Hurricane Michael

[pdw]

44 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Winds up to 85mph at the 8PM update. Michael continues to organize this evening. 

 

Yep watching closely here in Macon as well. Last year, Irma brought wind gusts in the 50-55mph range and brought quite a few trees down in residential areas. Looks like this could rival or maybe even surpass that depending on the track. Definitely going to be an interesting few days.

That is what I am afraid of this time too.  I will be keeping a close eye on all the updates on this site.  I do not understand half of what you guys post but this site is my "go to" to find out the real deal about these storms.  Thanks for all the info!

Pam

[Shack]

17 minutes ago, pdw said:

I actually live in Lizella but it is easier just telling people Macon, GA since most people have heard of it.  We learned our lesson with Irma and bought a whole house generator earlier this year so will have power.  We lost power for about 5 or 6 days last year.  Thank you for the information. I believe in preparing for the worst and hoping for the best!

Lizella?  Me too.  South shore of Lake Tobo.

Back on topic, the 0z NAM(yeah I know)makes landfall around St.George Island and takes it 75 miles south of Macon and a little weaker(inland) than the 18z GFS.

[Orangeburgwx]

0z GFS and FV3 both ticked slower and a hair Eastward... But stronger storm at landfall

[frazdaddy]

[Solak]

Cat 2

7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 24.5°N 86.1°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
 

[FallsLake]

NWS briefing for central NC (6am):

https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

 

 

[Lookout]

15 hours ago, pdw said:

I currently live around Macon, GA, should we be worried about anything besides a little wind and some heavy rain?

i would expect the possibility of power outages  in or near macon for sure, depending on the exact track. It seems a given now to see  high end tropical storm force gusts with a shot of hurricane force gusts if not in macon, very near by to the south.  wrf/hmon  have consistently shown macon going through what's left of the northeast/north eyewall.   

 

edit to add, i'm a bit puzzled why they don't have the tropical storm force watches further north. It's interesting that where they have the watches they are for winds of "20/25 knots with gusts to 40/45 knots). So if they are basing it on gusts over tropical storm force and not sustained winds,  then watches should be issued for areas further north...at least to macon to augusta. even the furthest south euro is showing gusts into the 40s to near 50mph  for macon. 

[dan11295]

Looking at the landfall history in the Panama City/Apalachicola area. That immediate area hasn't taken a direct hit from a major hurricane in over 40 years (Eloise 1975).

Opal 1995 - further west

Elena 1985 - Stayed offshore of the area

 

[pdw]

1 hour ago, Lookout said:

i would expect the possibility of power outages  in or near macon for sure, depending on the exact track. It seems a given now to see  high end tropical storm force gusts with a shot of hurricane force gusts if not in macon, very near by to the south.  wrf/hmon  have consistently shown macon going through what's left of the northeast/north eyewall.   

 

edit to add, i'm a bit puzzled why they don't have the tropical storm force watches further north. It's interesting that where they have the watches they are for winds of "20/25 knots with gusts to 40/45 knots). So if they are basing it on gusts over tropical storm force and not sustained winds,  then watches should be issued for areas further north...at least to macon to augusta. even the furthest south euro is showing gusts into the 40s to near 50mph  for macon. 

Thank you for the information.  I am going to assume we will be getting pretty high winds and will be preparing for that. We already have a whole home generator so hopefully we will be okay regarding power.  Thank you for the information.  This is absolutely the most informative site regarding weather. Thank you to everyone that shares your knowledge to all of us that are less educated about weather.

 

 

[Orangeburgwx]

Suites and the NHC track shifted south in South Carolina by 50 miles... Went from North of Columbia to about 15miles outside Orangeburg

[gtg947h]

I'm trying to figure out the best time to leave for Atlanta; we were planning to leave Savannah early Thursday afternoon to go visit family up there, but I'm not sure if we want to try to be driving right across the track just after the storm passes.  I'm thinking the roads might be a mess...

[Ser Pounce]

I'd say today, might as well get ready to go now. This one's a quick mover.

[FallsLake]

I like this image of the 12z 3K NAM. It has the storm center just south of RDU at hour 60, with the low dew points being pulled in. Going from tropical to extra-tropical. 

 

[downeastnc]

I imagine there will be TS watches/warnings along the coast and sounds but I wonder if MHX/ILM/RAH are going to go with inland tropical storm warnings or maybe just regular wind products.....

[lj0109]

9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I imagine there will be TS watches/warnings along the coast and sounds but I wonder if MHX/ILM/RAH are going to go with inland tropical storm warnings or maybe just regular wind products.....

I wouldn't be surprised if ILM went with a few inland Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings especially around the SC/NC border.  CAE just issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the eastern tier of its CWA as of 11AM. 

[Cold Rain]

14 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I imagine there will be TS watches/warnings along the coast and sounds but I wonder if MHX/ILM/RAH are going to go with inland tropical storm warnings or maybe just regular wind products.....

RAH seems to be downplaying the wind threat here.  Gustier farther SE.

[Ser Pounce]

Lots of counties in the Charleston area have TS Watches up, but the center will most likely pass to our west.

[Lookout]

10 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if ILM went with a few inland Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings especially around the SC/NC border.  CAE just issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the eastern tier of its CWA as of 11AM. 

hopefully ffc catches up by this afternoon. fwiw, the icon, 3km nam, and rgem have come north a bit on the 12z run. 

eye becoming rather apparent now on satellite. I'd be a little surprised if it doesn't make cat 4 at this rate. 

