Hurricane Michael

[Solak]

1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.

[Solak]

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[shaggy]

Someof our Florida and Georgia members should see some bad weather. For us SC/NC folks it needs to be hauling butt and stronger than forecast to bring us any wind. Quite frankly i dont want to see any rain until thanksgiving.

[downeastnc]

Could end up getting wind almost as bad as we did with Flo IMBY if he gets as strong and takes the track and speed several models have him at.....luckily the forward speed will cut down on rainfall totals.....it all comes down to how organized Mike is and how his wind field plays out as he transitions to a ET low.....

[yotaman]

We don't need the wind but rain would be welcomed.

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro and Ukie still look real close but the Euro is slower by 12-24 hours.

Euro has a 977 low over Savannah at day 5,Ukie has a 970 low there 18 hours earlier moving NE.GFS looks way too west and looks like the outlier right now but we'll see.

Carry on.

 

[LithiaWx]

ATL area needs to route for the east trends to stop if you want to get in on the action.  I dont see much interesting weather on the west side of this storm.  Michael will end up pulling down some nice dry dewpoints from the west though. 

[mackerel_sky]

11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

ATL area needs to route for the east trends to stop if you want to get in on the action.  I dont see much interesting weather on the west side of this storm.  Michael will end up pulling down some nice dry dewpoints from the west though. 

Yeah, they are 1 or 2 more SE shifts from being totally dry, as well as MBY also.

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro moves this from Savannah to Wilmington in 9 hours.Considering its about 250-300 miles distance that thing has gotta be moving 25-30 mph.

Lots of forward speed.

[Solak]

Recon found a (the?) center about a degree and a half East of the initiation point.

Wind map shows an elongated W/E circulation.

https://earth.nullschool.net/

 

[Solak]

And another(?) center 1 1/2 degrees NE of that one.

[NCSNOW]

Euro op is about dead center of its ensembles.

[Sw NC weather]

It’s Up to 50 mph

[Solak]

Yep.

Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,
closer to the convection.  The Air Force aircraft has measured peak
925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
40-45 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
increased to 45 kt.

[Solak]

Stronger storm forecasted

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 19.2N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Solak]

Good graphic here.

Michael Watkins‏ @watkinstrack 3m3 minutes ago

 

Center of #Michael has reformed/shifted eastward from 19.2N 86.9W at 11AM to 19.2N 85.5W now at 5PM EDT. That's a 100+ statute mile relocation in 6 hours. NHC shifts east (image) while we wait for impact on next model cycle (72 hour fcst shown only)

[downeastnc]

MHX already got TS conditions in forecast for MBY.....that forward speed is a issue as far as wind goes along and east of the track could see some decent gust especially over the IBX/OBX

Thursday

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night

Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[shaggy]

I know theres huge spread in track along the path due to speed among the models. The 4 day and 5 day plots are 656 miles apart so that would put forward speed at 27.3mph.

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

ATL area needs to route for the east trends to stop if you want to get in on the action.  I dont see much interesting weather on the west side of this storm.  Michael will end up pulling down some nice dry dewpoints from the west though. 

I don’t know if there is any scenario at the moment where they see strong winds.  If it’s a strong system it means it was probably over water longer and will get kicked east by the incoming trof.   If it’s weaker it’s more west but probably isn’t that strong by the time it reaches there.   I guess there is a possible unlikely scenario where it comes ashore in 72 hours and undergoes RI and comes in as a 4 over AL or far west FL sand they get slammed but it’s not likely 

[Orangeburgwx]

Oh boy here we go...

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1049082033421635585

[Dunkman]

4 hours ago, downeastnc said:

MHX already got TS conditions in forecast for MBY.....that forward speed is a issue as far as wind goes along and east of the track could see some decent gust especially over the IBX/OBX

Thursday

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night

Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Yeah with the enhancement from the front it looks like there will be a huge area of TS winds north of the track.

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep
convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and
upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western
semicircle.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made
several passes through the system during the past few hours, and
somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen
to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt.
This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which
has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly
intensified during the past 24 hours.

