wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Suns out and things are winding down. Looks like we got just a touch over an inch, very fluffy stuff too. Over performer for what I expected to be honest, haha. Now to get ready for the first synoptic event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Rgem looks like the ggem which has been steady for a couple days now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Should be a decent storm for everyone. Perhaps with the exception of our far western friends. I liked the NWS for an area wide watch. Seems they aren’t as keen on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Canadian has also been incredibly consistent. I’ll eat my hat if NYC gets 6”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I'm in a mood today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 HRDPS shows an enhanced band moving SW into BUF. I see some credence to this. NWS disco did a hard pass on the storm. Barely even mentioned it. Could’ve the right move. IDK. They could of backed up their lack of interest with an explanation. All they say is, “thermos and qpf issues”. WTF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Should be a decent storm for everyone. Perhaps with the exception of our far western friends. I liked the NWS for an area wide watch. Seems they aren’t as keen on this storm. Im getting a bit excited to be tracking this now. Any event over 2 inches brings Toronto and the wider GTA to a standstill, and as of right now this event is showing 2-4 inches for most of the GTA. In the minds of most of the population this will go down as a winter storm if it can deliver what the models are showing To give you an example. My commute from Hamilton to Mississauga is about 40 minutes, if the snow starts earlier tomorrow (before PM rush hour) my commute could easily turn into a 2-3 hour mess on the local highways. Happens every single time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 GTA is in a tough spot for big accumulations. Very little lake effect and for whatever reason, the synoptic storms hit Ontario and shunt east. It would drive me absolutely nutz. But you guys have an economy we are all jealous of. My house, in Rochester, is worth about 90k; in Toronto, it’d be worth 250 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GTA is in a tough spot for big accumulations. Very little lake effect and for whatever reason, the synoptic storms hit Ontario and shunt east. It would drive me absolutely nutz. But you guys have an economy we are all jealous of. My house, in Rochester, is worth about 90k; in Toronto, it’d be worth 250 or so. A friend of mine in San Diego said the house I'm getting here would be worth a million there. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 All of the model outputs that are being posted need to be cut in half or even 1/3 if past experience is any indication of the future. 2-4 seems reasonable area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Made out like a bandit this morning as that band made it further south than anticipated with 4-5 quick inches making for a messy morning commute to Cortland (granted I asked for it). Here in Cortland they barely got a thing, half inch to an inch with light mood flakes all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 35 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Im getting a bit excited to be tracking this now. Any event over 2 inches brings Toronto and the wider GTA to a standstill, and as of right now this event is showing 2-4 inches for most of the GTA. In the minds of most of the population this will go down as a winter storm if it can deliver what the models are showing To give you an example. My commute from Hamilton to Mississauga is about 40 minutes, if the snow starts earlier tomorrow (before PM rush hour) my commute could easily turn into a 2-3 hour mess on the local highways. Happens every single time Brutal, if it hits Toronto that would be about double the commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 27 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: All of the model outputs that are being posted need to be cut in half or even 1/3 if past experience is any indication of the future. 2-4 seems reasonable area wide. I'm trying to figure out what will be the screwjob cause this time. Sun angle? BL temps? Omega mismatched with SGZ, weak/late slp development, NWP mis-model? So many choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Brutal, if it hits Toronto that would be about double the commute? Ya, we already have one of the worst commute times in North America so adding any snow makes it a disaster out there. Not to go off topic that much but theres been discussion that the province makes snow tires mandatory. Quebec does this, I havent dived deeper into the data to see if it reduces accidents but I would imagine it does. A lot of the GTA drivers never leave the immediate city so they drive with all seasons. Last night with only a dusting of snow from Georgian Bay there were dozens of accidents on the local highways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya, we already have one of the worst commute times in North America so adding any snow makes it a disaster out there. Not to go off topic that much but