Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

Well it's that time again. Everyone's favorite thread of the year. First flakes will be flying in a few weeks if the law of averages wins out. We have 2 new posters in snow-belts so should have some exciting pics/videos this winter. It will certainly be a very warm first two weeks of October. 

Looks like this winter is going to be a Weak El Nino. I went back through the years to see what that usually means for Buffalo. Weak Ninos have a higher per year 

snowfall average than any other Nino/Nina. 

The next few weeks look extremely warm. October will most likely be the 6th straight above normal month.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

FIRST SNOWFALL IN FALL:     BUFFALO AVERAGE First Flake Oct 24 First Measurable (.1" or more) Nov 8 First Inch Nov 18   EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 First Measurable (.1" or more) Oct 6, 1991 First Inch Oct 10, 1906   LATEST EVER First Measurable (.1" or more) Dec 18, 2015   First Inch Jan 3, 1923 ROCHESTER AVERAGE First Flake Oct 23 First Measurable (.1" or more) Nov 8 First Inch Nov 20   EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 First Measurable (.1" or more) Oct 12, 2006 First Inch Oct 24, 1960   LATEST EVER First Measurable (.1" or more) Dec 10, 1948   First Inch Dec 28, 2015

[BuffaloWeather]

The 3 Weak Ninos that coincide with a solar minimum are 53-54, 76-77, 77-78. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Temperatures will average well above normal during this period...as
our ol` friend the sub tropical ridge will `flex its muscles` over
the Southeastern states. This feature will combine with persistent
troughing over the far western states to create a deep southwesterly
flow that will generally keep mild air flowing into the Great Lakes
region. While temperatures will average above normal...we can
anticipate some unsettled weather...mainly during the first half of
the weekend.

Looking further down the road at next week (Oct 8-12)...there is
relatively high confidence that our temperatures will remain above
normal...similar to the normals for the first half of September. The
support for the continued warmth will come from an unusually strong
sub tropical ridge that will persist off the coast of the Carolinas

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like my beach season is getting extended. 

The ridiculous ridge modeled along the East Coast from this weekend into next week is in the top tenth of the 99th percentile for October [ECMWF].

Shown peaking at 593.4 dam, it would trail only Oct 11-12 1990 (595.3 dam), Oct 3 2012 (594.3 dam), and Oct 9 1985 (593.8 dam)

[Thinksnow18]

Without being able to do the research I wonder how each one if those winters later that year fared?

[BuffaloWeather]

25 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Without being able to do the research I wonder how each one if those winters later that year fared?

90/91 and 12/13 were terrible winters. 85/86 was above average due to that one big LES storm in January. 

[wolfie09]

At least it’s not dry, can always use the liquid..

Picked up about 1/3” of rain since last night..

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

I think the 2nd half of October we see a gradual change to more autumn type conditions. 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Without being able to do the research I wonder how each one if those winters later that year fared?

Last October was + 6.2 and November ended up being - .9 below normal. Followed by December which was brutally cold at -4.7 

[Thinksnow18]

In becoming more optimistic that as the next couple of weeks unfold we might start getting quite excited for the first crack at colder conditions. There is plenty of cold air on this side of the Arctic which is a little unusual.

[mississaugasnow]

I know heat is coming but today stayed in the middle to upper 40s in the GTA with a consistent mist. The colour change up this way is really taking off now, noticed it on my drive into work this morning. 

[Thinksnow18]

Never got out of the low 50's on the Niagara Frontier either and felt in upper 40's with northerly wind component

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Never got out of the low 50's on the Niagara Frontier either and felt in upper 40's with northerly wind component

Average high/low today is 64/47. By end of October it's 53/38. 

[Thinksnow18]

It appears that the CPC is still on board in the 3 to 4 week timeframe of things getting to a cooler than normal stretch as BuffaloWeather eluded do in an earlier post.

[BuffaloWeather]

The consistent warmth this past summer has led to several communities having their warmest 5-month stretch on record.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

This is from yesterday, so Sep 30th.

On this date in 1895, a strong storm system passed to the west and north of Buffalo. This not only generated destructive gale force winds across the Lower Great Lakes(particularly on Lake Erie), but it also produced 5 to 10 inches of heavy, wet lake effect snow across southern Erie County. The weight of the abnormally early season snow did extensive damage to orchards and other wooded areas, but this was overshadowed by the impact to the marine community. Our weather today will not be anything like this, although we can anticipate a wealth of cloud cover.

