Dunkman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 124kt (150mph) winds found by the aircraft at flight level... Is this b**** going to go Cat 5? Oh they've found 130 knots in the last half hour. Classic rapid intensification going on tonight. Best hope now I guess is that it peaks and begins to weaken before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 124kt (150mph) winds found by the aircraft at flight level... Is this b**** going to go Cat 5? Certainly looks like a high end Cat 3/Cat 4 Looks like they’re rolling with 125mph and 950mb for now. Surprised there isn’t more chatter in here. Not often you’ve got a strengthening major about to hit the FL Panhandle. Going to be a long couple of days. Stay safe everybody! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Would be interesting if they don't close our office for this in Charlotte, given that they did for 2 days for Florence (Meck co. schools were closed so many parents would be home anyways). My walk home on Thursday would be miserable. Of course wouldn't want to trade with the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Too early to tell but I'm wondering about the bridges here in Charleston since they close when the wind is high. That will effectively cut me off from work if that ends up happening. I was planning on avoiding the flight line later this week anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I have the feeling that this storm is not going to shift east as quickly as forecasted... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I was just thinking the same thing... don’t see it turning quite as hard as projected... either way this storm is a monster and nothing to be taken lightly... I think inland winds will be much more of an issue even into the Carolinas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherlover said: I was just thinking the same thing... don’t see it turning quite as hard as projected... either way this storm is a monster and nothing to be taken lightly... I think inland winds will be much more of an issue even into the Carolinas Exactly, I have a hard time believing that areas of east Alabama like Auburn/Opelika and parts of west central Georgia like Metro Atlanta are going avoid unscathed by this system. It's westward bend is indicative of a likely shift further west than being forecasted by the models. I'm here in Atlanta and feel like we are going to experience 39+ mph winds gusts for an extended period in the next 36 hours and we are not prepared again for this. I feel like this is the surprise nobody is expecting from this system is a shift to the west when it makes landfall. This thing reminds me too much of Opal, all the way down to its track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 it is right on track, atlanta is not going to see 40mph+ gusts over an extended period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 HRRR has 65kts gusts (74mph)pushing into SC at hour 36.Has 80kts(92mph)in S. central GA at hour 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 So this is my new point and click forecast from MHX....I was like whhhhhaaaaattttt....thats different. Thursday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 84. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible Thursday Night Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 22 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: HRRR has 65kts gusts (74mph)pushing into SC at hour 36.Has 80kts(92mph)in S. central GA at hour 28. This storm is going to knock out power to so many people....millions will be without power by the time it gets off NC coast....the HRRR did excellent with Flo and Matthew as far as winds go.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 29 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: it is right on track, atlanta is not going to see 40mph+ gusts over an extended period. Yeah the model agreement is locked in for sure......this thing is gonna nail the NHC track +- 50 miles all the way through its trip across the US.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 They seem really sold on the idea of strengthening over land as it leaves NC. What would be responsible for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 From the NHC 11pm discussion. Wild: Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, wake4est said: They seem really sold on the idea of strengthening over land as it leaves NC. What would be responsible for that? After it moves through eastern NC it moves back out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, wake4est said: They seem really sold on the idea of strengthening over land as it leaves NC. What would be responsible for that? Brown ocean effect, I'm assuming along with trough interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 We are all in for a long two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 How many times have we had a panhandle landfall maintain Tropical Storm status as it exits off the NC coast (which right now is around Corolla)? The only way that can happen is when a cyclone is truckin' fast (which is exactly what it's forecast to do). Shoot, this thing is currently forecast to maintain tropical system status across 4 states. It would only take a slight shift west for it to exit off the VA coast. (might as well go for 5 states....right?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Looking pretty strong this morning. Looks like it might strengthen some more, too. I’m curious if it might sneak up to Cat 4 by landfall. This looks to be a historic storm. I don’t believe a storm of this caliber has hit this part of the panhandle in many decades, maybe longer. That will be three hurricanes/strong tropical storms since I’ve moved to Tallahassee. For a place that I was under the impression didn’t get many hurricanes (and it had been over 30 years sincerely one hit before Hermine in 2016), they sure seem to be pretty common all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Looking pretty strong this morning. Looks like it might strengthen some more, too. I’m curious if it might sneak up to Cat 4 by landfall. This looks to be a historic storm. I don’t believe a storm of this caliber has hit this part of the panhandle in many decades, maybe longer. That will be three hurricanes/strong tropical storms since I’ve moved to Tallahassee. For a place that I was under the impression didn’t get many hurricanes (and it had been over 30 years sincerely one hit before Hermine in 2016), they sure seem to be pretty common all of the sudden. Look at the topical tidbits recon... They are doing eyewall laps and finding it is still strengthening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kebatusa Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 hour ago, wake4est said: They seem really sold on the idea of strengthening over land as it leaves NC. What would be responsible for that? I remember way back when, the remnants of Hurricane Andrew after hitting Louisiana doing the same thing over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I'm out of town right now, so it's going to be crazy to know I Ieft with partly cloudy skies on Monday and will return with partly cloudy skies on Friday given this is coming through in between, although the worst still looks to past just to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Damn... Looks to still be intensifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Don't often see this wording. From NWS TALLAHASSEE: Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 14...RESENT National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018 1257 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA **UNPRECEDENTED EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND** 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 CDO is cooling rapidly again. Wouldn't be surprised if we don't already have a Cat 4 storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 States of Emergency Issued Brunswick & Pender Counties.. Voluntary Evacuation Orders Issued for Low-Laying areas in Pender County.. state of emergency will go into effect at 8 a.m. Thursday. The Town of Burgaw in Pender County declared a state of emergency effective at noon Tuesday. “We urge our residents to secure tarps on their rooftops,” said Tom Collins, Pender County Emergency manager. “Secure lawn furniture and items that could become flying debris.” Collins warned residents whose homes were damaged in Hurricane Florence to be mindful of weakened structures. “When the ground is this saturated, trees fall. Power lines are taken down,” Collins said. “If you are sheltering in place, prepare for periods of being without power. Stock up on fresh water and refresh your emergency kits.” Tropical Storm Watch Coastal Pender Coastal Brunswick Robeson County Columbus County Bladen County New Hanover County Onslow County Duplin County Flash Flood Watch Bladen Inland Brunswick Inland Georgetown Columbus Coastal Horry Darlington Coastal Pender Williamsburg Coastal Georgetown Marlboro Dillon Northern Horry Inland New Hanover Robeson Coastal Brunswick Central Horry Marion Coastal New Hanover Inland Pender Florence Full list of *CURRENT* Weather Related alerts at link http://www.wect.com/weatheralerts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Eye is slowly contracting. An hour ago it was about 25 miles across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 We've got a Cat 4 as of the latest update. 130 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Euro has nasty winds for Eastern NC. This will end up much worse than Florence wind wise. I'm gasing up this morning bf the soccer moms figure things out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 57 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Euro has nasty winds for Eastern NC. This will end up much worse than Florence wind wise. I'm gasing up this morning bf the soccer moms figure things out. GFS and 3k NAM have a decent swing west. 3k NAM brings the center thru CLT, while the GFS has it going thru Anson County NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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