theres been discussion that the province makes snow tires mandatory. Quebec does this, I havent dived deeper into the data to see if it reduces accidents but I would imagine it does. A lot of the GTA drivers never leave the immediate city so they drive with all seasons. Last night with only a dusting of snow from Georgian Bay there were dozens of accidents on the local highways. Passing a law/regulation to require snow tires seems unnecessary (and expensive). A good set of all season radials (that aren't near end of life) is usually good enough to drive in most winter weather, in most vehicles, particularly since the advent of front wheel drive and All/4 WD. Back in the days of rear wheel drive, things were definitely more "entertaining" driving in snow (or watching others attempt to). Excessive speed and inattention are what cause most accidents whether in snow or really any conditions - there's just less margin for error on snowy/wet surfaces. And yeah, having traveled by car to Toronto for conferences a few times, I can vouch for GTA's impressive gridlock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 22 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya, we already have one of the worst commute times in North America so adding any snow makes it a disaster out there. Not to go off topic that much but theres been discussion that the province makes snow tires mandatory. Quebec does this, I havent dived deeper into the data to see if it reduces accidents but I would imagine it does. A lot of the GTA drivers never leave the immediate city so they drive with all seasons. Last night with only a dusting of snow from Georgian Bay there were dozens of accidents on the local highways. My wife and I went to a Yankee/Blue Jay game in Toronto last July. We ended up being an inning late to the game (missed an Aaron Judge homer)because the last 5 miles took us an hour. What kind of job do the road crews do keeping the roads cleared of snow? Maybe we’re spoiled because the crews here generally do a good job considering how much snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 My last few trips to Toronto I decided I couldn't take the traffic any more. The solution I found is take the QEW to just outside Hamilton, park at the Aldershot GO station and take the train to Union Station. Blissful compared to the drive. Sit on the train and read in relative peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 KBUF first call. Looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: KBUF first call. Looks pretty good to me. I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 WWA posted for all of KBUF CWA except for Niagara County. 3-5” for WNY including BUF and ROC, 5-8” SE and E of L.O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 101 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 NYZ017-018-151815- /O.CAN.KBGM.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-181114T2100Z/ /O.CON.KBGM.WS.A.0006.181115T1500Z-181116T1800Z/ Southern Cayuga-Onondaga- Including the cities of Auburn and Syracuse 101 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations from Thursday morning through early Friday afternoon of as much as 7 or 8 inches possible. Any additional lake effect snow showers will only amount to an inch or two at most this afternoon. * WHERE...Onondaga and Southern Cayuga Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 I'm building an Igloo this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I really love the look of this Satellite View and it looks like to me that guidance is a bit ahead of the system, meaning the system looks a bit further West than first anticipated. If that's in fact the case, then we should expect a bit of a westward jog at 00Z or even 18Z, if all the data has been ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 First call buffalo 4 Roc 6 Syr 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I really love the look of this Satellite View and it looks like to me that guidance is a bit ahead of the system, meaning the system looks a bit further West than first anticipated. If that's in fact the case, then we should expect a bit of a westward jog at 00Z or even 18Z, if all the data has been ingested. Isn’t that a baroclinic leaf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Yes sir, thats whats expected to pass through so that's the area to watch to see its behavior, movement, banding potential and intensity of precip within the leaf. There may be a brief period of sleet the further north one is but from about KSYR on North this is primarilly a completely frozen event but places like KITH, KBGM and Cortland have the potential of at least 6" of snow and 1" of ice, OUCH!! BAROCLINIC LEAF. A baroclinic leaf is the name given to a synoptic cloud formation that resembles the shape of a leaf. It is the lifting exerted from the low pressure system and the warm and cold fronts that produces this cloud pattern. When air is lifted to the point of saturation, then clouds will develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, tim123 said: First call buffalo 4 Roc 6 Syr 7 BUF 2.8” ROC 4.7” SYR 5.9” BGM 6.6” ELM 8.4” KFZY 6.1” KART 5.8” KJHW 4.1” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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