With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official
intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast.
Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures
are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the
favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of
the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model.  This new official forecast
brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48
hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time
between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael
will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall.  Weakening is
expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain
tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east
coast of the United States.  Michael should then become an
extratropical low by day 5.

The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving
northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt.  A general northward motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours
as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and
central United States.  After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn
northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States,
exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5.  Nearly all
of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope.  Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids.  Overall the
track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a
fairly confident track forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba,
where a hurricane warning is now in effect.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and
the Isle of Youth today.

2.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major
hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week,
and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for
portions of the area.  Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are
especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's
exact track or intensity.  Residents in the watch areas should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 20.6N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  08/1800Z 21.7N  85.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  09/0600Z 23.5N  86.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  09/1800Z 25.2N  86.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  10/0600Z 27.2N  86.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  11/0600Z 31.2N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
96H  12/0600Z 35.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  13/0600Z 40.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
 

[NCSNOW]

Thanks to forward speed, parts of NC will definitely see sustained TS force winds 50-60 mph range with a few higher gust. And I'm not talking about just along the coast. The I-74 corridor will have some sloppy wx to contend with Thursday into Friday.

[Orangeburgwx]

Euro has the eye moving directly over me

[downeastnc]

With that forward speed places in central and south GA could see winds gusting over 80-90 well inland, then depending on how it transitions to ET the wind field could hold up with rogue gust to hurricane force the entire time its over land especially on the N and E sides.....or it could be only capable of gust 40-45 by the time it gets to the Carolinas...

[NCSNOW]

5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Euro has the eye moving directly over me

Yea this will definitely catch a few folks attn when it flys by us Thurs into Fri. And again its all do to forward speed as well as its interaction with the front. Should be able to net 3 to 6 inches of rain and some 50 to 60 mph wind. 

I feel this thing will be a major when it makes landfall. Its already RI and should continue.

[Ser Pounce]

Could be fun times for us over here in Charleston depending on how this plays out. Possibly the 3rd named storm passing over Charleston County in 3 years?

[downeastnc]

Hard for me to expect winds higher than say 40-45 given the distance over land it has to travel.....though the transition to ET could be a wild card in how efficient it is getting the 850's to the surface, the ICON actually has the pressure deepening as the center passes over eastern NC and begins to go xtropical....could be a meh event with gust to 40ish or it could be a wild 4-6 hrs with rogue gust getting to 60-75 mph.....probably wont know which of those will happen until it actually gets here though.

[Lookout]

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

With that forward speed places in central and south GA could see winds gusting over 80-90 well inland, then depending on how it transitions to ET the wind field could hold up with rogue gust to hurricane force the entire time its over land especially on the N and E sides.....or it could be only capable of gust 40-45 by the time it gets to the Carolinas...

yeah damaging winds are becoming an increasing concern here. I want the rain badly but i'm hoping the more southern tracks verify.  Don't want to deal with power outages or tree damage. Worst case is  A track like the wrf/hmon which would mean southerly winds here which would make for some nerve racking times with one of the last oaks I have   falling toward the house. (and naturally the highest winds will be at night).  The good news is the highest of the winds will be short lived and conditions overall are dry  but still a lot of trees could come down given the high gust potential. 

[shaggy]

4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah damaging winds are becoming an increasing concern here. I want the rain badly but i'm hoping the more southern tracks verify.  Don't want to deal with power outages or tree damage. Worst case is  A track like the wrf/hmon which would mean southerly winds here which would make for some nerve racking times with one of the last oaks I have   falling toward the house. (and naturally the highest winds will be at night).  The good news is the highest of the winds will be short lived and conditions overall are dry  but still a lot of trees could come down given the high gust potential. 

This is a much bigger concern for you Florida and Georgia guys but the concern this far north is the wet ground from Florence (even though theres been a lot of drying) could mean any weakened root systems could be in jeopardy if winds get too high. So while we are not expecting nearly the weather y'all could be in for the concern is anything over 50mph in gusts could down already weakened trees here in SC/NC.