magpiemaniac Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Over 24 hours later and still no estimate from Duke. At least I didn’t lose anything (unlike others) and the temps are nice, but I’m afraid to even guess how long it’s going to take to get power back on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 48 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: It is a shame certain Mets totally discounted the stellar HRRR Many companies then put their employees in extreme danger yesterday and many came home to damage that could have been contained if they were home The HRRR was amazingly good here in Danville, consistently showing 6+ inches of rain and strong gusts when other models showed less than 1/2 of that. Euro failed miserably with the track up here, had it WAY too far south. It was super bad with QPF as well. GFS FV# was much much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 28 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Over 24 hours later and still no estimate from Duke. At least I didn’t lose anything (unlike others) and the temps are nice, but I’m afraid to even guess how long it’s going to take to get power back on here. Duke is calling the effect of the storm on its power grid, "death by a thousand cuts". There are several thousand issues, most only affecting a small number of customers. As usual, they are starting with infrastructure, hospitals and the like and then moving to the spots that will restore power to the most people with one fix. Finally, they will move into the neighborhoods working their way down to single customer problems. Those folks will be waiting a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, jburns said: Duke is calling the effect of the storm on its power grid, "death by a thousand cuts". There are several thousand issues, most only affecting a small number of customers. As usual, they are starting with infrastructure, hospitals and the like and then moving to the spots that will restore power to the most people with one fix. Finally, they will move into the neighborhoods working their way down to single customer problems. Those folks will be waiting a while. A guy on my hunting board said that Duke had also sent crews south to preposition to help out in FL/GA....so they are also short crews....not sure if its true though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, jburns said: Duke is calling the effect of the storm on its power grid, "death by a thousand cuts". There are several thousand issues, most only affecting a small number of customers. As usual, they are starting with infrastructure, hospitals and the like and then moving to the spots that will restore power to the most people with one fix. Finally, they will move into the neighborhoods working their way down to single customer problems. Those folks will be waiting a while. I live in a dense neighborhood—and you can interpret that in a couple of ways—so I’m hoping that being in the middle of three thousand dark homes will provide Duke with the incentive to get cracking around here. (After the essentials of course.) Restoring in this area would be a good bang for their buck from an efficiency standpoint. But I’m not holding my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 6 hours ago, SharonA said: Yes, and that twisting can result in huge spiral slashes in the trunks. Those pines are super flexible, as the videos show. The twisting and bending action when the upper growth catches the winds can cause spiral-like cracks. If the tree isn't actually blown over or broken off, sometimes those huge cracks end up being closed again, sometimes closing on objects so it looks like the item was shoved through the three when what happened is it was blown into an open crack which then closed around the object. Somewhere here i have a series of B&W photographs from Ocala National Forest after a major landfall. It was acre after acre of bent, broken, and cracked trees and many of them had massive curling cracks. Some others that were still standing had sap drips down the bark that revealed severe internal damage. Thank you so much for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 5 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said: It is a shame certain Mets totally discounted the stellar HRRR Many companies then put their employees in extreme danger yesterday and many came home to damage that could have been contained if they were home The hrrr did a horrible job for my neck of the woods. Barely gusted to 40 when it was showing we should have had 55 to 65. Guess it all depending on the mechanism for bringing the gusts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 7 hours ago, SharonA said: Yes, and that twisting can result in huge spiral slashes in the trunks. Those pines are super flexible, as the videos show. The twisting and bending action when the upper growth catches the winds can cause spiral-like cracks. If the tree isn't actually blown over or broken off, sometimes those huge cracks end up being closed again, sometimes closing on objects so it looks like the item was shoved through the three when what happened is it was blown into an open crack which then closed around the object. Somewhere here i have a series of B&W photographs from Ocala National Forest after a major landfall. It was acre after acre of bent, broken, and cracked trees and many of them had massive curling cracks. Some others that were still standing had sap drips down the bark that revealed severe internal damage. I would think the timing would have to be perfect for an object to get stuck in a crack in a tree flying by at 140+mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 41 minutes ago, shaggy said: I would think the timing would have to be perfect for an object to get stuck in a crack in a tree flying by at 140+mph. Thousands of trees, thousands of objects. As they yelled at you in little league baseball when you had two strikes, IT ONLY TAKES ONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 It took Duke Energy over thirty hours of “assessing damage” to come up with a power restoration estimate of Tuesday, October 16 at 11:45 PM. I feel sorry for my generator, but it’s a Honda and can probably manage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Posted in the main thread in the tropical subforum but posting here as it is just