[GunBlade]

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

RAH seems to be downplaying the wind threat here.  Gustier farther SE.

Based on the track there probably will be little wind.  Even with Florence, as soon as we were no longer on the NW to NE side with its massive wind field we went from 60+ mph gusts to almost no wind at all.  And there was a big high really squeezing the isobars further enhancing those winds.  Probably won’t be any worse than breezy days with front passages for most in NC at least.  It’s defintiely fast enough to impact GA and SC more. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Whoever gets in on the band that develops on the NW side of this storm is going to get plastered. That looks to be somewhere in N.C. piedmont based on the 12Z runs today so far. 

[jrips27]

24 minutes ago, Lookout said:

hopefully ffc catches up by this afternoon. fwiw, the icon, 3km nam, and rgem have come north a bit on the 12z run. 

eye becoming rather apparent now on satellite. I'd be a little surprised if it doesn't make cat 4 at this rate. 

GFS a little quicker and a tick further north compared to 6z. 

Sure looks like it’s going to give a run at upper 3/low 4 

 

 

[Orangeburgwx]

39 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if ILM went with a few inland Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings especially around the SC/NC border.  CAE just issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the eastern tier of its CWA as of 11AM. 

Yep I'm in it

[FallsLake]

17 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Based on the track there probably will be little wind.  Even with Florence, as soon as we were no longer on the NW to NE side with its massive wind field we went from 60+ mph gusts to almost no wind at all.  And there was a big high really squeezing the isobars further enhancing those winds.  Probably won’t be any worse than breezy days with front passages for most in NC at least.  It’s defintiely fast enough to impact GA and SC more. 

The difference with this storm is it will be interacting with the incoming cold front. There's talk the storm could actually strengthen as it becomes extra-tropical. Not sure how that will affect the winds.   

[downeastnc]

28 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The difference with this storm is it will be interacting with the incoming cold front. There's talk the storm could actually strengthen as it becomes extra-tropical. Not sure how that will affect the winds.   

I know with a few of these storms here in the east that hit later in the year the dry air wrapping into the storm helped mix the winds down, so the steady wind wasn't that much but there were violent hard hitting gust that were way faster than the background wind. Matthew for example had strong winds well away from the center on the NW side.....I wouldn't be surprised to see "rogue" gust to 60-70 mph in places but typically 40-50 mph should be peak gust for most of central and eastern NC away from the coast as it stands now, he hits stronger or is moving faster than forecast and those numbers could go up.....

[FallsLake]

36 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I know with a few of these storms here in the east that hit later in the year the dry air wrapping into the storm helped mix the winds down, so the steady wind wasn't that much but there were violent hard hitting gust that were way faster than the background wind. Matthew for example had strong winds well away from the center on the NW side.....I wouldn't be surprised to see "rogue" gust to 60-70 mph in places but typically 40-50 mph should be peak gust for most of central and eastern NC away from the coast as it stands now, he hits stronger or is moving faster than forecast and those numbers could go up.....

Man it's just going to be nice to see those gust of winds turn from warm/tropical to cool. I'm more excited about the drop in temps then the storm itself. 

[frazdaddy]

Question for those more learned than .I know the NAM has an obvious issue with hurricanes, but once the storm is over land would it be considered at least as good as "normal" in it's handling of the storm?

[downeastnc]

Just now, frazdaddy said:

Question for those more learned than .I know the NAM has an obvious issue with hurricanes, but once the storm is over land would it be considered at least as good as "normal" in it's handling of the storm?

The  NAMS don't do terrible with track so much as intensity......in fact the NAM runs are not far off from any other "better" models at this point as far as track goes...intensity wise they are garbage generally...... but for once it is inland the NAM 3k will be good for tracking banding features etc....in fact the NAM 3k runs are scary for NC as the bands of storms on the east side as the center crosses the state would be very prone to tornados etc....already under a slight risk....

[Lookout]

 

2 hours ago, jrips27 said:

GFS a little quicker and a tick further north compared to 6z. 

Sure looks like it’s going to give a run at upper 3/low 4 

 

 

wrf now gets it down into the upper 930s at landfall. Unless there is an EWC, sure looks like a bad one for the panhandle and well inland. 

uk ticked ever so slightly south but it's in the noise range. wrf/hmon continue to be very consistent with their track..likely bringing 60 to 75mph gusts through much of central ga. If such a track verifies...and Given the robust convection all models are showing on it's north/northwestern side, would expect to possibly see some fairly impressive gusts here too.. So looks like uk/euro vs everything else after landfall.  (edit to add...euro came in just a touch further north.) The differences aren't huge but enough to make a pretty big difference wind wise for my back yard. 

 

FFC finally extended the TS watch north and looks pretty good now. Although an argument could be made to extend it north another row or two of counties Considering the robust convection the models are showing on the northern half of the system..

50 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Man it's just going to be nice to see those gust of winds turn from warm/tropical to cool. I'm more excited about the drop in temps then the storm itself. 

I'm excited to finally get so much needed rain  but amen to that. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

This storm is unique in the sense that once it’s inland the heaviest rain will be NW of the center. 

[frazdaddy]

14 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The  NAMS don't do terrible with track so much as intensity......in fact the NAM runs are not far off from any other "better" models at this point as far as track goes...intensity wise they are garbage generally...... but for once it is inland the NAM 3k will be good for tracking banding features etc....in fact the NAM 3k runs are scary for NC as the bands of storms on the east side as the center crosses the state would be very prone to tornados etc....already under a slight risk....

That makes sense, thank you sir.