Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Agreed and understand. However, across central NC we usually see 25-35mph gusts from significant tropical systems that pass thru. So we get, 35-50 this time, big deal. It's still thunderstorm type activity which can lead to downed trees and power lines. That's really my point. The mets aren't going to freak out over conditions that could come from a spring frontal passage, a summer storm, or a decaying tropical system. Regardless, be prepared! I don't know, i understand not over hyping but widespread 55 to 65mph winds is a pretty big deal....never mind if it gusts to 70....especially considering how wet the ground is in nc. If there are winds that widespread, power outages could be quite widespread which means some could be without power for a while. Irma was a weak system technically when it impacted georgia yet the impacts were very high and some were without power for days....and for those without power for days it's a big deal. FFCs discussion is ominous but not unexpected to most of us i'm sure. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... ...Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of Central Georgia... All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm. Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely. But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in the way of trees. Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu. Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 Pressure down again! 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 Location: 29.4°N 86.0°W Moving: NNE at 14 mph Min pressure: 928 mb Max sustained: 145 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Solak said: Pressure down again! 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 Location: 29.4°N 86.0°W Moving: NNE at 14 mph Min pressure: 928 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Luckily it might not have time for the winds at the surface to catch up to the pressure falls, but what it does mean is the storm will take longer to start to weaken as it moves over land..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Yeah. I think it’s a big deal. Personally. Especially when I’m seeing most people aren’t taking it seriously at all and aren’t prepped. Tv is telling them 15-30mph. Maybe 45mph but low chance. Then, there’s the ones not watching at all and when I post an update on Facebook they are shocked or think it’s not coming. I get the whole “survival of the fittest”. But I think these types of winds are a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, downeastnc said: Luckily it might not have time for the winds at the surface to catch up to the pressure falls, but what it does mean is the storm will take longer to start to weaken as it moves over land..... yep, a big difference between a storm that is strengthening at landfall vs weakening. This is wild to me but nhc has it as still a 100mph hurricane as it enters southwest georgia. damn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Solak said: Pressure down again! 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 Location: 29.4°N 86.0°W Moving: NNE at 14 mph Min pressure: 928 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Recon found 925.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Brett Adair is insane!! He's parking himself literally in the eye at landfall. Looking for a parking garage along the waterfront in Mexico Beach. NUTS!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristospherein Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Brett Adair is insane!! He's parking himself literally in the eye at landfall. Looking for a parking garage along the waterfront in Mexico Beach. NUTS!! I was there in August. I don't remember there being any parking garages. He's going to have a hard time finding a strong structure for protection--there's not a ton in Mexico Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Definitely not weakening. Beam height is 6.7k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: yep, a big difference between a storm that is strengthening at landfall vs weakening. This is wild to me but nhc has it as still a 100mph hurricane as it enters southwest georgia. damn. 2 This. I'm no Josh but I have been in quite a few canes. The best way I can describe it is although the measured wind velocity may be the same a strengthing cane feels much more violent. It swings wildly and very quickly from less wind to more. It is almost like taking repeated punches from a professional fighter(don't ask me how I know that). A weakening cane may have the same amount of variety in wind speed but it feels much more smoothed out. It raises and lowers much slower than a strengthing cane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Lookout said: yep, a big difference between a storm that is strengthening at landfall vs weakening. This is wild to me but nhc has it as still a 100mph hurricane as it enters southwest georgia. damn. I still find it crazy it crashes from 100mph to 45mph in 12 hrs...and its a wound up beast with decent forward speed with trough interaction etc....should hold its own and honestly almost all modeling shows it staying stronger than a 45 mph storm.......the NHC are the experts however and I a mere mortal so I assume they have it nailed as they usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I think Brett just realized he has to move. Heard him talking about no safe structures in Mexico Beach and no plan B route except back to PC. If he stays he's certifiably nuts. Now talking about going to Pt St Joe. Thinking 25' will be high enough there. But no way I would risk that. These guys are at serious risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I’d be surprised if RAH doesn’t expand the TS warning for much of the CWA. Seems like a no brainer to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: I’d be surprised if RAH doesn’t expand the TS warning for much of the CWA. Seems like a no brainer to me. I think so. I am noticing some baby steps up. Now the news is comfortable saying 50mph. I think it’ll be a little at a time as they see how he behaves on land and also not to cause hysteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 919 extrap. holy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Who,is this Brett? Is he weather channel? I don’t get that any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 RDU is failing big time on this one IMO. After overhyping Florence, we're under hyping one of the strongest storms to ever hit the Gulf Coast that will be rocketing up through eastern NC. Unreal. Most people I work with have no clue what there in store for. 50-75mph winds is not joke. Florence barely reached 40MPH in Raleigh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, jburns said: This. I'm no Josh but I have been in quite a few canes. The best way I can describe it is although the measured wind velocity may be the same a strengthing cane feels much more violent. It swings wildly and very quickly from less wind to more. It is almost like taking repeated punches from a professional fighter(don't ask me how I know that). A weakening cane may have the same amount of variety in wind speed but it feels much more smoothed out. It raises and lowers much slower than a strengthing cane. that is one of the more interesting descriptions i've ever heard about it... fascinating. thanks for that. 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 919 extrap. holy... wow. hard to find the words...if it's not officially a cat 5 at landfall, that would almost seem unfair to michael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wind chance table, still only has Charlotte at less than 30% chance of 30knt winds... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/152003.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RDU is failing big time on this one IMO. After overhyping Florence, we're under hyping one of the strongest storms to ever hit the Gulf Coast that will be rocketing up through eastern NC. Unreal. Most people I work with have no clue what there in store for. 50-75mph winds is not joke. Florence barely reached 40MPH in Raleigh. Some tv met tried to explain why Wake isn’t in warning/watch criteria yet. Doesn’t mean we won’t see high winds just not as likely for 1 min or more at a time. I didn’t know that. Regardless, I worry it is downplayed and when they decide to up the possibility of more we have little time. I am seeing some generic 50mph markers were before it was 40 and 45. Baby steps manybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, Poimen said: I’d be surprised if RAH doesn’t expand the TS warning for much of the CWA. Seems like a no brainer to me. GSP decided to pull the trigger an issued a rare Tropical Storm Warning for myself in Union as well as York County. Kinda surprised there is nothing for Charlotte or Raleigh, yet. Considering how close the center of Michael is going to be to both Metros is kind of surprising. Especially with 4-6+ inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 nhc ups the winds to 150 923mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: nhc ups the winds to 150 923mb Damn. This is going to be one of the strongest storms on record to hit the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: nhc ups the winds to 150 923mb That additional 6 (more likely 10)mph seems like a tall hurdle to jump. Might be able to get there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: nhc ups the winds to 150 923mb Correct me if I'm wrong but isnt this a 20mb drop since the 5am update that had him at 943? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Wow this is a serious storm the weather channel is live streaming free on their website https://weather.com/tv/the-weather-channel-live/video/watch-the-weather-channel-live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Lookout said: nhc ups the winds to 150 923mb Michael is going for a Cat 5. I would not be surprised if he makes it. Going to be catastrophic where ever it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: That additional 6 (more likely 10)mph seems like a tall hurdle to jump. Might be able to get there though. Some one reposted a tweet from Eric Webber detailing one possibility in the main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, shaggy said: Correct me if I'm wrong but isnt this a 20mb drop since the 5am update that had him at 943? yepp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Anyone know of any webcams in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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