Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Michael now a Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Michael now a Hurricane Well that escalated quickly... Was it Maria that had also undergone rapid intensification last year before it slammed Georgia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Well that escalated quickly... Was it Maria that had also undergone rapid intensification last year before it slammed Georgia? No Maria hit PR and then missed the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 @Solaktime to change the thread name 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Well that escalated quickly... Was it Maria that had also undergone rapid intensification last year before it slammed Georgia? Nope, Maria was Caribbean then OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 That was quick considering the shear which will lessen as it moves N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: @Solaktime to change the thread name Nope, Maria was Caribbean then OTS It might have bern Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: It might have been Irma. Irma hit the Carribian, Cuba, then came up through Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 NWS says for ATL to expect TS conditions. We will see I’m skeptical. I may even take a quick ride down to S. GA and see this sucker move in inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 NC Emergency ManagemVerified account @NCEmergency 6m6 minutes ago Latest #ncwx: Looks like TS #Michael will bring 3-5” rain this week across SE NC & southern Blue Ridge & 2-3” rain across rest of NC. Heaviest rain likely Wed pm - Fri morn. Gusty winds also likely - esp. across SE NC, where trees vulnerable from #Florence. Stay Tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, Powerball said: It might have bern Irma. It was Irma. Opal in 1995 is the October hurricane that caused tremendous damage to N. GA. Michael is similar but seems to be tracking a bit farther east or where Opal did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 For the ArcGIS Online users, here's our latest NCDOT Weather map: http://ncdot.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=52734443786545ba8f3ee302f6c33b00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, shaggy said: This is a much bigger concern for you Florida and Georgia guys but the concern this far north is the wet ground from Florence (even though theres been a lot of drying) could mean any weakened root systems could be in jeopardy if winds get too high. So while we are not expecting nearly the weather y'all could be in for the concern is anything over 50mph in gusts could down already weakened trees here in SC/NC. This is BAD,, very Bad for My area( SENC) As @Shaggy & @Downeast mentioned We have Millions of "weakened" Trees here, STILL lotsa "leaners", and Live Oaks, that are, (I just don't want to think about this). Our Local NWS Has us 4~6 inch rain on TOP of very very SATURATED grounds... 40-60 MPH winds.. Folks this is .. Thousands of roofs here are tarped, Rivers are "Barley" in their Banks.. I don't even... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 And we officially have Michael! 11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 Location: 21.2°N 84.9°W Moving: N at 7 mph Min pressure: 982 mb Max sustained: 75 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 12z NAM at hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: NWS says for ATL to expect TS conditions. We will see I’m skeptical. I may even take a quick ride down to S. GA and see this sucker move in inland. Personally, i'm pulling for the 11am track..as that keeps the strongest winds away from here while still giving us some decent rains. I'm really nervous about getting a gfs like track and getting such strong southerly winds. We'll see how big this system is when it makes landfall but right now it's already fairly large. So i would think Even with that track though some gusts to tropical storm force is probable. Sucks the peak will be at night though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I think landfall is starting to zero in on Panama City to the Big Bend area. The euro has this far enough east that the wind impacts would be negligible for NC. GFS is a different story, however. Euro would need to trend towards the GFS for me to get excited about anything other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 06Z Euro EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pdw Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I live in Macon, GA which is directly in the middle of state. I know it is too early to give specifics but what should I expect where I live? Anything bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, lj0109 said: 06Z Euro EPS: That's a decent west shift....the 06Z in front of the Euro throws me off lol.....the stronger storms stay east though that cluster of ens has shifted west quite a bit as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: That's a decent west shift....the 06Z in front of the Euro throws me off lol.....the stronger storms stay east though that cluster of ens has shifted west quite a bit as well Yep! The 06Z Euro EPS Mean is pretty dang close to the 00Z UK OP with regards to the track over the Carolinas. Will be interesting to see what the 12Z UK and Euro show in the next few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, lj0109 said: Yep! The 06Z Euro EPS Mean is pretty dang close to the 00Z UK OP with regards to the track over the Carolinas. Will be interesting to see what the 12Z UK and Euro show in the next few hours... Several models now have the pressure holding steady or actually falling as if crosses NC and transitions.....wonder what that would mean for mixing down those 850's could be a case where we have average sustained winds 20-30 but are able to see bigger gust to 70+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Am I the only one who thinks the models are over estimating the weaking after it makes landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Several models now have the pressure holding steady or actually falling as if crosses NC and transitions.....wonder what that would mean for mixing down those 850's could be a case where we have average sustained winds 20-30 but are able to see bigger gust to 70+. I think it will matter where that transition occurs. Tropical systems will lose a lot of wind once it passes. But I'm with you in not knowing how the winds would respond to the low (that has passed us) and the newly interacting high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Storms weaken considerably after they make landfall. However, the location and track will affect how much, including the speed. Faster speed and a track over more flat terrain will lessen the weakening for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 32 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Am I the only one who thinks the models are over estimating the weaking after it makes landfall Yep. It will be a TS at best in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 A cat 3+ at landfall and forward movement of 20-25 mph +, would = hurricane force gusts atleast, well inland into SC, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Lookout said: Personally, i'm pulling for the 11am track..as that keeps the strongest winds away from here while still giving us some decent rains. I'm really nervous about getting a gfs like track and getting such strong southerly winds. We'll see how big this system is when it makes landfall but right now it's already fairly large. So i would think Even with that track though some gusts to tropical storm force is probable. Sucks the peak will be at night though. The latest cv3 - GFS run, would be a different look for you!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Pressure is down to 978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Looks like NWS Tallahassee is extremely concerned: Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8 National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018 1143 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1043 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/ This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA ***MICHAEL COULD DEVELOP INTO A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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