4th category 5 landfall I'd put it in the gulf. I thought only Camille and Andrew were Cat 5s at landfall? Are we including Maria last year for Puerto Rico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought only Camille and Andrew were Cat 5s at landfall? Are we including Maria last year for Puerto Rico? I was counting the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 as the 3rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I thought only Camille and Andrew were Cat 5s at landfall? Are we including Maria last year for Puerto Rico? Camille, Andrew, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane (Cat. 5 landfall in the Florida Keys) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 thought this tweet by ryan was noteworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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