downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Euro has nasty winds for Eastern NC. This will end up much worse than Florence wind wise. I'm gasing up this morning bf the soccer moms figure things out. Last night the NHC was had 20-30% chance of hurricane winds here, NWS had changed Thur night to hurricane conditions and I wake up and the NHC has a 45 mph TS over us and all the probs for anything over 45 mph winds are gone....then I saw the Euro an was like why would they do that given the output on the Euro....and the storm is coming in 20 mph stronger and a bit faster than they had it back when they had the higher probs of 50 knt and hurricane winds, yet they lower it strength over us without any real changes in the modeling as well.....Guess we will see what happens today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I’m really wondering if this monster will weaken as fast as they are suggesting now. I too having seen any changes in their predictions even though it’s 20+ higher mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Last night the NHC was had 20-30% chance of hurricane winds here, NWS had changed Thur night to hurricane conditions and I wake up and the NHC has a 45 mph TS over us and all the probs for anything over 45 mph winds are gone....then I saw the Euro an was like why would they do that given the output on the Euro....and the storm is coming in 20 mph stronger and a bit faster than they had it back when they had the higher probs of 50 knt and hurricane winds, yet they lower it strength over us without any real changes in the modeling as well.....Guess we will see what happens today... Because they don't base their forecast on a deterministic run of the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Right but one could assume that the inland tracked forecasted weakening should be adjusted some from 2 days ago when they though landfall at 125mph and now with expected 145mph+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Not too much surprise but the track is being adjusted north and west as the ridge is holding strong. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 140 MPH as of the latest update. Wow. That's a good 15 MPH higher than I remember seeing forecasted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 South GA is going to have a monster storm to contend with this evening. I hope those guys are ready for inland hurricane conditions...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 41 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Last night the NHC was had 20-30% chance of hurricane winds here, NWS had changed Thur night to hurricane conditions and I wake up and the NHC has a 45 mph TS over us and all the probs for anything over 45 mph winds are gone....then I saw the Euro an was like why would they do that given the output on the Euro....and the storm is coming in 20 mph stronger and a bit faster than they had it back when they had the higher probs of 50 knt and hurricane winds, yet they lower it strength over us without any real changes in the modeling as well.....Guess we will see what happens today... VF3 gfs has sustained winds of TS force coming through the triangle, gusts near hurricane force. I'm sure nws will catch up today and put up ts warnings for the triangle. I'm getting my chit this morning bf jq public hears the news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Well Wake is not as of yet in the watch. Even though they are says we will have winds in that range here. I still wonder how much higher it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: VF3 gfs has sustained winds of TS force coming through the triangle, gusts near hurricane force. I'm sure nws will catch up today and put up ts warnings for the triangle. I'm getting my chit this morning bf jq public hears the news Good call btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 31 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Not too much surprise but the track is being adjusted north and west as the ridge is holding strong. This is what I was warning people about last night. This storm is not going to jettison east a quickly as they originally forecasted. It's starting to carve a track of its own regardless of the incoming trough to the west northwest of the storm. It's what I call doing a "frontal/jetstream buckle". Michael might wind up making landfall closer to Destin than it will be to Panama City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 15 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: South GA is going to have a monster storm to contend with this evening. I hope those guys are ready for inland hurricane conditions...... NHC, as of latest track update, has it at Hurricane at 0600z at 12mi southwest of my position in Macon.( 32°50′5″N 83°49′6″W) Yes, Lithia, you are right. I spoke to people last night and they definitely think, like most storms, that it's being overhyped for our area. I tried to relay the modeled potential. Considering sending the wife and dogs to our friends in Alpharetta for a day or two. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 42 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Because they don't base their forecast on a deterministic run of the Euro. Right so pick whichever models you want.. point being they haven't really changed or as Hky points out have higher winds. So it's odd to me that the NHC backed off when all the guidance suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Shack said: NHC, as of latest track update, has it at Hurricane at 0600z at 12mi southwest of my position in Macon.