downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z euro has come north a little on the 12z run...in particular over the carolinas. Keeps 50-70 mph winds all the way through from SC to offshore NC as well and covers a large area with those winds to boot.....this is more believable to me than the GFS maps since the GFS had the pressure at 970 and winds around 90-100 at landfall, and well that was really off lol...the hard part for forecasters is to predict how the trough/ jet streak will interact with the strong circulation and low pressure of Mike....there is really no precedent for this in the analogs etc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z euro has come north a little on the 12z run...in particular over the carolinas. I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. i've been weary of any sig winds near clt but with the RI as it made landfall and the insanely impressive eyewall structure even as it is completely over land...this will catch a lot of people off guard. goodness. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 As fast as the storm will be moving still impressive rain. Schools will be cancelling soon across the areas I'm sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1050086929616769025/photo/1 Jeez. I know the Euro wind maps can be unreliable, but this has me a little concerned. Looks like a CLT-RDU "inland special" This shows gusts to near 70mph. I'd imagine trees will be coming down left and right along with numerous outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 19 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Keeps 50-70 mph winds all the way through from SC to offshore NC as well and covers a large area with those winds to boot.....this is more believable to me than the GFS maps since the GFS had the pressure at 970 and winds around 90-100 at landfall, and well that was really off lol...the hard part for forecasters is to predict how the trough/ jet streak will interact with the strong circulation and low pressure of Mike....there is really no precedent for this in the analogs etc..... There is excellent model agreement now. Every model has shown these winds increasing over nc/sc, including the wrf/hmon. The shear amount of real estate that could see 50 to 70mph wind gusts is incredible. 17 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. Right now, it seems likely to get 45 to 55 based on the hrrr/3km nam....but as downeast says, this forecasts are based on models that don't have a good handle on just how deep/strong michael is currently so it could be a bit higher but i hope not. HRRR is showing gusts of 70 to 80mph all the way into sc alone and based on the storm being 967mb now I really don't want the power to go out because if it does, it could be out a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: There is excellent model agreement now. Every model has shown these winds increasing over nc/sc, including the wrf/hmon. The shear amount of real estate that could see 50 to 70mph wind gusts is incredible. Right now, it seems likely to get 45 to 55 based on the hrrr/3km nam....but as downeast says, this forecasts are based on models that don't have a good handle on just how deep/strong michael is currently so it could be a bit higher but i hope not. HRRR is showing gusts of 70 to 80mph all the way into sc alone and based on the storm being 967mb now I really don't want the power to go out because if it does, it could be out a while. Yeah the number of people without power will end up in the 5-10 million range at least....if it amps up inland and hits ATL/CLT/RDU and east then that number could double..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I know the models showed this (how much?) but antecedent conditions in Charlotte and southern Piedmont/ Upstate adding to potential issues later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Something to keep in mind is there will be dry air intrusion going on with the arrival of the front on the west side of Michael. That could help mix down stronger winds to the surface. The latest runs of the NAM 3km and the 12z HRRR picked up on that nicely. Also the NWS RAH mentioned that as well in their latest briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 The eye is still kicking ass on sat loops and hasn't buckled yet. Looks like forward speed maybe be bumping up like anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 GSP has nice AFD on Michael In terms of the winds, being that Michael has made landfall as a category four storm, there is some concern that the traditional model guidance may be spinning the storm down too quickly, thus under-doing the inland winds. This is always a very tough forecast, and the Tropical Storm Warning that was issued earlier for our southern tier of zones was mainly done to accommodate the tropical storm wind probability info from NHC. The other wind-related concern is the potential for hybrid convective gusts associated with any intense rain bands, which could easily produce occasional 50 mph (or greater) winds. Thus, while our official forecast doesn`t really support the headlines, the uncertainty regarding the intensity of the cyclone and the potential for occasional higher end wind gusts warrants continuation of the Tropical Storm Warning. