CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 That happens all the time though. We get cold fronts here where it goes from 70s to 20s in a few hours with lake effect bands coming behind it dumping feet of snow. What happened today is extremely rare. I didn't think you could get a supercell like what happened over West Seneca and snow in the same day. It has to only happened a handful of times. It was in July bro, that will NEVER happen here, NEVER, but!perhaps you didnt see the July part. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Teenzie weenzie teenie weenie itty bitty snowflakes falling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 We have had on and off flakes for the majority of the overnight/morning hours, may be able to squeak out a coating or so tomorrow morning with a transient band that will be swinging through the area.. A continued shift of the area of high pressure to the east tonight will allow the low level flow to back to west then southwest. A period of better lake fetch, particularly on Lake Ontario may be favorable enough to reinvigorate the lake effect precipitation as this backing transition takes place, although relatively low inversion heights and weak warm air advection will likely greatly limit the intensity of this activity. Most areas will see low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 4 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: It was in July bro, that will NEVER happen here, NEVER, but!perhaps you didnt see the July part. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Oh I missed that, yeah that is pretty insane actually! I know Denver gets some pretty crazy snowstorms in early winter and late spring, especially at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 The next month continues to look below normal. Maybe that 76-77 analog is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: The next month continues to look below normal. Maybe that 76-77 analog is on to something. Again alot of great indicators pointing to really good possibilities of BN temps in the east. IF this 3 to 4 week outlook verifies there's no doubt in my mind that someone in our CWA will see the first significant LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Wish this was a month from now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Again alot of great indicators pointing to really good possibilities of BN temps in the east. IF this 3 to 4 week outlook verifies there's no doubt in my mind that someone in our CWA will see the first significant LES event. That definitely looks to be the case, but kind of sucks were wasting so much of the lakes energy on 40s and cloudy. Lakes will be well below normal by the time it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian That system starts out tropical then transitions to extra tropical? It’s down to 974 mb over Norfolk, VA before weakening. Just what eastern South and North Carolina doesn’t need! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 0z Canadian 0z Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Interesting...somewhere in the middle of those two would be great. For tonight, it looks like a lake effect band is forming just to our south and will be coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 0z Canadian 0z Gfs That's perfect for the GFS at this lead time! I hope it stays this way for days. Just figures that a healthy band forms right over us here in CNY, just as the temps started to go up, lol. Man what horrific luck. I shouldn't even be lookin for snow yet as its before Halloween for crying out loud. To to early man, I need to wake up.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 It looks like its rain even at the higher elevations throughout CNY. We need to get into November. This cold came too early this yr and it doesn't look like its letting up any time soon, lol. Watch whatvya wish for.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 That's as strong a signal you can have for east coast cyclogenisis. Now let's watch this weekend unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Pretty sure we're gonna see a system some time next weekend or perhaps early next week but the details at this lead time are just up.in the air, unfortunately. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 17 hours ago, CNY_WX said: That system starts out tropical then transitions to extra tropical? It’s down to 974 mb over Norfolk, VA before weakening. Just what eastern South and North Carolina doesn’t need! From kbuf this morning Saturday night into Sunday features increasing chances for showers and rain. The source of this rain per global models looks to be Hurricane Willa in the eastern Pacific basin. The remnants of Willa are forecast to work east across the southern CONUS through the week then emerge somewhere east of the Carolinas or Florida before lifting north along the East Coast as a deepening extratropical cyclone. Being 6-7 days out, the models show some timing differences with the 12z EC being fastest with moisture arrival across New York followed by the GEM while the GFS keeps the system to our east with a potential for little to no rain from it. This will be interesting to watch evolve in future models runs. Otherwise, temps are forecast to run about 5 degrees below normal on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 11:48 PM, BuffaloWeather said: That happens all the time though. We get cold fronts here where it goes from 70s to 20s in a few hours with lake effect bands coming behind it dumping feet of snow. What happened today is extremely rare. I didn't think you could get a supercell like what happened over West Seneca and snow in the same day. It has to only happened a handful of times. I would like to see the radar loops from when this "tornado" happened. If the parent cell from this storm came off the lake I have to assume this was just some amped up waterspout as lake induced instability was likely cranking out a ton of spouts over the lake. This cell just happened to maintain some rotation once inland an dropped this hyrbid spout. This certainly wasnt a standard 50K foot tall supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 12:59 AM, BuffaloWeather said: What is the FV3 version of the GFS? https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3 Anyone know the accuracy of it compared to the normal GFS? Its skill scores are slightly higher than the existing gfs. It also doesn't over-intensify hurricanes, which of course the current one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Decent performance the past month...not too far under ecmwf/ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Decent performance the past month...not too far under ecmwf/ukmet. Nick you have a link for this page?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 I gotta say, also judging from that graph that the UkMet is actually out performing the Euro, no, interesting.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 34 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I would like to see the radar loops from when this "tornado" happened. If the parent cell from this storm came off the lake I have to assume this was just some amped up waterspout as lake induced instability was likely cranking out a ton of spouts over the lake. This cell just happened to maintain some rotation once inland an dropped this hyrbid spout. This certainly wasnt a standard 50K foot tall supercell. That's what I was thinking but then heard an EF1 hit Canada. So it definitely happens? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311644883_A_Unique_Cold-Season_Supercell_Produces_an_EF1_'Snownado' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I gotta say, also judging from that graph that the UkMet is actually out performing the Euro, no, interesting. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The UKMET has always been the 2nd most accurate model, GFS is 3rd I believe. Euro, UK, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Decent performance the past month...not too far under ecmwf/ukmet. Is that percentage abnormally high? 90%+ or around the norm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Nick you have a link for this page? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yep. Enjoy. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Is that percentage abnormally high? 90%+ or around the norm? Yep. Its anomaly correlation so no percentage. It goes down in the summer and up in the winter. Predictability is worse in the summer because of weaker systems and shorter wave lengths. I can't seem to find the year to year improvement plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I gotta say, also judging from that graph that the UkMet is actually out performing the Euro, no, interesting. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Yes. For a single month. Overall ecmwf does just a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yep. Its anomaly correlation so no percentage. It goes down in the summer and up in the winter. Predictability is worse in the summer because of weaker systems and shorter wave lengths. I can't seem to find the year to year improvement plot. That's really interesting, I figured it would be the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's really interesting, I figured it would be the opposite. Yeah its a bit counterintuitive in some respects. Its just that the "stakes" are higher in the winter and the sensible impacts to a poor forecast tend to be larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 https://www.wkbw.com/news/what-does-this-years-winter-have-in-store-for-western-new-york Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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