Thinksnow18 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: New Euro seasonal is out. Saw that in the New England forum the other day...there are alot of very excited weenies right now and im not just on board the hype train in driving the damn thing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Its gonna be a doozey, starting real early as well and shes gonna run wire to wire, I feel it, lol! A stellar season for winter weather enthusiasts is on its way, so all you snowmobile lovers and snowboarders and skiers get ready for a season to remember. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Looks like the Subtropical Jet will also be a player this yr with quite a few Miller A's and b's.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Had it been a few degrees colder, this bout would of been, of the frozen variety, cause its down right chilly our there. Can't believe on Wednesday it was in the mid 80's, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Anyone know what euro shows for november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Anyone know what euro shows for november. 4-6 feet of snow for Rochester and lots of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 That time of year fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 That time of year fellas. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 I am thinking I will see my first snowflakes of the season this upcoming week here on the Tug. At least I am hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I am thinking I will see my first snowflakes of the season this upcoming week here on the Tug. At least I am hoping... Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. When and where are you gonna be out west? Cuz I'm out west and need some adventure haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: When and where are you gonna be out west? Cuz I'm out west and need some adventure haha Late Feb/Early March me and some buddies want to go out west to ski/board. We're thinking California or Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 Snow game in Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Late Feb/Early March me and some buddies want to go out west to ski/board. We're thinking California or Colorado. Ahh. Okay. I will not be able to join you. That's when I go for my workshop and radar certification in Norman. I'm excited about that one. We NEED to get together and do a chase. Snow, severe, whatever. I'm down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Ahh. Okay. I will not be able to join you. That's when I go for my workshop and radar certification in Norman. I'm excited about that one. We NEED to get together and do a chase. Snow, severe, whatever. I'm down lol Definitely! What about Nov-Jan range for some Lake effect chases to Wolfie/Tughills house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Author Share Posted October 14, 2018 It's snowing in Minnesota/Michigan/Colorado. However, Cold/Snowy Octobers have no correlation to the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Definitely! What about Nov-Jan range for some Lake effect chases to Wolfie/Tughills house? I'll be back east for an extended vacation with my wife to see family. Maybe a day or two up in the Lakes can be in the works for mid-late January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Thinking most every one has accumulating snow come end of october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 KBUF:A secondary cold front will usher in colder temperatures Wednesday morning. Lake induced instability will increase as 850mb temperatures fall back near -5 deg C and lake effect rain showers are likely with enhancement southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this time, the mid-level trough will promote a connection from upstream lakes. Lake effect showers will persist into Wednesday night with an enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool night is expected with surface temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s and even the 20s at higher elevations. Rain may start to mix in and possibly even change over to snow at some locations. I think this has the possibility to drop our first trace/2" in areas of highest elevations in CNY. S. Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Otsego has the best chances of seeing snow in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame as they have the highest bumps but it'll be a close call in the lower elevations for sure.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Count me in too [mention=9895]MillvilleWx[/mention] when you're up this way Big game or bust lolI’m game!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 It's snowing in Minnesota/Michigan/Colorado. However, Cold/Snowy Octobers have no correlation to the winter. Nov is a good month for correlations. Some say, what happens in November, the Winter will remember, or something along those lines, lol.,Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 Record North American Snow Cover. Siberia snow cover extremely low. We will see what this winter brings in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 14 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: KBUF: A secondary cold front will usher in colder temperatures Wednesday morning. Lake induced instability will increase as 850mb temperatures fall back near -5 deg C and lake effect rain showers are likely with enhancement southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this time, the mid-level trough will promote a connection from upstream lakes. Lake effect showers will persist into Wednesday night with an enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario. A cool night is expected with surface temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s and even the 20s at higher elevations. Rain may start to mix in and possibly even change over to snow at some locations. I think this has the possibility to drop our first trace/2" in areas of highest elevations in CNY. S. Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Otsego has the best chances of seeing snow in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame as they have the highest bumps but it'll be a close call in the lower elevations for sure. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk If the lower elevations or nearly anywhere gets 2 inches of snow there will be some tree issues. Trees in the ROC area have just started to change and are still fully leafed out. Would certainly be an interesting and early first significant accumulation. It's been many years since I've seen accumulating snow in ROC before November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 One month too soon. The overall pattern will remain cold in the Great Lakes and New England over the next week to 10 days with a longwave trough position well established across eastern North America. There will be some day to day modulation, with a few brief warm-ups between fresh batches of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: For a good LES season do you need it to be AN in October generally? Is that to have a larger temp contrast between the lakes and air temperatures? Yeah, it's tough to get any good LES until November and even then usually later in the month. It's not as important off Ontario as Erie. But the greater difference in temperature between the lake and the air aloft causes intense bands in early season events. If the water is cooler by the time the first few events happen the band is not as strong. You can look through this database, which shows all the LES events. There are lots in November. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 Speaking of lake temps, just came across this interesting tidbit from one of my all time favorite LES storms. Dec 9-12 1995. The BUFKIT and BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector for most of Sunday. This made all the difference in the world for Buffalo ...as a 10 mile shift brought the heaviest snow into the city rather than keeping it over the South Towns. This could be because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models indicated. Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the Lakes. This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 Speaking of lake temps, just came across this interesting tidbit from one of my all time favorite LES storms. Dec 9-12 1995. The BUFKIT and BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector for most of Sunday. This made all the difference in the world for Buffalo ...as a 10 mile shift brought the heaviest snow into the city rather than keeping it over the South Towns. This could be because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models indicated. Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the Lakes. This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still occurs.Interesting indeed!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.