CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Some sleet mixed in w/ rain just now in downtown 'Cuse. First of season. And so it begins...I didnt notice anything up here just North of 31, interesting, but then again I havent been outside yet today. It probably did, especially if it did so in kroc.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 I think most of, if not all, of the board see's their firat flakes this evening into the overnight and if it doesnt happen this time around, it'll happen this weekend, for sure, as the next even colder shot moves through.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Mini snowballs falling from the sky lol Starting to accumulate a little.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Nice band north side of Buffalo. Snow line is getting closer to city! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Flakes are flyin, a stray flake here and there, lol. That band looks like its gonna stay put right through the finger lakes overnight so its a lock they see their first flakes of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Just another look at the euro monthly output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Hey, wolfie...looks like a nice area of snow has formed over you. Looks to be moving this way. Had some nice snow showers between 6:30 and 8 as well. How is everyone else faring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Heavy graupel showers here in to rochester area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Nice band lighting up over NE Monroe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Only a couple scattered flakes/pellets here as this area is about the worst area in WNY for a NW flow. Still was nice to see any kind of frozen precip so not trying to complain. Mother in law up in Amherst had a full dusting of snow/graupel even on the roads last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Only a couple scattered flakes/pellets here as this area is about the worst area in WNY for a NW flow. Still was nice to see any kind of frozen precip so not trying to complain. Mother in law up in Amherst had a full dusting of snow/graupel even on the roads last night. Yes we did...in fact im kinda questioning the temps here...went to the store this morning at 5:15 and when I turned on the windshield wipers to wick away what I thought was just slush was frozen solid to the windshield. The hood was the same way and looking on the hot tub cover as the sun is poking through I can see the water and pellets are frozen to that as well...i didn't think that could happen at 35... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Andes, NY, last night and this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Nice shot! We had slightly less snow here in central Otsego County but still enough to whiten the ground and cover the porch. There was also some nasty black ice on the driveway and the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Checking out BGM NWS on FB this morning...some areas in the hills around Cortland got a couple inches. An individual posted the pic below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 Ellicottville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 NOAA going warmer than average winter. https://wnep.com/2018/10/18/mild-winter-heres-noaas-2018-2019-outlook/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 The winter forecast hinges largely on the 75% chance that an El Niño event — characterized by warming waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean — develops in the coming months and lasts through the season, which for meteorologists begins December 1, according to NOAA. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which could “influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.” El Nino tends to generate an active subtropical jet stream that would hike precipitation across the southern half of the country, including in Southern California, where beneficial rains could swiftly morph into threatening flooding and mudslides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 Entering a solar min, which don't really know how big of an impact it has since the coldest winter we've had in a decade was 2013-14 at a solar maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Nws almost always predicts warm every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Nws almost always predicts warm every year. This has been true for the last 25yrs as I really cant think of a yr that they didnt forecast a full torch wire to wire. As long as they know they are wrong every year, then who cares. The Farmers Almanac does a better job than the NWS does on their seasonal outlook, and that's sad. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 The winter forecast hinges largely on the 75% chance that an El Niño event — characterized by warming waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean — develops in the coming months and lasts through the season, which for meteorologists begins December 1, according to NOAA. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which could “influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.” El Nino tends to generate an active subtropical jet stream that would hike precipitation across the southern half of the country, including in Southern California, where beneficial rains could swiftly morph into threatening flooding and mudslides.El nino already exists so what are they talking about? They base their forecast every year on ENSO, so whats the difference this yr?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Nws almost always predicts warm every year. Not true. Also every year we've had record breaking temps/years. The last 8 years have been above normal temperature years aside from 2014 which was only slightly below, so technically they should go above average each year since that's the state of the planet. Global warming is real and record breaking warm temps are being set at record pace. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa’s-2016-17-winter-outlook https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2015-16-winter-outlook https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/winter-outlook-2014-2015 https://www.businessinsider.com/noaas-winter-outlook-2013-2014-2013-11 https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-noaa-forecasters-predict-cooler-wetter-north-and-warmer-drier-south https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2011-2012-winter-outlook http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2010/10/noaa-winter-outlook-strong-la-ni.html http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2009/10/noaas-2009-2010-winter-outlook-el-nino.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Well equal chances or warm. Never once have I seen chances in northeast for below average in a winter seasonal outlook in northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Well equal chances or warm. Never once have I seen chances in northeast for below average in a winter seasonal outlook That's because it doesn't happen aside from 2013-2014. It's very rare to get below normal Nov-March temps. So I can see why they go equal or above each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 I will say I disagree with this map. Still going slightly below to average temps from Dec-March, think Nov. might be warmer than average with 5-10% above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Isn't it from Dec Jan February. Either way they are bias for sure. If you followed them and we never have winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's because it doesn't happen aside from 2013-2014. It's very rare to get below normal Nov-March temps. So I can see why they go equal or above each year. Sorry but this is False. The winter of 14-15 (-4.8) was actually colder at KBUF then 13-14 (-4.0) was. Also last year was also below normal albeit slightly but we still finished at 0.7 below average for the winter and had it not been for the 6th warmest February on record (mostly because of an incredible record breaking 2 week stretch) we would have finished further below normal. I’m not saying that we’re below average often, and with global warming it definitley seems that things are on the positive anomaly side than the negative one, but to say the winter of 13-14 was the only below average winter is wrong. I too believe with a weak nino we will see average to slightly below average temperatures but could easily see that change if El Niño becomes stronger than forecast or we get stuck on the wrong end of a stubborn teleconnection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 NWS doesn't issue a forecast, they issue a probability map, which anyone with a brain can do, on a seasonal basis so I wouldnt exactly call it a forecast. When its Normal, that actually means theres an equal chance for below to above normal temps, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 The fact that NOAA only uses ENSO for winter forecasts seems ridiculous to me. They are weather professionals, yet seem to ignore the many different factors that affect a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 22 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Sorry but this is False. The winter of 14-15 (-4.8) was actually colder at KBUF then 13-14 (-4.0) was. Also last year was also below normal albeit slightly but we still finished at 0.7 below average for the winter and had it not been for the 6th warmest February on record (mostly because of an incredible record breaking 2 week stretch) we would have finished further below normal. I’m not saying that we’re below average often, and with global warming it definitley seems that things are on the positive anomaly side than the negative one, but to say the winter of 13-14 was the only below average winter is wrong. I too believe with a weak nino we will see average to slightly below average temperatures but could easily see that change if El Niño becomes stronger than forecast or we get stuck on the wrong end of a stubborn teleconnection. I use Dec-March timeframe for winter usually not Dec-Feb, maybe that's where I'm coming from. Either way only one below average year in the last 8. https://www.weather.gov/buf/coopdata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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