BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The fact that NOAA only uses ENSO for winter forecasts seems ridiculous to me. They are weather professionals, yet seem to ignore the many different factors that affect a season. It's weird because even if you use Ninos, they are predicting a weak one which usually results in below normal temps across NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Anyone on Facebook I recommend you following Kevin Williams... TV met in ROC he does daily Facebook live segments and really goes geek deep into some topics. Lately he has been showing the various international long range winter models and dissecting them... Today he touched on the NOAA outlook and said they favor the warm biased models and he thinks its directly the result of the first half of October showing well below average snowfall in Siberia. He doesn’t buy the solution fully verifying... Anyways some great material to watch/listen too... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 That guy is great. One of best in the nation. He was let go from channel 10 for not buying into global warming narative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 His seasonal outlooks are usually pretty good. Knows patterns very well like how bastardi does. I know alot of you don't like him but his pattern recognition is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 JB is the Man!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, tim123 said: That guy is great. One of best in the nation. He was let go from channel 10 for not buying into global warming narative Any proof that was the reason he was let go? I highly doubt he got let go for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: JB is the Man! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk He's the opposite side of the spectrum, Cold and snowy every year across the Northeast. It gets him views, hits, and $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 He has talked about it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 6 hours ago, tim123 said: That guy is great. One of best in the nation. He was let go from channel 10 for not buying into global warming narative Except global temps are rising, without any uncertainty. Do you mean he doesn’t believe in anthropogenic global warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Except global temps are rising, without any uncertainty. Do you mean he doesn’t believe in anthropogenic global warming?Yeah, and they rose in the early 20th Century as well but no one seemed too alarmed back then? So why then the huge concern now? In my mind its Cyclical, simple as that, but I dont get into the heated debate that's been present. Its my opinion is all.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Yes he believes it's long term patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, and they rose in the early 20th Century as well but no one seemed too alarmed back then? So why then the huge concern now? In my mind its Cyclical, simple as that, but I dont get into the heated debate that's been present. Its my opinion is all. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk To be clear, the actual rate of temperature increase is not an issue of opinion. But out of curiosity, what evidence would you require to be persuaded of the reality of a dramatic global temperature increase of a magnitude not seen at least in over 100,000 years. There’s evidence for it, but clearly it’s not good enough for you. What evidence would be good enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 To be clear, the actual rate of temperature increase is not an issue of opinion. But out of curiosity, what evidence would you require to be persuaded of the reality of a dramatic global temperature increase of a magnitude not seen at least in over 100,000 years. There’s evidence for it, but clearly it’s not good enough for you. What evidence would be good enough? "None" read my post. Was I NOT clear when I stated that I will not debate this preposterous hoax, Thanks. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Theres a whole thread devoted to AGW if you feel so inclined to debate the issue, thanks. I'm more concerned about our next snow chance which is Sunday, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Wait, so you’re saying that there is literally no possible evidence that would convince you that a global scale increase in temperature is real? I can say that there are plenty of things that would convince me it isn’t real. A decrease in mean global temperature, for instance. I’m not looking for a debate, but for understanding. Is “hoax” your bottom line because there is no possible evidence that could convince you otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 There are problems with AGW theory... but moreso in terms of the myriad idiotic predictions of every possible bad thing happening as a result of some warming (too hot, too cold, more bugs, less bugs, etc etc.), usually done to further some vested interest. This has developed into a robust cottage industry that i've been observing since the Summer of 1988 with a low success rate of accuracy. Regardless, earth has warmed in aggregate, even discounting the data manipulation controversies and scandals over the years. One can argue how much warming has occurred but there has been a couple of degrees of warming. Its not unreasonable to think human activity (CO2) has had an impact - although being able to parse how much of the temperature rise is soley due to human influence vs other factors (cycles etc), is impossible...and that's where politics and stupidity gets involved. And where I check out of such discussions... Frankly, given where we live, a little bit of warming isn't the worst thing that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 I did not believe in global warming until I spent almost an entire summer researching it. I debated a local Met on it (Don Paul) a little bit on the old blog. He’s a firm believer in GW and I was strongly against it. I didn’t think there was enough data to make a strong enough argument but I was wrong. I changed my mind after that summer of research. It’s real, it’s a fact. Humans are affecting this planet more then we know. Overpopulation and global warming are our two biggest issues in the next few hundred years. I’m happy I was born now and not in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 The air aloft will continue to cool Saturday night into Sunday with 850 mb temperatures nearing -10C by Sunday morning. This will certainly generate sufficient over-lake instability to support widespread northwest flow lake effect showers. Model soundings keep low level vertical temperatures profiles warm enough for mainly rain early Saturday night, before profiles cool sufficiently for a mix and then a complete change over to snow, especially for higher elevations. This will likely lead to a minor accumulation (less than 2") in any steadier or more persistent snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Alaskan vortex showing up in the Long range. That was the 2011-2012 winter that brought record low snow to the northeast. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Alaska may have one of their warmest winters on record according to some forecasters but who really knows. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Alaska may have one of their warmest winters on record according to some forecasters but who really knows. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Hopefully all that cold are will invade the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 This date 1844, 200 people died from flooding in Buffalo. http://www.maritimehistoryofthegreatlakes.ca/documents/hgl/default.asp?ID=s038 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Long range GFS but has Euro and Ensemble support of it getting pretty cold in early November. We will see if it keeps getting pushed back like the last several years. But if it came to fruition, first lake effect snow event is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 5 hours ago, Syrmax said: There are problems with AGW theory... but moreso in terms of the myriad idiotic predictions of every possible bad thing happening as a result of some warming (too hot, too cold, more bugs, less bugs, etc etc.), usually done to further some vested interest. This has developed into a robust cottage industry that i've been observing since the Summer of 1988 with a low success rate of accuracy. Regardless, earth has warmed in aggregate, even discounting the data manipulation controversies and scandals over the years. One can argue how much warming has occurred but there has been a couple of degrees of warming. Its not unreasonable to think human activity (CO2) has had an impact - although being able to parse how much of the temperature rise is soley due to human influence vs other factors (cycles etc), is impossible...and that's where politics and stupidity gets involved. And where I check out of such discussions... Frankly, given where we live, a little bit of warming isn't the worst thing that could happen. Very well said. I think the majority of rational people think similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Long range GFS but has Euro and Ensemble support of it getting pretty cold in early November. We will see if it keeps getting pushed back like the last several years. But if it came to fruition, first lake effect snow event is close. Well to that regard the GFS and other output models sniffed this pattern change we are in now a good 240 hours on advance so I'm buying this year so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Awesome day today, mostly sunny, low 60’s, dew point around 40 and light breeze, doesn’t get much better than this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Awesome day today, mostly sunny, low 60’s, dew point around 40 and light breeze, doesn’t get much better than this.. I definitely prefer a gradual decline in temps. When it went from 90 to 40 last week I got a sinus infection that lasted 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Wire to wire beginning the second week in November, mini thaw second week of January back 2 brutal winter mid-march perhaps early April.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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