ryan1234 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Regan said: Well, maybe Brad isn’t going off the warning just being placed in Wake. Did I read that right? The RAH discussion suggested they are watching for potentials for higher gusts. He tends to lean conservative with his forecasts and it is typical for him to really digest all the new data before he changes his forecast. But yes, you read that right. GSP has a similar discussion as well. I am currently in a Warning, but much like RAH added Raleigh the warning, I am waiting for GSP to add Charlotte as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Since most of the models grossly underestimated pressure on Michael, like 20-40mb, except for HRMON and a few others, and a lot of wind forecast maps were based of a cat 2 or 3 at landfall, and the wind maps forecast inland, and since it basically came onshore as basically a cat 5, the wind forecasts inland , could be on the low side?? Thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3k NAM still extra happy with winds through the NC Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Shack said: Tornado Warning and Hurricane Warning in Houston County(Warner Robins/Perry GA) Fox24 has a pic of a supposed touchdown in Ft. Valley, but can't tell where. i was following it cause my parents live off Hwy 96 west of the Ft. Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Already 4.3" of rain from the flow ahead here just south of Boone. Lots of mountain flooding coming from this I'm afraid. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 33 minutes ago, Moonhowl said: Could get interesting in downtown Raleigh on Thursday with the buildings catching wind and funneling it down to street level. Could blow over some of the scooter people. Not to mention the NC State Fair is suppose to open tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ncskywarn said: Not to mention the NC State Fair is suppose to open tomorrow afternoon. delayed till Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just me, or does thing seem to be coming slightly farther west than predicted? The turn doesn't seem to be as prominent as forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, frazdaddy said: delayed till Friday Smart idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Just me, or does thing seem to be coming slightly farther west than predicted? The turn doesn't seem to be as prominent as forecasted. Snowgoose mentioned that earlier in the thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Michael will enter georgia as a cat 3 hurricane....125mph.... absolutely incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: Michael will enter georgia as a cat 3 hurricane....125mph.... absolutely incredible. And the eye still clearly visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: And the eye still clearly visible. NHC has it just below hurricane force just southeast of macon now...hope the poster who asked what to expect a while back made preparations to be without power for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, Lookout said: Michael will enter georgia as a cat 3 hurricane....125mph.... absolutely incredible. Yeah you would think the only way thats possible would be over on the coast LOL.....friggen amazing.....HRRR and NAM still have as pocket of hurricane force wind gust on the SE and east side 14 hrs from now.....50 mph gust pushing up to ATL will mean the lower 2/3rd of GA will have power issues.....and hell all of SC will when it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Areas east of Monroe around Wadesboro and up through Albemarle have just been getting trained on by this initial band all day long. They are going to flood big time tomorrow, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 It appears RAH did not issue a TS warning for the NW Piedmont. Not sure I understand that call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 NHC has it a lot weaker inland in 24 hours than previous forecasts. INIT 10/2100Z 30.9N 85.1W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0600Z 32.6N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 35.1N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0600Z 37.6N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 12/1800Z 40.7N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 46.7N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z 49.2N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1800Z...ABSORBED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Mets in Charlotte are kinda meh on it too....BP is usually spot on and yes...conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, CLTwx said: Mets in Charlotte are kinda meh on it too....BP is usually spot on and yes...conservative. Hope they’re right. Seems like they’re trying to not overdo it after Florence backlash from ppl which should’ve never occurred anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 The Twitter world is a mess with angry Atlanta folks in regards to no businesses or schools being closed tomorrow because “Irma was not even this close to here and you closed for that.” Completely different setup for that one though. I was amazed to see how many people remembered the fact Irma didn’t actually track anywhere close to areas it produced strong winds in once it dissipated to a TS. The general public usually isn’t that meteorologically savvy. Especially after a year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, CLTwx said: Mets in Charlotte are kinda meh on it too....BP is usually spot on and yes...conservative. 3 minutes ago, CLTwx said: Mets in Charlotte are kinda meh on it too....BP is usually spot on and yes...conservative. One day his conservative nature is going to bite him in the butt! Maybe not with Michael, but one day he’s going to look really stupid! But I guess if you forecast as it’s happening, you can’t go wrong!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Updated FFC final call? Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 18s19 seconds ago The Tropical Storm Warning has been expanded to include Durham, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Nash, Vance, Wake, and Warren Counties in Central #NCwx. Remnants from #HurricaneMichael will cross the area on Thursday, spreading heavy rain + damaging winds. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201810102107-KRAH-WTUS82-HLSRAH … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Dunkman said: I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow. IF IF IF....that backside intense band of 60-80 mph winds does develop as modeled by a lot of models now it is certainly going to take a lot of people by surprise....all the models have it in one form or another and most start cranking it up just along a line from Charlotte to the Triad....it only last a few hrs but 2-3 hrs of gust 50-80 will be all it takes to cause widespread power outages and trees blocking roads etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow. It's funny to me how much hype there was surrounding Florence, even after we knew for sure it wasn't going to be a big deal apart from some flooding. This should be equivalent or worse, and I've hardly heard a thing about it. Blame the media I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 This confuses me. 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Smithfield - Clayton * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 And, although we haven't had any rain today... Additional 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 It seems to me that a sub 990 low tracking across central NC produces more wind than currently predicted. Mybforecast for tomorrow is east wind 5-10 with gusts to 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, Solak said: This confuses me. 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Smithfield - Clayton * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph I don’t get this because everything seems to be going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now