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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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southbuffalowx

southbuffalowx

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Ok fellow weenies...i know we've had our fair share of LES events in November but when is the last significant synoptic storm we've had in November??? I'm struggling to remember one!!!

I remember we got like 5-6" around Buffalo just prior to Thanksgiving in 2013 from a synoptic event. Nothing crazy, but I think that qualifies. 

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Ok fellow weenies...i know we've had our fair share of LES events in November but when is the last significant synoptic storm we've had in November??? I'm struggling to remember one!!!

November 20-21, 2016.  Rochester got 12-15 inches of snow.  It was a large storm that came through the lakes, redeveloped off the coast, then stalled for a few days.   Probably lake effect on the backside included in those totals. 

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southbuffalowx

southbuffalowx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

November 20-21, 2016.  Rochester got 12-15 inches of snow.  It was a large storm that came through the lakes, redeveloped off the coast, then stalled for a few days.   Probably lake effect on the backside included in those totals. 

I'm not sure if you could consider that a true synoptic event. If it wasn't for the lakes, there would not have been much of a storm. Here's the event synopsis from the 2016 winter summary.

A deep area of low pressure slowly traveled across southern Quebec over the weekend of the 19th and 20th. This system transported Atlantic moisture over the Eastern Great Lakes that fed abundant moisture into bands of lake effect snow that fell southeast of the Lower Great Lakes on a cold northwest flow. Nearly a foot of snow fell in spots southeast of Lake Erie, while more widespread amounts of a foot to a foot and a half fell from the Genesee Valley to the Northern Finger Lakes region. Across the southern Tug Hill region upwards to two feet of snow fell from this system.

Here is the summary for the 2013 synoptic event I just mentioned. 

A synoptic low brought widespread snow late on the 26th and through Wednesday the 27th. This storm brought several inches of snow, with upwards of a half a foot of snow found across the Genesee Valley and Eastern Lake Ontario region, and near a foot across the hills well south of Buffalo.

 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted

Is the NAM tainted or something? Why is no one else mentioning the metro LES potential yet? NWS is ignoring it... 4 & 7 both show the band setting up well south of the metro Saturday afternoon. Only slight mention was Hammer on 2. He ran their in house model with the NAM data and showed it popping the LES band over the metro early Saturday morning but he said that happening was unlikely...


.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Is the NAM tainted or something? Why is no one else mentioning the metro LES potential yet? NWS is ignoring it... 4 & 7 both show the band setting up well south of the metro Saturday afternoon. Only slight mention was Hammer on 2. He ran their in house model with the NAM data and showed it popping the LES band over the metro early Saturday morning but he said that happening was unlikely...


.

It's the NAM at the end of its range. Not the best thing to put stock in. But the Mets on TV now are terrible. 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Extended Forecast Discussion

 

As the trough shifts east, so too will the precipitation--spreading across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys along with the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and into Wednesday. In fact, there continues to be a growing signal supporting ample leading wave/frontal genesis and deep moisture return to would fuel heavy rain/convection expansion northward across the east-central then eastern U.S. Additionally, moisture feeding back into a sharpening baroclinic zone could give way to organized snow threat through the Appalachians/Ohio Valley, with ample lake effect enhancement lee of the Great Lakes and for the interior northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with system approach. Significant early season snows are possible.

WPC

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted 
By Saturday evening, low pressure will be near the northern shore of
Lake Ontario and rain will likely be ongoing across the North
Country. This is where the forecast models start to diverge. Lake
effect will quickly start off Lake Erie with strong cold air
advection moving across Western NY into Friday night. 850T`s will
be at -8 by late Friday night with upstream moisture to get
equilibrium levels to 15k. Lake effect showers will be
east/southeast mainly across the Western Southern Tier and
Southtowns. A important note, the 06/12Z NAM has been persistent in
showing more of a southwest flow for Friday night into Saturday.
This would put the lake effect band across the Niagara Frontier.

