Suncat Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Are there any early estimates of rainfall amounts along Michael's path? Parts of NC and SC are still pretty wet from Hurricane Florence! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: That makes sense, thank you sir. This frame shows the storms in NC east of the center, semi discrete and probably moving north at 40-60 mph......would be very efficient at bringing down stronger winds and would probably have their fair share of rotations....every frame of the run is like this as it crosses northern SC and NC....so after blasting FL/GA it could be a strong tornado threat for the Carolinas.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Suncat said: Are there any early estimates of rainfall amounts along Michael's path? Parts of NC and SC are still pretty wet from Hurricane Florence! There's still a wide range of possible tracks for the storm. As others have stated the heaviest bands should be to the NW of the storm; particularly the farther north you get. But right now, that could be in the west , central, or east. NHC currently has the central portions of the SE as the highest zone, but again that could easily change. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152906.shtml?rainqpf#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, Suncat said: Are there any early estimates of rainfall amounts along Michael's path? Parts of NC and SC are still pretty wet from Hurricane Florence! Most official totals I am seeing are 4-6" and most of that is over the parts of NC that didn't really flood to bad.....wind will be the bigger issues.....lots of houses with blue tarps on the roofs still and trees that are leaning or damaged...wont take to much to get them all down. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: This frame shows the storms in NC east of the center, semi discrete and probably moving north at 40-60 mph......would be very efficient at bringing down stronger winds and would probably have their fair share of rotations....every frame of the run is like this as it crosses northern SC and NC....so after blasting FL/GA it could be a strong tornado threat for the Carolinas.... that does make it more interesting imby after 6pm thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, Lookout said: wrf now gets it down into the upper 930s at landfall. Unless there is an EWC, sure looks like a bad one for the panhandle and well inland. An EWC would make things a hell of a lot worse... Would widen the windfield and with over 24 hours of open water left it could really ramp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: that does make it more interesting imby after 6pm thur. Yea I’ll second that. Living in Danville that map says gonna be a rough night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, Lookout said: wrf now gets it down into the upper 930s at landfall. Unless there is an EWC, sure looks like a bad one for the panhandle and well inland. uk ticked ever so slightly south but it's in the noise range. wrf/hmon continue to be very consistent with their track..likely bringing 60 to 75mph gusts through much of central ga. If such a track verifies...and Given the robust convection all models are showing on it's north/northwestern side, would expect to possibly see some fairly impressive gusts here too.. So looks like uk/euro vs everything else after landfall. (edit to add...euro came in just a touch further north.) The differences aren't huge but enough to make a pretty big difference wind wise for my back yard. FFC finally extended the TS watch north and looks pretty good now. Although an argument could be made to extend it north another row or two of counties Considering the robust convection the models are showing on the northern half of the system.. I'm excited to finally get so much needed rain but amen to that. I think FFC could stand to beef up the max wind gusts more. I have little doubt we're going to see widespread 60-70mph+ gusts in that southwest part of their CWA. They are going to need to update this current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Here is the latest update on the NWS Southern Region tropical webpage regarding the wind threat for central GA. You can find this information for your specific area at https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical Just click on the "threats and impacts" tab and zoom in! Curious to see if FFC will put out a map with gusts reflecting this potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said: Yea I’ll second that. Living in Danville that map says gonna be a rough night Does look like the NW side will be more intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 20 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: An EWC would make things a hell of a lot worse... Would widen the windfield and with over 24 hours of open water left it could really ramp up I was talking about an ewc right before landfall....Unless there is some sudden intrusion of dry air or something, that seems to be the only thing possible that could limit it from maxing out as it comes in. 16 minutes ago, jrips27 said: I think FFC could stand to beef up the max wind gusts more. I have little doubt we're going to see widespread 60-70mph+ gusts in that southwest part of their CWA. They are going to need to update this current one. yep they are being very conservative....i'm trying not to be too critical since there is still time to adjust but the winds are likely under estimated for sure. The euro has tropical storm force gusts all the way to athens now. I've seen the euro over estimates wind gusts at imes but based on this mornings run and other modeling which are a bit further north, i think a watch is probably a good idea from lagrange to athens at least. I am a bit concerned that areas in central georgia could be caught off guard with how strong the winds are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Just now, Lookout said: I was talking about an ewc right before landfall....Unless there is some sudden intrusion of dry air or something, that seems to be the only thing possible that could limit it from maxing out as it comes in. yep they are being very conservative....i'm trying not to be too critical since there is still time to adjust but the winds are likely under estimated for sure. The euro has tropical storm force gusts all the way to athens now. I've seen the euro sometimes over estimates wind gusts but based on this mornings run and other modeling which are a bit further north, i think a watch is probably a good idea from lagrange to athens at least. I am concerned that areas in central georgia could be caught off guard with how strong the winds are. Agreed. Here is new 12z Euro max gusts from 5-8AM Thursday morning. These gust maps are inflated and that has been well documented on this board. It's probably a good idea to take 15-20% off the given max value to get a realistic idea of what would actually happen if the Euro is correct. Still that paints a widespread 60mph+ area across central/southern GA https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/georgia/gusts-3h-mph/20181011-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Check out the max along the escarpment on the euro, right through Big Frosty turf. According the the Raleigh NWS my forecasted highest sustained winds where 12 mph from this mornings package. Gonna