( 32°50′5″N 83°49′6″W) Yes, Lithia, you are right. I spoke to people last night and they definitely think, like most storms, that it's being overhyped for our area. I tried to relay the modeled potential. Considering sending the wife and dogs to our friends in Alpharetta for a day or two. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. Hope you stay north of the center. When opal came through in 1995 the hurricane force winds were confined to a small area just east of where the center of the storm passed. Any locations in GA that find themselves there are in for a memorable event to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Down to 931mb. Put in perspective Andrew was 922, Hugo & Hazel right in neighborhood of 928-934ish off top of my head. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Down to 931mb. Put in perspective Andrew was 922, Hugo & Hazel right in neighborhood of 928-934ish off top of my head. I think Florence got down to 930ish as well... Micheal might go 5 or at least 150 near landfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I think Florence got down to 930ish as well... Micheal might go 5 or at least 150 near landfall Yeah, but Florence had weakened quite a bit from that by landfall, in any case. This thing looks like it's still spooling up (A la Charley?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Scott747 Members 3,082 posts Location:Freeport/Surfside Beach, Texas Report post Posted 2 minutes ago Forget the panhandle. If it keeps deepening it will be one of the strongest to ever hit the US. *kinda hard to impress this guy, time to take note 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Hope you stay north of the center. When opal came through in 1995 the hurricane force winds were confined to a small area just east of where the center of the storm passed. Any locations in GA that find themselves there are in for a memorable event to say the least. Might not matter to much Euro expands the wind field quite a bit and has hurricane force gust around the center the entire time the storm is over land from FL to NC....but yeah initially the SE side will be the worst according to the models but still many places in GA and hell even SC and NC potentially will see gust to 60-80 mph...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Still intensifying in my opinion currently. Lightning going off like a thunderstorm in the eye currently.. usually a sign of strengthening.Scary situation for Panama City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Scott747 Members 3,082 posts Location:Freeport/Surfside Beach, Texas Report post Posted 2 minutes ago Forget the panhandle. If it keeps deepening it will be one of the strongest to ever hit the US. *kinda hard to impress this guy, time to take note #icyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: Still intensifying in my opinion currently. Lightning going off like a thunderstorm in the eye currently.. usually a sign of strengthening. Scary situation for Panama City. Almost appears that it’s about to do an ERC. Just looking at the lack of radar signals just outside of the eye wall. But he has defied everything so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 When should we have an idea of how much of a NE turn this storm makes? Would mean HUGE implications for piedmont of NC if it was later making the turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: Almost appears that it’s about to do an ERC. Just looking at the lack of radar signals just outside of the eye wall. But he has defied everything so far. Might be too late for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Might not matter to much Euro expands the wind field quite a bit and has hurricane force gust around the center the entire time the storm is over land from FL to NC....but yeah initially the SE side will be the worst according to the models but still many places in GA and hell even SC and NC potentially will see gust to 60-80 mph...... No doubt at some widespread TS winds inland. I was just referring to that 10-20 miles wide area that will contain the hurricane force winds far inland. I remember opal was fierce but I distinctly remember ending up in what was left of the eye wall. It was horrible even here in west Atlanta. Anyone who gets in there with Michael is going to really feel the wrath even well inland. IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, frazdaddy said: Might be too late for that. It is never too late... Ask Florence 3 minutes ago, weatherlover said: When should we have an idea of how much of a NE turn this storm makes? Would mean HUGE implications for piedmont of NC if it was later making the turn Look at the radar loop posted by LithiaWx... It is already turning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Might be too late for that. Very possible. There will be some wicked video from this storm. Daytime landfalls are awesome for documenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 10, 2018 Author Share Posted October 10, 2018 Beast!!!! 7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 Location: 29.0°N 86.3°W Moving: N at 13 mph Min pressure: 933 mb Max sustained: 145 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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