Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Someof our Florida and Georgia members should see some bad weather. For us SC/NC folks it needs to be hauling butt and stronger than forecast to bring us any wind. Quite frankly i dont want to see any rain until thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Could end up getting wind almost as bad as we did with Flo IMBY if he gets as strong and takes the track and speed several models have him at.....luckily the forward speed will cut down on rainfall totals.....it all comes down to how organized Mike is and how his wind field plays out as he transitions to a ET low..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 We don't need the wind but rain would be welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro and Ukie still look real close but the Euro is slower by 12-24 hours. Euro has a 977 low over Savannah at day 5,Ukie has a 970 low there 18 hours earlier moving NE.GFS looks way too west and looks like the outlier right now but we'll see. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 ATL area needs to route for the east trends to stop if you want to get in on the action. I dont see much interesting weather on the west side of this storm. Michael will end up pulling down some nice dry dewpoints from the west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: ATL area needs to route for the east trends to stop if you want to get in on the action. I dont see much interesting weather on the west side of this storm. Michael will end up pulling down some nice dry dewpoints from the west though. Yeah, they are 1 or 2 more SE shifts from being totally dry, as well as MBY also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro moves this from Savannah to Wilmington in 9 hours.Considering its about 250-300 miles distance that thing has gotta be moving 25-30 mph. Lots of forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Recon found a (the?) center about a degree and a half East of the initiation point. Wind map shows an elongated W/E circulation. https://earth.nullschool.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 And another(?) center 1 1/2 degrees NE of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Euro op is about dead center of its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 It’s Up to 50 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Yep. Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east, closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Stronger storm forecasted FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 19.2N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Good graphic here. Michael Watkins @watkinstrack 3m3 minutes ago Center of #Michael has reformed/shifted eastward from 19.2N 86.9W at 11AM to 19.2N 85.5W now at 5PM EDT. That's a 100+ statute mile relocation in 6 hours. NHC shifts east (image) while we wait for impact on next model cycle (72 hour fcst shown only) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 MHX already got TS conditions in forecast for MBY.....that forward speed is a issue as far as wind goes along and east of the track could see some decent gust especially over the IBX/OBX Thursday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 I know theres huge spread in track along the path due to speed among the models. The 4 day and 5 day plots are 656 miles apart so that would put forward speed at 27.3mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 4 hours ago, LithiaWx said: ATL area needs to route for the east trends to stop if you want to get in on the action. I dont see much interesting weather on the west side of this storm. Michael will end up pulling down some nice dry dewpoints from the west though. I don’t know if there is any scenario at the moment where they see strong winds. If it’s a strong system it means it was probably over water longer and will get kicked east by the incoming trof. If it’s weaker it’s more west but probably isn’t that strong by the time it reaches there. I guess there is a possible unlikely scenario where it comes ashore in 72 hours and undergoes RI and comes in as a 4 over AL or far west FL sand they get slammed but it’s not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Oh boy here we go... https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1049082033421635585 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 4 hours ago, downeastnc said: MHX already got TS conditions in forecast for MBY.....that forward speed is a issue as far as wind goes along and east of the track could see some decent gust especially over the IBX/OBX Thursday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Yeah with the enhancement from the front it looks like there will be a huge area of TS winds north of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several passes through the system during the past few hours, and somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt. This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours. With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast. Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east coast of the United States. Michael should then become an extratropical low by day 5. The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States, exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a fairly confident track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today. 2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 20.6N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Thanks to forward speed, parts of NC will definitely see sustained TS force winds 50-60 mph range with a few higher gust. And I'm not talking about just along the coast. The I-74 corridor will have some sloppy wx to contend with Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Euro has the eye moving directly over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 With that forward speed places in central and south GA could see winds gusting over 80-90 well inland, then depending on how it transitions to ET the wind field could hold up with rogue gust to hurricane force the entire time its over land especially on the N and E sides.....or it could be only capable of gust 40-45 by the time it gets to the Carolinas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Euro has the eye moving directly over me Yea this will definitely catch a few folks attn when it flys by us Thurs into Fri. And again its all do to forward speed as well as its interaction with the front. Should be able to net 3 to 6 inches of rain and some 50 to 60 mph wind. I feel this thing will be a major when it makes landfall. Its already RI and should continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Could be fun times for us over here in Charleston depending on how this plays out. Possibly the 3rd named storm passing over Charleston County in 3 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 Hard for me to expect winds higher than say 40-45 given the distance over land it has to travel.....though the transition to ET could be a wild card in how efficient it is getting the 850's to the surface, the ICON actually has the pressure deepening as the center passes over eastern NC and begins to go xtropical....could be a meh event with gust to 40ish or it could be a wild 4-6 hrs with rogue gust getting to 60-75 mph.....probably wont know which of those will happen until it actually gets here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: With that forward speed places in central and south GA could see winds gusting over 80-90 well inland, then depending on how it transitions to ET the wind field could hold up with rogue gust to hurricane force the entire time its over land especially on the N and E sides.....or it could be only capable of gust 40-45 by the time it gets to the Carolinas... yeah damaging winds are becoming an increasing concern here. I want the rain badly but i'm hoping the more southern tracks verify. Don't want to deal with power outages or tree damage. Worst case is A track like the wrf/hmon which would mean southerly winds here which would make for some nerve racking times with one of the last oaks I have falling toward the house. (and naturally the highest winds will be at night). The good news is the highest of the winds will be short lived and conditions overall are dry but still a lot of trees could come down given the high gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: yeah damaging winds are becoming an increasing concern here. I want the rain badly but i'm hoping the more southern tracks verify. Don't want to deal with power outages or tree damage. Worst case is A track like the wrf/hmon which would mean southerly winds here which would make for some nerve racking times with one of the last oaks I have falling toward the house. (and naturally the highest winds will be at night). The good news is the highest of the winds will be short lived and conditions overall are dry but still a lot of trees could come down given the high gust potential. This is a much bigger concern for you Florida and Georgia guys but the concern this far north is the wet ground from Florence (even though theres been a lot of drying) could mean any weakened root systems could be in jeopardy if winds get too high. So while we are not expecting nearly the weather y'all could be in for the concern is anything over 50mph in gusts could down already weakened trees here in SC/NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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