Solak Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 From NHC: It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to 50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation over central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a result, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this area of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across portions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this evening and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 4.10 today 1.18'' yesterday = 5.28'' for me,power back on now. Terrible forecasting by local mets downplaying this wind threat,claiming no big wind and a rain event.Yep we got almost 400,000 in NC without power and it's still growing. A 990low moving 23 mph with a decent cold front behind it is gonna cause some wind,come on people.HRRR showed the threat 24 hours ago and the only people discussing it was in here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Solak said: SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES Sounds about right. When the center passed over me earlier this afternoon my barometer dropped to 29.21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Wow. Fishel said it could be over 50mph and not unheard of to see 60-70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Worst flooding I’ve seen here since Frances and Ivan hit us back to back in 04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakegrrl Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 In SW Wake County on west side of Apex and the wind suddenly blew up about a minute ago.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 We just had about 12-15 minutes of some seriously gusty winds and an increase in rain. It has now passed and is raining gently again and trees barely moving in Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Meanwhile up at Elon they have been hard hit with the power out and multiple trees down on campus. https://www.elon.edu/E-Net/Article/167050 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Regan said: Wow. Fishel said it could be over 50mph and not unheard of to see 60-70mph. And very little mention of it last night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, ander420 said: We just had about 12-15 minutes of some seriously gusty winds and an increase in rain. It has now passed and is raining gently again and trees barely moving in Durham. That was a thunderstorm you probably are not done....velocity scans show serious wind close to the ground over you, that band of rain just west of you will get that to the surface as well....should pick back up in 15-30 mins or less.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1050493946399518720 Allan Huffman tweeted 54 gust at RDU gonna go higher than that though I bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Thanks again for all the reports. The worst part of that western flank appears to be in the northern part of the remnant eye wall. Raining heavy here and tropical feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: 4.10 today 1.18'' yesterday = 5.28'' for me,power back on now. Terrible forecasting by local mets downplaying this wind threat,claiming no big wind and a rain event.Yep we got almost 400,000 in NC without power and it's still growing. A 990low moving 23 mph with a decent cold front behind it is gonna cause some wind,come on people.HRRR showed the threat 24 hours ago and the only people discussing it was in here. up to 450,000 now. ...up 50,000 just in the past half hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1050493946399518720 Yeah. I think we are about to get started here shortly based on radar. Winds are picking up. I’m about 10 mins se of the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 You can see the wind field expanding this is all 70+ mph stuff...also dont be fooled west and south of that area the winds are rough and picking up the radar just doesnt see it as well that far away as the beam gets higher 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: And very little mention of it last night. Yea that’s nowcasting not forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Folks I was not a believer in the call for widespread heavy wind advisories. Quite honestly, we've been through many tropical events that just pass us by in the triad and rarely if ever see more than a gusty day. Outside of Hugo, there was nothing that set a precedent for this and in the end, I still think the discretionary alerts were the way to go. I saw a post from Mack earlier that said his winds were unimpressive. So the call was right for his area. We were surprised here in the triad for about 45 minutes, but it was over a swath of maybe 20-30 miles at most. How do you forecast that?? I'm sure I'll stir up a hornets nest, not my intention, but I cant bash the mets here. It was an impossible call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 29 minutes ago, jburns said: Sounds about right. When the center passed over me earlier this afternoon my barometer dropped to 29.21. I am at 29.40 right now near New Bern. Interestingly, with Florence it dropped to 29.38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 SHORT RANGE MODELS, where as advertis3d. That event had some ump to it. Had enough with cane season and espeacilly summer. Feel the cooler air moving in now. Hate it for everyone across SE that has to deal with the after effects from Flo and now Michael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Folks I was not a believer in the call for widespread heavy wind advisories. Quite honestly, we've been through many tropical events that just pass us by in the triad and rarely if ever see more than a gusty day. Outside of Hugo, there was nothing that set a precedent for this and in the end, I still think the discretionary alerts were the way to go. I saw a post from Mack earlier that said his winds were unimpressive. So the call was right for his area. We were surprised here in the triad for about 45 minutes, but it was over a swath of maybe 20-30 miles at most. How do you forecast that?? I'm sure I'll stir up a hornets nest, not my intention, but I cant bash the mets here. It was an impossible call. Agreed but places like GSP at least mentioned there was uncertainty and models showing more winds and a deform band which is why they issued advisories. I think that was perfect. And almost 500,000 people without power and growing isn’t 20-30 mile swath. The whole viewing area has basically been hit and models showed it strengthening after getting to NC so GSP where Mack is was never part of the high wind discussions. Many local Mets though were adamant that we would top out at 30-35 gusts and said this was just going to be a rainy day. Exact words from one. Those are the issues. At least throw it out there that there’s uncertainty and it’s impossible to accurately forecast and areas could potentially see higher gusts. But to tell people you will be fine if you are fine to drive in the rain is a different story that almost half a million people and growing would obviously disagree with. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Ft Bragg reporting 51 mph gust as the band builds south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 A gauge at Public Works in Danville reported 6.75 of rain in less than 2 hours.. Terrible flash flooding.. The Sandy River has crested at its all time level surpassing Fran in 96. The Dan River went from 8 feet to 23.5 in 3 hours and is forecasted to crest at a record 29 feet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power.... Still here, and still have power, for now. Which is good, because we have dinner in the oven, and about 30 minutes left on the timer Anyway, it's starting to pick up here after the nice, long lull. But not much rain again yet, and the real show still hasn't hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 I’m here. Had a 50 mph or so gust in SE Wake. Meh. Looks like the big stuff is to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ander Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power.... Still here - couple good bursts of serious wind but nothing crazy beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Friends and coworkers in Southpoint say they are out of power, but doing fine north of I-70 in east Durham (I need to update my board location). We got a couple of big gusts and that's been it so far. Well, and 3" of rain today IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Most of Guilford county is without power. I drove around and numerous trees across roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Starting to get pretty windy down in SE Raleigh. Have gotten a few strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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