cmh90 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Gonna be bad if the HRRR is right....these gust are going to be more vertical and violent as hell....the thing is the band will be narrow you will have a few hrs of 30-40 mph gust then maybe 1-2 hrs of intense wind then 20-30 type gust on the backside of the band..... How is it looking for our area? No one here is even thinking about it and I have a feeling that some people will be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Looks like the NWS RAH is willing to start baby stepping into this backend talk. Saying 55mph+ For now. Foreshadowing. Now to get the local tv mets to mention it. You know, so the public knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Flooding unbelievable here this morning. Already over 6 inches of rain. Nice win for the FV3 GFS being furthest NW than other models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 RAH finally sounding the alarm on the band of heavy wind on the backside in their latest briefing https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, cmh90 said: How is it looking for our area? No one here is even thinking about it and I have a feeling that some people will be caught off guard. Once the wind band on the west side forms it will move east and cross over everyone in NC more or less.....not everyone will get 70-80 gust though I bet some do, widespread 55-65 thoughis starting to look likely.......pretty amazing weather event developing for NC if the hi res models play out, basically its the insane back side snow deform death band we always want to form, but with wind instead of snow lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Flooding unbelievable here this morning. Already over 6 inches of rain. Nice win for the FV3 GFS being furthest NW than other models. Thankfully no flooding here just over 3.50 inches. Brings my total to 112 inches for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 I think GSP, as usual, has done very well. I totally get not sounding alarms based solely on models when it goes against everything their years of experience tells them will happen. But yesterday morning GSP was already putting out watches and wording their discussions to include possibilities for higher winds even though they didn’t think it would verify. I think the large majority of the public would rather hear from Mets that we think this is what will happen, but models do show the possibility of it being worse and it’s extremely difficult to nail down. At least the possibility exists and people can choose what they want. But to blow it off until the event starts is why people shrug off storms. Overhype a storm that doesn’t do as much as advertised then ignore one that does more than advertised. Recipe for disaster in our social media world. And I think because of social media more and more people are scared to admit they’re wrong or don’t know because of the backlash, but then it happens anyway. I definitely don’t envy their jobs and it’s easy to post on a board about these things but being more transparent would be appreciated by most I believe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Once the wind band on the west side forms it will move east and cross over everyone in NC more or less.....not everyone will get 70-80 gust though I bet some do, widespread 55-65 thoughis starting to look likely.......pretty amazing weather event developing for NC if the hi res models play out, basically its the insane back side snow deform death band we always want to form, but with wind instead of snow lol. Exactly how GSP described it yesterday, saying it’s much like a winter storm and terribly hard to predict. Kudos GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Here in CHS we still had gusts 50+. Some close to 60. There was a 57 mph gust at the Folly pier. You guys are getting flooding rains in addition to the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Getting gusty in Danville and Rockingham just gusted to 41 mph already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Zirconia NC Mesowest DW1971 10:46am NNW at 21 with Gusts to 54 (corrected NC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, nchighcountrywx said: Zirconia SC Mesowest DW1971 10:46am NNW at 21 with Gusts to 54 Zirconia NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Getting gusty in Danville and Rockingham just gusted to 41 mph already.. Noooo not in Danville still as can be right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 What are the thoughts for VA Beach on the water?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted. While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level. I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles. It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases. Please be specific, guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said: Noooo not in Danville still as can be right now Not near the airport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted. While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level. I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles. It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases. Please be specific, guys. Here's 925mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Zirconia NC? Near NC/SC line on the Saluda grade off I-26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 I’m kind of in a lull right now as the center is just south of Union NC. Expecting it to ramp back up though once that gets east and north of here. Just notified kids daycare closing at 12:30. Schools were already closed in Union at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 11, 2018 Author Share Posted October 11, 2018 Duke Power outages steadily climbing in NC/SC. from 30K to 50K in the last hour. https://www.duke-energy.com/outages/current-outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 TS Warning just posted for most of the NC counties in GSP’s service area (including Mecklenburg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, GunBlade said: I’m kind of in a lull right now as the center is just south of Union NC. Expecting it to ramp back up though once that gets east and north of here. Just notified kids daycare closing at 12:30. Schools were already closed in Union at least. HRRR shows lull for you well, you guys are the ones that will let us know if the HRRR is overdone or not cause if you are not getting hammered by 1-2pm its overdone 11am 1 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Video of the Cane River near Burnsville NC around 930 this Morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 I work in Lenoir and the winds have increased dramatically. Trees laying sideways on a few of these gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Yeah. Regardless of the NWS release on the squall potential, tv mets are meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 36 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted. While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level. I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles. It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases. Please be specific, guys. Except in this case they are. That's exactly what HRRR shows. 850mb winds mixing ALL the way to the surface at near 90-100% effectiveness. Hence why its required to watch the 850mb winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Yes, definitely pretty quiet in Charlotte. Debating on picking kid up from school early...but feel like I might be too cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: Yes, definitely pretty quiet in Charlotte. Debating on picking kid up from school early...but feel like I might be to cautious. Its your kids. Never too cautious there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Its your kids. Never too cautious there. Yeah...and as I said earlier. I have a healthy fear of charlottes killer trees. was really hoping some folks west of here would be the barometer for this thing verifying, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Do your kids go to a private school? I was under the impression that CMS was closed today? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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