be TS+gust, especially SE part of county with easily 4-6 rain county wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Agreed. Here is new 12z Euro max gusts from 5-8AM Thursday morning. These gust maps are inflated and that has been well documented on this board. It's probably a good idea to take 15-20% off the given max value to get a realistic idea of what would actually happen if the Euro is correct. Still that paints a widespread 60mph+ area across central/southern GA https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/georgia/gusts-3h-mph/20181011-1200z.html These maps were about 15-20 mph overdone in Florence. Still, 70 mph wind gusts are nothing to talk down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Check out the max along the escarpment on the euro, right through Big Frosty turf. According the the Raleigh NWS my forecasted highest sustained winds where 12 mph from this mornings package. Gonna be TS+gust, especially SE part of county with easily 4-6 rain county wide. Yeah very interesting. Euro just showed 68 mph wind gust here on the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 GOES 16 imagery. Michael flexing his muscles this afternoon with the US in sight. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-southeast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Kind of what all have been saying. GSP echo's Quote On Thursday morning, the heavy rain should move in across metro Charlotte and the rest of the wrn Piedmont, so the Flash Flood Watch will begin at 6 am /10Z Thursday/. Some of the model guidance is showing a good signal for very heavy rain on Thursday across metro Charlotte. Given the experience last month with Florence, the highest threat for flash flooding might exist in that area, so we will be keeping a close eye on that. As for the tornado threat, although the right front quad does not move into the fcst area, we will not rule out the tornado threat wrapping into the I-77 corridor starting mid-morning on Thursday and continuing into the afternoon. The storm will be moving northeast quickly, so the back edge of the precip will cross the fcst area SW to NE in the afternoon and evening on Thursday. The best wind gust potential might actually exist in the pressure gradient on the west side of the system late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 LOL... Check out OUR Local NWS Statement.. Can you spot the Mistake????? Otherwise a very, Nasty Forecast on Tap.. I agree with with @Lookout, the Dews & Temps are going to be interesting afterwards.. Again as @downeastnc & @shaggy have pointed out Folks here in SENC are going to get "whacked" with Micheal, Blue Tarps scattered thoughout the CWA area(s), this is going to be added Misery, a TKO A-La McGregor fxus62 kilm 092009 afdilm Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 409 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 …... ------------------------------- Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/... as of 300 PM Tuesday...increasing deep tropical moisture feed ahead of micheal will produce periods of heavier rain and gusty showers leading into Thursday as Michael approaches from the south. Michael will weaken as it moves into our area from the south. The main effects will periods of strong gusty winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding or run up during times of high tides, and possible tornadoes. Pcp water reaches up near 2.5 inches Wed night into thurs as winds increase out of the south to southeast in the outer circulation of micheal. Expect gusty showers to move on shore through Wed night and then trop storm conditions spreading north on thurs as micheal reaches the area thurs morning. The center is still forecast to move up the I-95 corridor through the day on thurs exiting out just north of Hatteras Fri morning, with winds forecast to reach up to 40 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will be found in heavier rain showers and thunderstorms. The fast moving storm should produce up to 2 to 4 inches of rain in places with isolated higher amounts. Flash flooding in possible, especially inland where heavier rain should be focused. As the weakening storm moves toward and across eastern Carolinas on thurs, tornadoes will become a concern, especially as the increase in shear will be coincident with diurnal heating. The impacts across the local area will be worsened by the fact that the area may be much more vulnerable due to Florence, in terms of wet ground leading to fallen trees, tarps on roofs, etc... Florence will track off to the northeast with plenty of dry air wrapping around the back end heading into Fri morning. This will lead to clearing skies and overnight lows dropping into the 60s, still above normal but cooler than previous days. The tropical air mass will maintain warm and humid conditions through thurs with temps well above normal, 80s during the day on thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 First time there’s been two hurricanes in one season with the same name! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 CAT 3 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 Location: 26.0°N 86.4°W Moving: N at 12 mph Min pressure: 957 mb Max sustained: 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Looking pretty beastly now. Up to 120 MPH. It does look like the worst should pass west of Tallahassee, though things look very bad for places like Panama City, St. George Island, etc. I’m glad my apartment is on the NE side of town. Hopefully nothing too bad happens there. I will be in Normandy tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Do I hear Cat 4? What an amazing ramp up. Very Katrina-esque as far as RI goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 TS watches up for entire MHX CWA...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 Tropical Storm Watch issued for Cumberland, Edgecombe, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Sampson, Wayne, Wilson counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Alarm just went off. NWS just upgraded Macon(Bibb County) to Tropical Storm Warning. Can't say we've had that here before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Shack said: Alarm just went off. NWS just upgraded Macon(Bibb County) to Tropical Storm Warning. Can't say we've had that here before? I would not be surprised to see hurricane force gust there.....hope you got a plan for not having power for several days..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Interesting change to the NHC wind prob maps for NC at least.....last advisory there was no chance over NC anywhere and now there is a 20-30% chance of seeing hurricane force winds....will be interesting to see if these numbers go up, also looks decent for gust to 55 over a nice hunk of NC.....might have to see them tropical storm watches spread west some...also expect hurricane force wind chances to grow in central GA, I think they ramp this storm down way to fast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Glad to see most of the nasty stuff should be east of my location. Some rain and then the big prize. Fall weather!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 124kt (150mph) winds found by the aircraft at flight level... Is this b**** going to go Cat 5? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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