incredible footage. Sudduth mounted a GoPro in Mexico Beach. In all the recent years of impressive landfall footage, this takes the cake. Some of the gusts/bursts look similar to shockwaves: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 All I got to say about that video is WOW. Notice how all the structures on the opposite side of the road as well as most of the road are gone. I am impressed that the camera stayed put and recorded all of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said: It took Duke Energy over thirty hours of “assessing damage” to come up with a power restoration estimate of Tuesday, October 16 at 11:45 PM. I feel sorry for my generator, but it’s a Honda and can probably manage. The outage numbers for Duke Energy customers in the Triad are as follows as of 9 p.m. Friday: Guilford County – 70,844 Forsyth County – 17,303 Rockingham County – 20,870 Alamance County – 17,332 Randolph County – 9,662 Davidson County – 5,632 Caswell County – 4,190 Stokes County – 2,557 Davie County – 993 Montgomery County – 1,224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 That video is amazing. One of the cool things about the technology we have now. You could put up GoPros in 20 cities around where a hurricane is landing and it be relatively cheap and not risk anyone’s lives. Unreal seeing how fast that water is steaming in and flowing. At first I thought the view changed to a camera on the beach itself because of it. Wow. Could be decades before anything like that will ever be seen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 No power here in far northeastern Guilford county. Estimated restoration is Monday or Tuesday. I do believe Duke energy sent alot of there crews south thinking it wouldn't be that bad here. I have drove around for miles and haven't seen one line truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Peak wind gusts from around the region. https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1050793498885201921?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1050793498885201921&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.city-data.com%2Fforum%2Fhurricanes%2F2973087-atlantic-michael-forms-october-7-2018-a-15.html%23post53353644 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 2 hours ago, yotaman said: Peak wind gusts from around the region. https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1050793498885201921?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1050793498885201921&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.city-data.com%2Fforum%2Fhurricanes%2F2973087-atlantic-michael-forms-october-7-2018-a-15.html%23post53353644 Man I have a hard time believing that. I bet we had sustained 45mph winds here in Kernersville for nearly 20 minutes. There definitely had to be a few gusts over 55mph but I guess that is whats recorded at KINT and/or KGSO. Collectively all of these recordings just seem low to me given the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Yea somethings not right with those numbers. This is a pic from the Matthews NC NOAA observations with over 60 mph gusts before it went offline. Didn’t come back online until today. Here’s the link as well. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F2338&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 After 3 days and a few hours. I can report the metropoplis of Farmer NC has power now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 14 hours ago, hickory said: No power here in far northeastern Guilford county. Estimated restoration is Monday or Tuesday. I do believe Duke energy sent alot of there crews south thinking it wouldn't be that bad here. I have drove around for miles and haven't seen one line truck. There's a ton of folks in Central and SE NC with no power...maybe back on Tuesday or Wednesday...good luck sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 On 10/12/2018 at 10:54 PM, Windspeed said: Posted in the main thread in the tropical subforum but posting here as it is just incredible footage. Sudduth mounted a GoPro in Mexico Beach. In all the recent years of impressive landfall footage, this takes the cake. Some of the gusts/bursts look similar to shockwaves: I can't believe that camera stayed up...must be welded to a steel beam buried in cement. That's mind blowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 On 10/12/2018 at 10:06 PM, magpiemaniac said: It took Duke Energy over thirty hours of “assessing damage” to come up with a power restoration estimate of Tuesday, October 16 at 11:45 PM. I feel sorry for my generator, but it’s a Honda and can probably manage. Hondas are good motors...but I think it's gonna be Wednesday or Thursday before the lights come back on for Central and SE NC...all the resources seem to be down south ATM. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 100K still out of power in NC,good thing they had some sort of warning what was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: 100K still out of power in NC,good thing they had some sort of warning what was coming. A tropical storm warning and then a severe thunderstorm warning for the “stinger jet” is what we received up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 Just to update this for the record, Hurricane Michael has been upgraded to a Category 5 storm at landfall. https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/19/weather/hurricane-michael-upgraded-category-5/index.html (CNN)Hurricane Michael, which barreled into the Florida Panhandle in October, was actually a Category 5 storm when it hit the coast, scientists at the National Hurricane Center said Friday. A post analysis shows the storm was stronger than originally thought, with winds at landfall estimated at 160 mph -- making Michael one of only four Category 5 hurricanes to touch down in the US, according to the scientists. The storm was originally designated as a Category 4, with 155 mph winds, when it made landfall on October 10 near Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, the hurricane center said in a statement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 We’re fortunate this hit in a relatively sparsely populated area. You can still see the terrible tree damage all over the place not far west of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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