TugHillMatt Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tropical Tidbits Forecast GIF on the bottom right of the page. Oh, doh. Didn't even see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 I like the first event on Saturday better for WNY and the second event better for Tug. (Weds timeframe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 It will be interesting this weekend as I experience my first legit lake effect event here on the Tug. 6 to 8 inch range here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 12z NAM both 12k and 4K get the band up to the heart of the Southtowns for a while. With the early season bias of bands coming further north than forecasted I could see this just about making it to downtown. If I had to make a call I’d go with 1” downtown. 2-4” in the immediate Southtowns and 4-8” in the further Southtowns like Hamburg and OP then 8-12” over the Boston Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 12z NAM both 12k and 4K get the band up to the heart of the Southtowns for a while. With the early season bias of bands coming further north than forecasted I could see this just about making it to downtown. If I had to make a call I’d go with 1” downtown. 2-4” in the immediate Southtowns and 4-8” in the further Southtowns like Hamburg and OP then 8-12” over the Boston Hills. Even the low res GFS is showing it setup across central Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I'm shooting further...the lake event last December went 10 to 15 miles further north due to the warm lake waters and this is early November...im seeing a wide area of 2-4" from amherst to south buffalo where gradually we'll see 3 to 6 and then 4 to 8 as we get to hamburg o.o area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Nice track for us no doubt, but how long can the GFS keep this up, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Wow, are the Globals trying to come to some track consensus 5 days out? That would definitely up the ante for something at least minimally significant as far as accumulations go, then the backlash of LES begins in earnest, on a WNW flow with temps nearing -15 to-18C at times, for a couple days would no doubt yield some decent totals for pretty much thew whole South Shore of the Lake. Tug always gets hit no matter the wind flow so no need to mention, lol. Waiting patiently for the Euro to arrive with a similar track and temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 I do gotta say though that I do not believe we're getting anywhere near 3-4" tomorrow into Saturday mostly due to the BL profile and the surface temps reaching the mid-upper 30's so I don't see where the NWS is getting 3-4" from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 50-100 more miles to the West and its a Major event no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 30 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I do gotta say though that I do not believe we're getting anywhere near 3-4" tomorrow into Saturday mostly due to the BL profile and the surface temps reaching the mid-upper 30's so I don't see where the NWS is getting 3-4" from. KBUF clown maps almost always overstated near us for Tug LES setups. Cut totals in half. Maybe a slushy 1 or 2". Next Tuesday looks like mainly rain/mmix here in low elevations and Mohawk Valley. Probably a slopfest that amounts to not much here. Still very early in season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Short range meso models really getting that band close to the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Noice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: Short range meso models really getting that band close to the city... It appears to me by blowing up the pic that it's right over downtown...which inevitably means 5 or so miles north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Euro is definitely too warm but rates may overcome any mid lvl warmth. Still days away so details don't really matter at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 IDK, maybe their on to something for tomorrow because soundings look good for a super quick, thumping of snow for a 6-8hr period tomorrow afternoon into the night time hours. Hr 45 hr 48 That second frame is not a snow sounding for lower elevations but the Tug at that time will be taking a pounding, then the LE kicks in tomorrow evening through the night for the Tug. Nice little early event to track but next weeks is the one to watch for our area, the immediate CNY area that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 NWS has jumped on the LES train for the metro!!! They do say only 1 to 2 inches north of buffalo but the key is that the meso models are also agreeing on thus shift...starting to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: NWS has jumped on the LES train for the metro!!! They do say only 1 to 2 inches north of buffalo but the key is that the meso models are also agreeing on thus shift...starting to get excited Yep new AFD says band from northtowns into Southtowns with 1-2” in northtowns and 3-6” across Southtowns. Should be nice just to see real flakes flying again. Anything to cover the grass and I’m a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Perhaps the BTV Meso was on to something, lol. Even a broken clock is right twice a day though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Winter arrives in early/mid November Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 2pm. High near 42. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night Rain showers before 1am, then rain and snow showers between 1am and 3am, then snow showers after 3am. Low around 31. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 24 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers, mainly before 4pm. High near 36. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Veterans Day A chance of snow showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of snow showers, mixing with rain after 10am, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Snow before 11am, then rain and snow between 11am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I’d be thrilled with 3-4”. Bring it on. I really think like BuffaloWeather said, this is gonna be a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2018 Author Share Posted November 8, 2018 Just remember this when we’re torching in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 They raised totals to 4-6", lol. Man, I'd be happy with an 1' or 2 just to cover the grass like someone else said, nevermind 4-6" which would be Adv criteria, no? And it would occur during peak rush hr in all metro's, lol. Tomorrow afternoon is gonna be a mess, everywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just remember this when we’re torching in December. Wire to Wire year, but I wouldn't be surprised if we have shorts on during Christmas, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Today was definitely a transition day here. Temperature dropping during the day with occasional grauple showers. Hoping for a couple inches of synoptic snowfall tomorrow, and then more from lake effect. Looks like you Buffalo folks are going to get in on the.snow bands. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 Love this for next week's storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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