BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 We will struggle to make it out of the 30's on Sunday and Monday.. Quote Through this time period we will transition from slight ridging aloft, to a long wave trough of low pressure, one that will bring the coldest air of the season thus far to our region. Friday night and into Saturday a downward trend to the temperatures will take place as a shortwave passes across the region. For now, it looks like this feature will not tap into deeper moisture from the south, and the biggest impact will be a turn to colder temperatures and rain showers mixing with snow. Lake moisture will enhance these rain showers Saturday to the east and northeast of the Eastern Great Lakes. By Saturday night temperatures aloft at 850 hPa will drop to around -6 to -8C, cold enough to allow for lake effect precipitation to develop. As another shortwave deepens the trough over the Eastern Great Lakes, our flow of cold air will remain WNW and lake effect showers/snow will focus upon the western So. Tier and along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline/Finger Lakes region. By Sunday morning as the core of the cold air passes, most of the CWA will have a chance for some wet snow flakes. Highs both weekend days will only be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s...or about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Could this be the first month since April that we finish below average in the mean? Yes there were quite a few warm to even hot days the first week of the month with temperatures some 20+ degrees above normal in some of those days, however , if days like Wednesday and a good chunk of next week beginning Sunday materialize we could be looking at temps some 20 degrees below normal...will be close for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Could this be the first month since April that we finish below average in the mean? Yes there were quite a few warm to even hot days the first week of the month with temperatures some 20+ degrees above normal in some of those days, however , if days like Wednesday and a good chunk of next week beginning Sunday materialize we could be looking at temps some 20 degrees below normal...will be close for the month. Could be, but I think November ends up above normal. Wish it was reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Holy sh*t is it windy lol Must be gusting at least 40+mph , last check nearly 6,000 without power in Oswego county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 I'm riding the 02-03' analog as if my life depended on it, lol. It's nearly a spitting image in the means wrt where we are now and where we're headed. Cold last half of October only to be greeted by a warmer but near seasonal early to mid- November then the hammer comes down and crushes us right through the holidays and beyond! Wire to wire rarely ever happens. Can it happen, yes but highly unlikely. We all forget winter doesn't officially start till Dec 1st for Mets and 21st for the public. Wind is really bad as I've lost power twice now. A third time will end it. Man is it howling out there right now though. The NWS mentioned gales behind front but nothing even close to what's happening. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Yea, gusting in the lower 40’s at KFZY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Can’t wait to the see this in a month or so lol Solid band with moderate rain, some blue “specs” showing up in the higher elevations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 First frozen precipitation of the year!! In the form of Graupel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 Someone is getting snow in late October. Halloween surprise? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: How excited is too excited??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 16, 2018 Author Share Posted October 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: How excited is too excited??? Too many good signals this year. Watch it be a terrible winter to prove all the experts wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 With these 850's down to near -10C 06z Thurs through about 18z, with a mean flow out of the NW veering with time into the WNW, there should be some kind of frozen precip around the area, especially at higher elevations, The lake plain should see some action as well with those kinds of temps. The Tug is likely looking at their first trace to 2" like I said a couple days ago as temps have actually trended a bit lower than they were first progged a couple days ago. This weekend there's even a better shot at accumulations for primarilly the Tug, as a deep trough drops out of the upper mid west through the area with highs approaching 522dm and that's definitely abnormally low for this time of year for sure. Too bad there's no real moisture there to interact with these shots of below normal air, the first of the season but certainly not the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Saw my first snowflakes of the season this morning here on the Tug. My wife and I were coming home from a short ttrip to the Berkshires. When we got to Utica, it was in the mid 40s with drizzle. On the other side of Rome, in Taberg, it was raining and upper 30s. Snowflakes started mixing in once we got to Florence and continued up here in Redfield with temps in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 I know, it so far into fantasyland Disney wants to trademark it, but the hours between 300 and 364 on the GFS all day have been hinting at a deep storm that brings on the coldest air of the young season by Halloween. Why I think this is something to watch is at the very same timeframe the NAO goes negative and PNA positive as BuffaloWeather pointed out earlier. The 18z does show a cold blast where the 540 line reaches well into the south near Georgia and a decent snowfall behind a wrapped up low that gets hung up in eastern Canada. The model run itself is speculative at best but I believe it's the premise of what is trying to be shown that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Wow some nice lake effect rain bands have set up off both Erie and Ontario in the last hour or two. Both lakes have some 40+ dbz returns as well as some lightning detected which is almost surely from graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 11 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: I know, it so far into fantasyland Disney wants to trademark it, but the hours between 300 and 364 on the GFS all day have been hinting at a deep storm that brings on the coldest air of the young season by Halloween. Why I think this is something to watch is at the very same timeframe the NAO goes negative and PNA positive as BuffaloWeather pointed out earlier. The 18z does show a cold blast where the 540 line reaches well into the south near Georgia and a decent snowfall behind a wrapped up low that gets hung up in eastern Canada. The model run itself is speculative at best but I believe it's the premise of what is trying to be shown that matters. Yeah, there is a big signal around Halloween with that blocking. Looks like a retrograde low. Still way to far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 17, 2018 Author Share Posted October 17, 2018 Many first freezes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Wicked band just developed on a WNW flow, WOW. I wish it was Early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 It’s pouring here right now. The temperature has fallen about 5 degrees since we got in that band but it’s still in the mid 40s so not close to flipping. Here on the lake plain we’ll be the last to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 yes we will, so I don't expect anything till after 06z at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Old Forge seeing their first flakes of the season it looks like in the distance. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Got out first frozen of year in roc area. Graupel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Some sleet mixed in w/ rain just now in downtown 'Cuse. First of season. And so it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Graupel at UB North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Nada here just some fierce looking clouds off in the distance.. Clearing skies with sunshine overhead.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Currently in the midst of A heavy graupel shower here. It has been doing this throughout the day. Hoping for snowflakes by this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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