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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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mississaugasnow

mississaugasnow

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

gem_asnow_neus_13.png

Though nowhere close to the main part of the storm I would take that snow map in a heart beat. 3-5 inches of snow in the GTA is borderline winter storm worthy. Current forecast is for a dusting here so not getting my hopes up yet. Also unlike CNY, far WNY and Southern Ontario will be about 32F for the event 

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

All these precip maps mean nothing, especially the LE ones.  I'll believe the 8" forecasted when I see it OTG, otherwise its hoopla!

I don't take LES maps too seriously.  At least around our area.  Its more of a general idea on location and intensity/duration.  Too fickle and too many things can go wrong.

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CNY-WXFREAK

CNY-WXFREAK

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Northern Monroe now gets into the action. I’ll believe it when I see it;  that area is the most difficult region to forecast in NY. 

Wouldnt be shocked to see flags extended. 

I wouldn't worry about NE Monroe getting in on this upcoming event, as I'm worrying about my area and I'm smack dead in the middle of the 8" area and I'm still skeptical, seriously! I don't believe anything when it comes to forecasting snow from any Lake for that matter.  It does what it wants always.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 15 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Western Oswego
  counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  or evening commute.

  

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe county, mainly north of the Thruway.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 11/7/2018 at 11:32 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

I mean the potential is there. The cold air will 100% be there, synoptic support will be there, shear is an issue. But if this comes to fruition you guys will be happy. The 3 lake super connection is starting to show up next Tues/Weds. That band would produce 2-4"+ per hour. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26.png

Models consistent with this band. Post from week ago. 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

The power of lake effect: Upstate NY will be one of snowiest US spots this week

 

us-snowfall-through-wednesdayjpg-826aefef447f40c3.jpg

Syracuse, N.Y. -- Snow is expected to fall from New Mexico to Maine over the next two days, but almost nowhere as heavily as in Upstate New York.

Thanks to lake effect snow from the Great Lakes, Upstate New York and Michigan's Upper Peninsula could see close to a foot of snow in isolated areas through 7 p.m. Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.

Most areas over the 2,300-mile swath of snowfall will get an inch or two.

That long stretch of snow is caused by cold polar air dipping as far south as Texas and bumping into a warmer air mass that's pulling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

"What you're looking at here is the boundary zone of warm air moving north from the Gulf and cold air moving south from Canada," said Mark Wysocki, New York state climatologist. "You can see how that boundary stretches from the southern plains to the Great Lakes."

Another system, a coastal storm that is moving along the East Coast today, will interact with that boundary of cold and warm air. As that coastal storm moves off Cape Cod Tuesday night, it will pull cold air across the Great Lakes, generating lake effect snow in Michigan and New York.

Where the heaviest snow ends up depends upon the wind direction, Wysocki said. The National Weather Service is predicting winds from the northwest, so the heaviest snow in Upstate New York would be in Central New York. But even slight changes in wind direction could push that snow to the north or south, Wysocki said.

"It could be from Tully up to Fulton and Oswego," he said. "It's what we call a forecaster's nightmare."

Source

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I guess the more they put out, one of them has to come to fruition no, I mean how stupid , seriously!

So you would rather them continue to run a bad forecast rather than update it?  I love the fact that they are continually updating these forecasts as new data is digested into the models.  You guys have way too high of standards when it comes to the NWS.  They are guys just like us with virtually the same data doing the best they can.  I hope they update their forecasts every minute to keep things as fresh as possible.   

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Their trying to pinpoint where the heaviest snow is gonna fall within this band that's supposed to form right, so why not wait till it forms to update the forecast? how about if its in Central Oswego cty? So I guess they'll change it again if that does happen right? That was kind of my pt.

Because people have jobs, travel, hospitals, construction, etc... that depend on the forecasters expertise in predicting the weather. Forecasters allow us to plan for the weather. You cannot wait until the event is happening to put out a forecast. A guy at my dads work in West Seneca in Nov. 2014 left his employer to pick up his wife from her employer. He got on the thruway, went off the road and died due to his car behind buried and C02 poisoning. Weather is serious business, they try their best to get it right. 

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Their trying to pinpoint where the heaviest snow is gonna fall within this band that's supposed to form right, so why not wait till it forms to update the forecast? how about if its in Central Oswego cty? So I guess they'll change it again if that does happen right? That was kind of my pt.

And thats exactly what they should do.  Gone are the days when they put out a forecast twice a day and rode it regardless of what happens.  Nowcast Nowcast Nowcast.   The internet is a great medium!

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
The main event through Wednesday will be the development of a
multi-lake connection snow band that affects areas SE of Lake
Ontario. This band may have a tough time getting started this
evening, but confidence is high enough for a strong single lake
band or two separate bands moving across the region by late
tonight into Wednesday morning. A single band would be focused
squarely on an area from Northern or NE Wayne County east to
Western Oswego. All high res models pinpoint this area with peak
intensity between ~06-12Z Wednesday, which is often a period of
intensification due to shoreline convergence and/or land
breezes. There is some disagreement to how stationary the band
will be though. If it wanders, then amounts may be more spread
out and a little lower than forecast. But with peak lake effect
season underway, plus a good triple lake connection signal, will
place amounts on the higher side with 3-6 hours of up to 2"
snow rates. Some models suggest two separate bands moving
through the region overnight while others create a single band.
With the former, parts of Monroe county could see some bursts of
snow, so have placed the Rochester area into an Advisory. If a
single band results, then areas east of Rochester will have
higher amounts. HREF amounts are a little on the light side
compared to the current forecast due to some differences between
the HRW NMMB member and the NAM Nest being a little out of sync
with the HRW NSSL and ARW. The duration of this event should be
relatively short which should keep amounts from getting out of
control. Still, expect a narrow swath of around a foot of snow
with the usual variability and localized higher/lower amounts.

Storm totals within the band may approach a narrow peak of 15"
bulls-eyed somewhere from about Wolcott to Fulton and/or
Phoenix, with far less 10-20 miles away from the peak. Areas on
the north side of the band, from about Mexico to Parish should
see only a few inches. Areas to the west toward Rochester should
see upwards of about 5" with amounts decreasing to the south
and/or southwest toward the Thruway.
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