[Thinksnow18]

On 10/1/2018 at 11:40 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

The consistent warmth this past summer has led to several communities having their warmest 5-month stretch on record.

 

What are the chances we flip the script and have our coldest 5 month stretch starting in November? That would be fine by me.

[BuffaloWeather]

25 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

What are the chances we flip the script and have our coldest 5 month stretch starting in November? That would be fine by me.

It has to change at some point right? There looks to be a brief cooldown around mid month and then back to a ridge in the east. I think there are too many factors going in the way of a good winter this year. Then again Buffalo just had an above normal winter snowfall wise last year, despite a really warm February. I enjoyed last winter, December was amazing. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Modoki El Ninos
Winter	SOI
1952-53	Weak	55.9"
1953-54	Weak	89.9"
1958-59	Weak	114.5"
1976-77	Weak	199.4"
1977-78	Weak	154.3"
1979-80	Weak	68.4"
1986-87	Moderate	67.5"
1991-92	Strong	92.8"
1994-95	Weak/Moderate	74.6"
2002-03	Moderate	111.3"
2004-05	Weak	109.1"
2009-10	Moderate	74.1"

[wolfie09]

Hard to predict what the lakes will do..Look at the stats for kbuf during a weak el nino , look at the variability lol 

5 years above avg, 7 years below and that's considered the "best" enso state lol

For me i usually root for weak La nina, i like to get the northern jet more involved, we mis a lot to the south during el nino years...

[BuffaloWeather]

55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Hard to predict what the lakes will do..Look at the stats for kbuf during a weak el nino , look at the variability lol 

5 years above avg, 7 years below and that's considered the "best" enso state lol

For me i usually root for weak La nina, i like to get the northern jet more involved, we mis a lot to the south during el nino years...

Agree. It's difficult to predict any winter in terms of snowfall, so many things have to come together. However, it's a little easier to predict temperature. If we get cold air over the lakes for the majority of winter, we will have a much higher probability of higher then average snowfall. In LES areas, all it takes is 1 big storm to offset a bad winter. Look at 01-02. 83" in one storm in December in Buffalo and below average rest of the year. We still ended up way above normal. 

[BuffaloWeather]

We may lose out on some of the snow in synoptic systems to the east coast but most of this regions best snowfall years results in a pattern which results in clipper after clipper with cold air behind. We get the enhanced snow ahead and the LES behind. 

 

[Thinksnow18]

Im not sure of the winter but there was a recent time in the last decade that a very persistent EC ridge/Bermuda high was hard to displace but once it did it was gone out of our neck if the woods the remainder of winter...could I be thinking 08?

[wolfie09]

..Mother Nature to Revisit Early August Temperatures...

An anomalously strong sub tropical ridge (Bermuda High) centered
over the Outer Banks of North Carolina will guarantee that our
temperatures that average WELL above normal during this period...
particular as we push into the new work week. To start with...the
strength of the ridging is forecast to be 4 to 5 STD above normal
for this time of year...and that equates to having a >30 year return
interval. Daytime mercury readings that will reach into the 60s and
lower 70s on Sunday will climb through the 70s to around 80 (western
counties) for Columbus Day before fairly widespread 80s can be
expected for Tuesday. The latter will flirt with record
temperatures...which for Tuesday currently stand at 81 (1909) in
Buffalo and 78 (1970) in Watertown. Rochester should be safe with
their record for Tuesday at 88 (1949). The unusual warmth will be
accompanied by generally dry weather...although a few showers cannot
be ruled out on Sunday.

 

[Thinksnow18]

 

 

CPC in their prognostic discussion during the 8-14 period starts to discuss the cooler air moving into the GL with time.

[BuffaloWeather]

The best El Nino analogs.

63-64, 69-70, 86-87, 94-95, 04-05

 

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS showing the first lake response of the season next Sunday 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

What are the chances we flip the script and have our coldest 5 month stretch starting in November? That would be fine by me.

I think the chances are quite good actually!


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[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'm optimistic of a blockbuster winter season, with plenty of snow and brutally cold air. There will be, for the immediate CNY area, an over abundance of WNW -NW flow events. The Tug, either way see their average to above average snowfall pretty much every season so it seems..

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