Syrmax Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 3:20 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Didn't start at my crib till 7:30 so it hasn't been snowing for 5 hrs? That means it started around rush hr and that's just wrong, sorry bro. You all can be concerned, I'm not. My 8" I got forecasted should work out, but I may bust big time, so we'll see." Expand First flakes driving out of Syracuse we’re about 5:15pm. So, by the time it started IMBY was maybe closer to 6pm? I stopped at store for a bit. So maybe 4.5 hrs not 5. We’ve had impressive radar returns past few hours with zip sh*t to show for it. If you looked at radar closely the last couple of hours, the heavier returns were having problems moving north past Syracuse. So 4.5 hours and 1.25”...not exactly a snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Changed over to snow here around 10:15. Might be able to sneak out a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Snowing hard in Rochester. Inch a hour I'd say. Sticking with my 6 inch forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 For what it's worth nam still gives buffalo 4 to 6 inches between now and 6 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 3:29 AM, Syrmax said: First flakes driving out of Syracuse we’re about 5:15pm. So, by the time it started IMBY was maybe closer to 6pm? I stopped at store for a bit. So maybe 4.5 hrs not 5. We’ve had impressive radar returns past few hours with zip sh*t to show for it. If you looked at radar closely the last couple of hours, the heavier returns were having problems moving north past Syracuse. So 4.5 hours and 1.25”...not exactly a snowstorm... Expand Its not a convective LES band with 2-3"/hr rates, lol! Its a Synoptic event but whatever bro, when your snow blowing 10" in the AM, I'll be laughing my azz off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Remember when the NAM showed a LES storm for Buffalo during the last event for 5-6 straight runs. That model is trash, working itself towards that Burlington WRF level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 KBUF could still see 4-5" easily after 4 hrs of rain, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Snow has really picked up, huge flakes..About an inch down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 The returns are still moving South to North, lol. It hasn't even started to move East yet. We have hrs upon hrs of heavy heavy returns coming towards us. KITH has 4.5" with 12 hrs of snow left. i'm chillin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 3:39 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: KBUF could still see 4-5" easily after 4 hrs of rain, lol! Expand Radar returns south of here look decent. You can see the falling pressures near New Jersey as the coastal takes over. It allows the overriding warm air in the atmosphere from the primary low to diminish as the coastal takes over. Should be snow for most locations here on out as the primary low weakens. The primary low hung on a little longer than models predicted and as a result more warm air in the atmosphere and thus more sleet, FR, and even rain along coastal plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 3:38 AM, CNY-WXFREAK said: Its not a convective LES band with 2-3"/hr rates, lol! Its a Synoptic event but whatever bro, when your snow blowing 10" in the AM, I'll be laughing my azz off! Expand We shall see. I can see 6” or so but anything more depends on whether banding develops and where...check this radar shot out. Heavy yellow overhead my place...and I’ll say dendrite size is good...but weirdly not that many of them. Visibility about 1/3rd mile. I’m not trusting radar returns for whatever reason. Not sure if there is some mid level dry air or warm nose intrusion right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Bookmark this website. Up to date mesoanalysis page. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 I don't think your lying bro, lol, I just don't understand how your not seeing heavy snow right now when I'm 4 miles to your NW. Can there be that much of a difference that far away in a synoptic event, I think not but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Those heavy returns from Jamestown to roc is the banding and where it's going to pile up quick now. About to come into Rochester in 20 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 That's where this is from. I love the page, so awesome! copious amounts of Moisture and it hasn't closed off yet which it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Absolutely puking snow. 2”/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Based on radar I think hdps has best handle on banding. Newest run of model shows 2 bands in in roc one in syr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 3:53 AM, rochesterdave said: Absolutely puking snow. 2”/hr Expand Dave look at radar intense banding developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 3:56 AM, tim123 said: Based on radar I think hdps has best handle on banding. Newest run of model shows 2 bands in in roc one in syr Expand Those bands get stuck in the pivot. As the storm changes its trajectory from east to north, they will stall somewhere. They are probably starting that process now. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 That post Tim just made, about his BY and KSYR having the best bands would get him 65 weenies and perhaps a 24hr time out in the NE forum cause he was strictly talking about his BY, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 I love this sub-forum, so comical sometimes, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 They are brutal in New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 4:04 AM, rochesterdave said: Those bands get stuck in the pivot. As the storm changes its trajectory from east to north, they will stall somewhere. They are probably starting that process now. I hope. Perhaps it'll pivot right over Rochester for the next 6-8hrs, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/16/2018 at 4:07 AM, tim123 said: They are brutal in New England forum. So bad, lol! I dont even go in there cause I'll get banned for good, no doubt, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Hopefully the both converge right over oswego county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Talk about Passion, RLMAOSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Someone in this forum sees well over a foot with this system but I will say that Eastern PA busted big time as the snow practically has ended there, no?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Some totals in CPA were approaching 14-18" in some spots, lol, that's not happening and I hope it does right over JB's house, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Ive been out driving around the past few hours. So I’ve missed all the banter. The snow has picked up big Time the last half hour. Probably right around 1” an hour stuff with heaviest returns still south. The roads are horrific. Very few plows out. There is waaaaay more moisture over wny than I ever thought there would be with this system. I think buffalo will redeem itself yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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