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Tornado Warning and Hurricane Warning in Houston County(Warner Robins/Perry GA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow. HKY, State wide or more central/eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 52 minutes ago, Lookout said: There is excellent model agreement now. Every model has shown these winds increasing over nc/sc, including the wrf/hmon. The shear amount of real estate that could see 50 to 70mph wind gusts is incredible. Right now, it seems likely to get 45 to 55 based on the hrrr/3km nam....but as downeast says, this forecasts are based on models that don't have a good handle on just how deep/strong michael is currently so it could be a bit higher but i hope not. HRRR is showing gusts of 70 to 80mph all the way into sc alone and based on the storm being 967mb now I really don't want the power to go out because if it does, it could be out a while. It's almost scary how much agreement there is with all the models. What's even scarier is the fact that people seem to be underprepared this go around. With Florence, people stalked up a week in advance. I feel like a lot of news outlets are downplaying the wind threat and that's going to catch a lot of people off guard. Even 45-55 will do some damage. I've already seen over an inch of rain and there is a lot more coming per radar. And that isn't from Michael. Trees will be coming down like crazy. Seeing how close CLT is to SC and the center, it's a bit worrisome. I would imagine this extends to RDU as well. Lot's of people are in the path of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, CLTwx said: HKY, State wide or more central/eastern? I think the western portion of the state will get in the game due to the approaching HP and the resultant pressure gradient. Additionally, the elevation is higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 This thing is going to go into Ga. with a clear eye........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: This thing is going to go into Ga. with a clear eye........ It’s also west of expected. This could be a bigger problem close to ATL than orginally thought although it could still hard hook NE overnight. Given the winds will be NE though and it’s at night I’m not sure effective mixing down will occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I think the western portion of the state will get in the game due to the approaching HP and the resultant pressure gradient. Additionally, the elevation is higher. I recall those pressure gradient winds being significant with Hurricane Floyd; it closed down the Mtn State Fair for a day due to tents blowing down; a totally clear day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow. This hrrr map is one of the more unique maps i've seen...going to be a wall of high winds crossing the carolinas. Showing as high as 75 knots in places. crazy. Saw quite a bit of sun here this afternoon..so tornado threat has certainly increased. Going to have to watch these storms over ga closely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Tropical Storm warning inbound for all of RAH area...if I understand the discussion correctly. Winds just aloft around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused, particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence, the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any major track change (path or speed). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow. I think your right, there is just nothing to base expectations on historically so this is a for real seat of your pants forecast for most local NWS offices.....I am sure their instinct is to ignore the growing model consensus that this storm will basically be a hurricane or hybrid/hurricane all the way till it exist the NC coast, there just isnt a precedent for it really and it would be tough for them to call for 60-80 mph winds cause if it bust they will never hear the end of it......so I feel for the local NWS folks cause if they keep their call for 35-40 mph gust which wont impact much and keep the lights on etc and places end up gusting 60-80 and most of the state is in the dark folks gonna give them a hard time.... School is letting out at noon tomorrow and say there will be "at least" a 2hr delay Friday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 RAH acknowledging the models showing that band of really intense wind on the backside of the center While the surface wind field will have weakened from its current hurricane status, this is a powerful storm with a lot of energy, and the storm`s swift movement will allow far too little time for significant dissipation of this energy. Winds just aloft around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused, particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence, the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any major track change (path or speed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 18z 3km nam showing 50 plus knot gusts moving right up along 85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Could get interesting in downtown Raleigh on Thursday with the buildings catching wind and funneling it down to street level. Could blow over some of the scooter people. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: 18z 3km nam showing 50 plus knot gusts moving right up along 85. So we've got HRRR, NAM and Euro all showing some derivative of this if I recall....I85 from ATL-RAL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wow I can’t believe how strong it was when it hit. I just got outside since this morning. Went in and dark and pouring. Now it’s sunny and so freaking humid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, CLTwx said: So we've got HRRR, NAM and Euro all showing some derivative of this if I recall....I85 from ATL-RAL.... Things certainly seem to be coming together for a widespread wind event for the I-85 corridor from ATL-RDU. I wish more of the local mets would at least mention this possibility. I LOVE Brad P. but he is still going with gusts to maybe 35 maybe 40. He just doesn't want to budge on his forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Well, maybe Brad isn’t going off the warning just being placed in Wake. Did I read that right? The RAH discussion suggested they are watching for potentials for higher gusts. I havent seen any uodates by him by him on twitter regarding winds. Only early this morning on his video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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