Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said: Looks like NWS Tallahassee is extremely concerned: Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8 National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018 1143 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1043 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/ This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA ***MICHAEL COULD DEVELOP INTO A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST*** CAE NWS just added "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" to our forecast Wednesday Night into Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said: Looks like NWS Tallahassee is extremely concerned: Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8 National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018 1143 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1043 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/ This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA ***MICHAEL COULD DEVELOP INTO A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST*** Its been a while since a strong organized hurricane has barreled inland bringing very high winds far inland.....and the insane rainfalls of the last few big storms has overshadowed the wind impact....if Mike comes in as a 120ish Cat 3 and accelerating off the the NE quickly there will be plenty of significant hurricane force winds well inland especially along and east of track. This will extend well into GA and even potentially depending on a several factors be capable of producing winds to 50-75 mph the entire time its over land..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 12Z Euro rolling now....A lot faster vs 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 12Z Euro makes landfall west of PCB near Seaside/Rosemary Beach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 New Euro is much farther west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 12Z Euro up to Hour 102: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Euro looks more aligned with FV3. Strong wind gusts shown all the way into the Carolinas. Looks like impacts in the midlands could be worse than Florence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, lj0109 said: 12Z Euro up to Hour 102: Right over me.....caves to the GFS a bit......now the question for many of us up here still is going to be what kind of winds will this produce up in eastern and central SC/NC.....so many houses with tarps on roofs and leaning trees.....they might handle 40-45 mph gust for a few hrs but 60-75 mph gust even for a few hrs would be a issue for a lot of people and power outages would be widespread and half the power lines in eastern NC are brand new lol.....the folks in Fl and GA are gonna get hammered for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Looks like I picked a good week to be on vacation in France! Looks potentially very bad for Tallahassee, though! A lot stronger than Hermine, though at least Hermine already knocked down a lot of the weaker trees. It does look like the more recent modeling takes the worst impacts west of Tallahassee, though there’s obviously plenty of time for that to change, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Euro has it moving from Macon GA to Florence,SC in close to 12 hours,275 miles distance.Euro has a 983 low there at 84. Basically you have a strong 983 low moving close to 25mph,someone better start tying things down if its right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I think Micheal is going to come in further east... Models aren't seeing that mini disturbance in the Bahamas that is going to tug on the hurricane imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I think Micheal is going to come in further east... Models aren't seeing that mini disturbance in the Bahamas that is going to tug on the hurricane imo Can you show me an example of this disturbance? I'm having a hard time seeing it on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 One thing I’m seeing is that it appears with this storm the heavy axis of precip appears to be on NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Surprised I haven't seen some facebook picture showing the 12z Nam 3k yet.... That would be epic destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Here are Euro wind gust forecast for Destin area. Extreme gusts are shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 Looks like the RAH area will be mostly outside looking in (for now) Storm speed will determine rainfall amounts. The main story continues to be the remnants of Michael which remain forecast to cross NC on Thursday. Prior to Michael's crossing, the area of cloudiness and rain currently just east of the Bahamas is progged to move to the northwest and overspread the Carolinas Wednesday and Wednesday night, providing some rain, but generally less than 1 inch QPF. Then conditions will deteriorate on Thursday as Michael moves NE across the Carolinas. It's worth noting that the GFS and ECMWF are fairly similar with timing until it reaches SC. Then the two models begin to diverge with regard to forward speed as it crosses NC. The ECMWF slows down over NC, while the GFS quickly ejects the system northeastward and off the coast. The slower ECMWF has notably more QPF for central NC versus the GFS. That said, our confidence remains low regarding the flooding potential, as our rivers can handle and inch or two of QPF that the GFS is producing, while 6 or more inches of rain that the ECMWF is suggesting would likely result in some renewed river flooding. Otherwise, right now we have wind gusts peaking around 35 mph (mainly south and east of Raleigh) as the system moves across on Thursday, which with a wet ground could possibly blow over any trees that are already leaning or that were weakened during Florence. