BuffaloWeather Posted October 29, 2018 Author Share Posted October 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: So I have to say this above and what the ECMWF have been forecasting since about mid October is really starting to make me wonder what the CPC is looking looking at with the next month and also for the winter as a whole. Checking out the first 10 days of November does not seem torch worthy and by mid month there appear many chances for cold air intrusions and the storm track pushing a bit further south out of Canada. To me the CPC is lazily forecasting on the basis of El Nino alone and not the stength of it, position of the warmer Pacific waters off the West coast, upper level trends already, etc... I agree with you. That is why I usually only go by the CPC for their 6-10, 8-14 and sometimes 3-4 week outlooks. Those are usually spot on 80-90% of the time. Anything beyond a month is not worth mentioning in terms of overall pattern setups. For precipitation it's even less, usually anything beyond 10 days is not worth mentioning. With lake effect you can predict overall setups/cold air a little bit sooner than synoptic events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 I dont really remember anyone forecasting a torch anytime in November but I may be wrong or I may have missed it. I never thought we were headed in the AN range anytime soon as I'm riding that 02-03 analog and once Winter hit, in mid November, it stuck!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 If it was only 10° colder haha Nearest wunderground station has 0.64” of lake effect rain so far, also picked up 0.48” yesterday and 0.77” Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 We put an offer in on a house today and it got approved! Sticking in Hamburg for a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 WIVB in buffalo put out their winter outlook and of the 4 Mets 2 said normal snowfall 2 below, the same 2 said average temps that said normal snowfall and the 2 that said below normal snowfall said above normal temps...not really sure what signals they're seeing that gives them those predictions...although they are just that after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We put an offer in on a house today and it got approved! Sticking in Hamburg for a little longer. Congrats!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Real nice I guess if one lived in Old Forge, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 I'm not even going to begin looking for snow till about November 20 or right around Thanksgiving time because that's when we usually see out first measurable or accumulating event of the season.It seems as though every year winter begins later and later and ends earlier and earlier. What does that mean, who really knows, but I'm just looking for an old fashioned Winter! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Can’t worry about BL temps 240 hr out on a global model..lol It may still be to early to see snow on a w-wsw flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Erie is 1 degree below normal for the date. That is why temperatures in summer have no correlation to the lake effect season. A few weeks of below normal in Oct/Nov is all it takes. Wouldn't mind a warm up the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 On 10/29/2018 at 10:03 AM, Thinksnow18 said: So I have to say this above and what the ECMWF have been forecasting since about mid October is really starting to make me wonder what the CPC is looking looking at with the next month and also for the winter as a whole. Checking out the first 10 days of November does not seem torch worthy and by mid month there appear many chances for cold air intrusions and the storm track pushing a bit further south out of Canada. To me the CPC is lazily forecasting on the basis of El Nino alone and not the stength of it, position of the warmer Pacific waters off the West coast, upper level trends already, etc... Are they picking up on a SSW event? Anyone have the wind chart for that? Usually a 6 week lag, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Erie is 1 degree below normal for the date. That is why temperatures in summer have no correlation to the lake effect season. A few weeks of below normal in Oct/Nov is all it takes. Wouldn't mind a warm up the next few weeks. A few weeks... Erie went from a record warm temp on the 13th to below average 10 days later on the 23rd. This cold snap took off 14 degrees over a 19 day time window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 4 hours ago, vortmax said: Are they picking up on a SSW event? Anyone have the wind chart for that? Usually a 6 week lag, I believe. I can't find one, maybe BW can get one? The SSW that appears on the CFS does have support in the ECMWF for the end of November. The question is does it propagate enough to get that low to elongate more towards N.A. and drive our first cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 We should start of Nov on the chilly side and get more zonal and warm up in Mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 Looking more likely that there will be measurable lake effect snow next Fri-Sun across the Tug and Higher elevations in the Southern Tier. Still way out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 That's a legit LES event on the GFS next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 Definitely cold enough even at lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Bring it on! Really hoping it’s on to something at this time range, obviously the details will be worked out more as we move inside a week and especially within 5 days but it’s nice just to see a consistent signal for a potential event. It seems like our big storms are usually signaled in the models a good 10 days in advance so really hoping other guidance is on board with it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Excitement level is building for sure. GFS has been pretty accurate by the 10 day mark so far this fall on most of these storm systems. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 CPC analog keeps hitting on Nov 2003. Not a huge snow producer but an intense early season band that had a ton of thunder and lighting. 4-6” event with 10” our in Alden. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2003-2004&event=A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Just looking at GFS 6z from hour 216 to 240 would be a pretty long lasting event and temps not warming up for a couple days after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: CPC analog keeps hitting on Nov 2003. Not a huge snow producer but an intense early season band that had a ton of thunder and lighting. 4-6” event with 10” our in Alden. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2003-2004&event=A . Can you send me link for those analogs? I usually use CIPS, but they don't give individual analogs outside of 5-6 days. Found it, using the 8-14 day analogs. 19961105 20031125 20031120 19701118 19741112 19901120 19901125 19711031 19731125 19891106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 This is the one I am referring to...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 That's a nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a nice look. Textbook. Only about 18 more runs to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Textbook. Only about 18 more runs to go... The tracking is the best part for me. At least we’re finally in range of lake effect storms now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 That's a nice look. Keep dreaming Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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