Temperatures will be falling during this time and rain will
transition to snow by Saturday morning. There is lower confidence in
the timing of the changeover as evaporative cooling will likely
cause temperatures to drop faster if there is rain/snow present.
At this time, increased precipitation probability across the Niagara
Frontier Saturday morning. Further east, lake effect will begin
quickly behind the low across Lake Ontario by Saturday morning with
similar dynamic conditions with that off Lake Erie. Again,
temperatures will be falling into the low 30`s with rain
transitioning to snow by Saturday morning. Accumulating snow will
likely begin across the Tug Hill Plateau Saturday morning.
Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the
Western Southern Tier and Tug Hill Plateau region Friday night-
Saturday. Less than an inch is of snow is possible area wide during
this time as cold air rushes into the region behind the exiting low
Saturday morning. Advisories may be needed during this time
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Extended Forecast Discussion

 

As the trough shifts east, so too will the precipitation--spreading across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys along with the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and into Wednesday. In fact, there continues to be a growing signal supporting ample leading wave/frontal genesis and deep moisture return to would fuel heavy rain/convection expansion northward across the east-central then eastern U.S. Additionally, moisture feeding back into a sharpening baroclinic zone could give way to organized snow threat through the Appalachians/Ohio Valley, with ample lake effect enhancement lee of the Great Lakes and for the interior northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with system approach. Significant early season snows are possible.

WPC 

As we work our way through Monday night into Tuesday...a deep
longwave trough digging across the southern plains to the Lower
Mississippi Valley will support a burgeoning East Coast storm. As
one would expect from this far out vantage point...there is a quite
the range of solutions being offered by the medium range ensembles.
Will use climatology and the generally accepted storm track east of
the Appalachians to have a range of pops from chc in the far west to
likely for sites east of Monroe and Livingston counties. Stay tuned.
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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted

Fun tracking the next couple weeks that's fer sure. I seriously doubt anyone sees over 1' but that's just me. I'm happy with a dusting tbh, but that synoptic system for early next week is looking more and more interesting. Looks like the Euro has some GGEM support but who really knows.

 

I didnt even know KBTV was still running that relic, lol. When was the last time that meso-model got an overhaul, lol? I doubt ever so I'd be careful taking it verbatim, but one never knows, a coup perhaps. It would be a nice coup that's for sure, lol.

 

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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29 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Fun tracking the next couple weeks that's fer sure. I seriously doubt anyone sees over 1' but that's just me. I'm happy with a dusting tbh, but that synoptic system for early next week is looking more and more interesting. Looks like the Euro has some GGEM support but who really knows.

 

I didnt even know KBTV was still running that relic, lol. When was the last time that meso-model got an overhaul, lol? I doubt ever so I'd be careful taking it verbatim, but one never knows, a coup perhaps. It would be a nice coup that's for sure, lol.

 

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

I hate that model. I think I've seen it verify a handful of times in the last decade. 

It's going to be a really close call for Buffalo and suburbs Saturday. If it hits at night/early morning and the band is strong enough I'd favor snow. If mid-day and band is a bit weaker I'd favor rain. 1-2 Degs will mean the difference between a trace-1" and headline type stuff. 

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
I hate that model. I think I've seen it verify a handful of times in the last decade. 
It's going to be a really close call for Buffalo and suburbs Saturday. If it hits at night/early morning and the band is strong enough I'd favor snow. If mid-day and band is a bit weaker I'd favor rain. 1-2 Degs will mean the difference between a trace-1" and headline type stuff. 
I'm thinking 2-4" metro, but if she stalls for a few hrs or more, then all bets are off, lol! These November LES events can be quite surprising, to say the least!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted

Don’t be knocking the BTV gotta be able to dream a little. Intensity and output l is usually way over done but it generally does a pretty good job with band placement and timing IMO...

Hopefully things clear up tomorrow when we get some more hi res in range. RGEM should catch it on tonight’s run but looking at the same time frame of the last frame it’s almost identical to the same time on the NAM and maybe a hair colder upstream... so maybe some agreement?


.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Obviously the NWS is not expecting much over the weekend when they have a mix all the way into the southern tug, for sat..

 

Saturday
Rain and snow showers before noon, then rain showers between noon and 4pm, then rain and snow showers after 4pm. High near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Posted
43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Obviously the NWS is not expecting much over the weekend when they have a mix all the way into the southern tug, for sat..

 

Saturday
Rain and snow showers before noon, then rain showers between noon and 4pm, then rain and snow showers after 4pm. High near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90% 
In the HWO:
Accumulating lake effect snow is expected Friday night and Saturday,
especially across the higher terrain.
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