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, WintersNotComing said: Can you show me an example of this disturbance? I'm having a hard time seeing it on models. Would if I could, but only can upload .02MB... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pdw Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro has it moving from Macon GA to Florence,SC in close to 12 hours,275 miles distance.Euro has a 983 low there at 84. Basically you have a strong 983 low moving close to 25mph,someone better start tying things down if its right. I currently live around Macon, GA, should we be worried about anything besides a little wind and some heavy rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The longer term issues remain centered around the eventual track and speed of Hurricane Michael after it makes landfall somewhere along the Florida Gulf coast. Current NHC track brings the system towards the cwa Wednesday night, then across the area on Thursday, exiting the northeastern counties by Thursday evening. The center of circulation right now is forecast to come through the central CSRA and Midlands. Areas east of the center will have an isolated tornado threat as the system moves through. Winds will be on the increase Wednesday night as the system approaches, and should be rather gusty on Thursday, especially over the central and eastern counties, based on current track. Sustained winds may remain below Tropical Storm criteria, but wind gusts may approach or exceed the criteria. Can not rule out the need for Tropical Storm watches at some point in the future, but confidence remains low at this time for meeting criteria. Heavy rainfall will also be an issue as Michael moves through Wednesday night through Thursday, and some flooding/flash flooding may occur. In other words "we don't know yet"... I seriously think they should at least put up Tropical Storm Watches just to be on the safe side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 GFS is a little West! Probably taking out some trees in CLT, on that path! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS is a little West! Probably taking out some trees in CLT, on that path! 40-45mph gusts from Columbia to West CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 12z models were a step towards an opal scenario, except further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 8, 2018 Author Share Posted October 8, 2018 48 minutes ago, pdw said: I currently live around Macon, GA, should we be worried about anything besides a little wind and some heavy rain? Depending on the banding location, there is always the possibility of quick spin-up tornadoes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 4 hours ago, WintersNotComing said: Euro looks more aligned with FV3. Strong wind gusts shown all the way into the Carolinas. Looks like impacts in the midlands could be worse than Florence. Oh my, bad, bad, & MORE "Breaking Bad" for SENC.. What, (trees) #Florence didn't Finish off.. Mikey Will.. Many are back in Full "SPRING" bloom.. AND WEAK.. not counting the ground Saturation.. Still in place.. 4~6 inches of Rain,, ??? Flooding all over again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Pressure down to 967.8 Damn... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Winds at FL of 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 hours ago, pdw said: I currently live around Macon, GA, should we be worried about anything besides a little wind and some heavy rain? PDW, I'm in Macon. Welcome ! A 983mb Low will mean, at a minimum, very high Tropical Storm force winds for sure for the heart of Georgia. Rain not so much a concern,(super dry here) as it is fast moving, but we could still see 3-6". The track, wherever it winds up, 50 miles east or 50 miles west of us will mean significant difference in the winds. Euro track has came west, closer to what the GFS has been saying, so being 72hrs out I think we have much to concern ourselves with as it pertains to winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Pressure down to 967.8 Damn... Winds up to 85mph at the 8PM update. Michael continues to organize this evening. 30 minutes ago, Shack said: PDW, I'm in Macon. Welcome ! A 983mb Low will mean, at a minimum, very high Tropical Storm force winds for sure for the heart of Georgia. Rain not so much a concern,(super dry here) as it is fast moving, but we could still see 3-6". The track, wherever it winds up, 50 miles east or 50 miles west of us will mean significant difference in the winds. Euro track has came west, closer to what the GFS has been saying, so being 72hrs out I think we have much to concern ourselves with as it pertains to winds. Yep watching closely here in Macon as well. Last year, Irma brought wind gusts in the 50-55mph range and brought quite a few trees down in residential areas. Looks like this could rival or maybe even surpass that depending on the track. Definitely going to be an interesting few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pdw Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Shack said: PDW, I'm in Macon. Welcome ! A 983mb Low will mean, at a minimum, very high Tropical Storm force winds for sure for the heart of Georgia. Rain not so much a concern,(super dry here) as it is fast moving, but we could still see 3-6". The track, wherever it winds up, 50 miles east or 50 miles west of us will mean significant difference in the winds. Euro track has came west, closer to what the GFS has been saying, so being 72hrs out I think we have much to concern ourselves with as it pertains to winds. I actually live in Lizella but it is easier just telling people Macon, GA since most people have heard of it. We learned our lesson with Irma and bought a whole house generator earlier this year so will have power. We lost power for about 5 or 6 days last year. Thank you for the information. I believe in preparing for the worst and hoping for the best! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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